"We foreshadowed a war in two stages: Russian invasion and then Ukrainian resistance. We assumed an eventual Ukrainian victory against an exhausted Russia."

- You and the other nutjobs who thought getting this war started by poking the Russian bear was a good idea?

"The population is around 143 million (Ukraine is about 43 million)."
- 15 million Ukrainians have left, mostly women and children, so unless men can procreate with other men, then their birthrate isn't great either.

They're dragging old men, kids, young girls and handicapped people off the street and sending them to the front.
Ukraine is destroyed and Russia already occupies most of the revenue producing parts of the country.

- The rest of it I can't even be bothered with

I see 3 outcomes here. #1/ Russia getting its ass whipped and returning tail between legs as a broken economy. #2/ At its weakest having to defend itself and its resources against a nuclear armed regional superpower, China. Who only need drive north and surround what they want to take. #3/ And Putin reviled as the most stupid leader (an enslaved) Russia has produced for decades.
Alan B.

Nobody poked the Russian bear. It invaded as a hostile and unprovoked invasion/territorial expansion.

That "poke" ("joke") just BS/Russian propaganda!

Russia was offered entry into the EU and had nothing whatsoever to fear from the west!

The bear wanted some honey and thought it would just stroll into the Ukraine and help itself to whatever it wanted. And found that raiding the hive, it was covered in a hive of stinging Ukrainian hornets.

No amount of BS propaganda will change the facts!
Alan B.

You're far too narrow minded on this issue Alan B. to even look at the facts.
It's a real shame you haven't done as much background research on this topic as you have on the thorium topic.
Older people stuck in this 'cold-war hangover' mentality are just as much responsible for the continuation of this mess as much as anyone else.

Dr. Suter is not a 'nutjob', nor is he a sage. He has an opinion - a more informed one than most of us - and he admits that the original scenario he and others came up with was wrong.

The idea that Ukraine is winning is still held by some wishful thinkers. But, Ukraine is in ruins; and even the excitable main stream media is getting bored with the whole thing.

I'm not a supporter of Russia, but Russia has a valid reason for doing what it is doing - by its lights, not those of posturing Westerners.

Upstart Ukraine is the most corrupt country in Europe, and getting the shite kicked out of it for no good reason is idiotic.

The facts are, Russia is getting its ass kicked. It's being kicked out of the Chimera and the only folk who will fight are convicted criminals. It's hurting itself as the world looks and finds alternatives for Russian oil and gas. Canadian tar fields! With more reserves than the Middle East combined!

There are other countries whose leaders are corrupt, but Nobody is going there with all their military might trying for regime change.

China plays the slow game and does have her eye on Russian oil and gas and will move when Russia is on her knees and as a broken economy. For probable pennies. I'm not self-delusional like AC or ttbn.
Alan B.

Russia has failed to occupy less than 20 per cent of Ukraine (including Crimea,

Isn't it the access to the Black Sea what this conflict is really all about ?

Hey Indyvidual,
Your cluey mate, you might be one of the only ones I've seen that actually gets it.
- Gets why Putin instantly moved on Crimea after the coup.
- Understands Russian national security interests in the Black Sea
- Understands the Wests objectives and why they went nuts over it.

So...
- like was the objective of the west for Ukraine to oust Russia from their naval base in Sevastopol in Crimea and to make it a NATO naval base as part of the objectives of their western sponsored coup?
To confine Russia into the Sea of Azov and deprive them access to the Black Sea?

Hmmmmm....
- Good job, smart cookie.

Hi AC,

Ukraine needs Crimea to be able to export goods and be a functional economy. Russia can use the Black Sea without Crimea. Russia is already breaking its agreement to allow Ukraine to export wheat. Peace based on Russia allowing Ukraine's ports to function would be unlikely to hold given Russia's history of violating agreements.

Some of the posters on this thread really ought to take a better look at the map! Neither Russia nor Ukraine needs Crimea for access to the Black Sea.
And if Ukraine had joined NATO, the Sevastopol base would've remained a Russian naval base, not a NATO one. Ukraine had a contract with Russia, and joining NATO would not have been a reason to breach that contract.

Putin has a Voldemort mentality: he sees no right or wrong; only power and those too weak to use it. And that's the only thing the wars he started have ever been about.

Hi Aidan,

Ukraine needs Russian cooperation to export its grain via the Black Sea, and it is an uncertain cooperation whilst Russia illegally occupies Crimea.

I wonder what the US would say if China or Russia did a deal with Texas or Alabama to anchor or even base a fleet in the Gulf of Mexico ?

Fester,
The extent of Russian cooperation Ukraine needs to export grain via the Black Sea amounts to not blockading nor attacking the ships. It doesn't require active cooperation, and does not depend on who has Crimea.

__________________________________________________________________________

Indy,
I expect it would block the deal on national security grounds. Unlike Ukraine, Texas and Alabama aren't sovereign nations.
Perhaps a more relevant comparison would be the US base in Cuba?

Hi Aidan

"The extent of Russian cooperation Ukraine needs to export grain via the Black Sea amounts to not blockading nor attacking the ships."

How likely is that? Less likely if Russia does not have a naval base between Ukraine and her export markets I would suggest. Russia would be no more likely to honour an agreement with Ukraine than it would be to withdraw its invading army. According to Putin's brainwashing media Russia is already fighting Nato forces as most of the Ukrainian population has fled. The irony is that Putin is rapidly destroying his war machine, so making Russia more vulnerable, which would suggest that he thinks Hell freezing over more likely than Nato invading Russia.

Hey Fester,
Ukraine has other sea ports in Odessa and Mykolaiv, for now.

Losing Crimea is the price they pay for the US schemes to put a NATO base in Sevestopol and restrict Russia from the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.
Losing Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk is the price they pay for not keeping to the Minsk agreements.
If Ukraine wants to keep fighting it will lose Odesssa and Mykolaiv Oblasts including those sea ports and they will lose Kharkiv as well.

Forgot to add info about grain deal
- Which may end in a week.

http://www.dailysabah.com/business/economy/russia-says-extending-ukraine-grain-deal-complicated

Keith,

"Ukraine and its western allies are bleeding Russia dry. Ukraine will ultimately win albeit at high cost."

Spot on.

Russia thought it could take over Ukraine in 3 weeks but instead got its arse kicked. The only reason this war is continuing, and Russia is losing 10 000s of men most of their tanks and many aircraft is that Putin will face a firing squad when everyone in Russia find our how badly Russia has lost.

Hey Fester,
I saw a train with about a dozen new T-90M's heading to the front a day or so ago.
Where's all Ukraine's new tanks again?

Oh look - US plan against Russia.
http://twitter.com/PeImeniPusha/status/1634210460999249920
Great to see people in Georia protests (and Syria) dying for US policies
The Georgian French born President who attended US Columbia University supports the protests.
Can't allow the government of the people to support a law blocking foriegn agents, otherwise Samantha power and all the US 5th column goons wouldn't be able to cause civil unrest...

- Look Georgian riot police foolishly kicking the crap out of some poor woman pro-EU protester on camera.
http://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1633656375061389312
Seems it's all going perfectly to the evil US plan - Muhahahahaha
- Must be fun to screw with other countries like this hey...

Here's those tanks
http://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1633580339678392320

Here's some Ukrainian teenagers (probably dragged off the street under protest of their mums) retreating past a destroyed ukrainian convoy.
http://twitter.com/outsukenoshinyu/status/1633801994380124161

Looks like Ukraines running out of tanks.
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1633916530512764929/photo/1

Weren't they going to send them some tanks?
Don't forget some extra cash for Zelensky

Isn't twitter fun?
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1634341810087825408
http://twitter.com/squatsons/status/1633671776529178625/photo/1

when everyone in Russia find our how badly Russia has lost.
shadowminister,
Do not underestimate Patriotism just because you never had any exposure to it !

Hi AC,

Yes, the road out of Bakhmut is very precarious, but given the losses being inflicted on the Russian and Wagner forces I can understand why the Ukrainians want to hold it for as long as they can.

Both sides are low on ammunition and equipment, and as Ukraine is preparing for a counteroffensive they will be using a minimal amount of munitions to hold the front.

Putin now has most of what's left of the Russian army in Ukraine and has expended much of Russia's guided missile and ammunition supplies. What might that suggest about his fear Russia being invaded by Nato?

I honestly don't know what the true state of each sides weapons and ammunition and troops in reserve is right now.
I'm not sure NATO wants to get involved other than proxy
- But with Polish troops it might be a different story.
Russia may still have a large fully equipped reserve force in Belarus.

Hi AC,

Russia could be a far more prosperous country than Japan, Germany, or even the United States, but that will never be whilst they are exploited by that silly kleptocracy.

AC,

If you want to see Russian equipment being destroyed live just follow:

http://twitter.com/UAWeapons You can also see rows and rows of destroyed Russian equipment.

The Train full of T90s looks awfully familiar to a shot that was put out on Russian propaganda a couple of months ago. To warm your heart there have been 14 Leopard 2 tanks delivered and another 30 T72s from old soviet stocks. The other 590 tanks will come over the next few months.

Also, some spectacular results from the new US JDAMS launched from MIG 29s. With boosters, they have a range of 70km with a 1000kg warhead and an accuracy of within 5m.

After the Russian war crimes of using missiles against civilian buildings and infrastructure, the US and its allies are looking at sending long-range missiles to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia's economy is in a tailspin.

Russia is losing this war.

Russia is losing this war.
shadowminister,
There can only be two losers in that conflict, Ukraine & the World ! It all comes down to idealism or survival of mankind !

Agree with the argument, but there have been some who argue that Russia's demographic position, or decline, is even worse than stated.

Many Russians would be living more or less permanently in EU etc., but still registered at their Russian address, hence still counted into the population while there is no functioning NOM or net migration mechanism (same for EU Schengen nations too). This leads to the suggestion that the population may be overestimated by 10%?

Further, as mentioned, decline in fertility amongst ethnic Russians but other minorities may have higher fertility rates?

Meanwhile, working age cohort passed the demographic sweet spot and a precipitous decline started pre Covid, see graph below, since then war and emigration of working age https://data.oecd.org/chart/70Ps

Andras,

Russia has trashed its economy. The sanctions are really biting, about $1T of foreign investment has fled and is unlikely to come back for decades. Its airlines are stuffed and will probably never recover as no one will ever lease planes to Russia again. Russia has lost about 200 000 men killed or permanently injured. Its army has been badly hurt and will take decades to recover. Roughly 2/3 of Russia's T72 variants have been lost and Russia is sending T62s and BT 50s into battle, both from the 1960s.

I see that there are warrants being issued for Russian war criminals. Russia has become the pariah of the world both politically and economically. No businessman would touch Russia with a barge pole.

If I was a Russian I would want to see Putin in front of a firing squad.

Shadowminister,

Russia still has a very large army in Ukraine. It is far from being a pushover. What is hurting the Russians most currently is a shortage of ammunition. Western countries need to keep up the flow of weapons to Ukraine. A counteroffensive will need a lot of weapons and good planning.

Russia still has a large army in Ukraine, but much of its fighting capability has been destroyed. In particular, Ukraine has focused on destroying its tanks, BMPs, artillery and supply networks.

For example, Russia started with about 3300 reasonably modern tanks and now has about 1500 left including several hundred upgraded T62s from the 1960s. Most of its originally trained troops have been killed or seriously wounded. The advances they have made have occurred have used waves of untrained mobilised troops with resultant horrific casualties.

Near Andrivka in the last day a big attack with 20 odd tanks was launched by the Russians but stopped after 10 tanks were destroyed and many soldiers.

Russia's economy is in serious trouble and cannot make enough equipment or ammunition to even replace 1/5th of what is used or destroyed.

Russia will lose the war and I guess that Silovik will hand over Putin for trial.