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The Forum > Article Comments > Celebrating’ the first birthday of the Russian invasion of Ukraine > Comments

Celebrating’ the first birthday of the Russian invasion of Ukraine : Comments

By Everald Compton, published 28/2/2023

There are only three things that can be celebrated at the conclusion of one year of a war that began when Russia invaded Ukraine.

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Hi AC,

"The first link showed Zelensky himself saying American men and women would have to shed their own blood to help Ukraine win the war."

According to Russian media yes Zelensky did say that, but if you listen to the whole and not the part the Russian media used, you would realise that Zelensky said that if the US did not help Ukraine fight Russian aggression it could soon be US troops fighting Russia in another country under its Nato obligation.

The Russian army is still huge and dangerous, but it seems to lack coordination. Russians are intelligent and capable, so it is of interest to me to see whether they can overcome the organisational constraints that have denied them success in Ukraine.

Nostalgia is a funny thing. Reagan and Thatcher convinced Gorbachef to ditch communism and all its failures, yet that is the future that Putin yearns for. Putin should be grateful that he and his henchmen would never have become so rich had Gorbachev not been convinced. I think that the trouble for Putin is that the Russian army is the physical representation of his macho image, else he would have gotten out of Ukraine long ago.

Another month or two and the Ukrainians should have the equipment and conditions to test the front lines again. Such a waste.
Posted by Fester, Monday, 6 March 2023 9:27:46 PM
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Hi Fester,
"According to Russian media yes Zelensky did say that, but if you listen to the whole and not the part the Russian media used, you would realise that Zelensky said that if the US did not help Ukraine fight Russian aggression it could soon be US troops fighting Russia in another country under its Nato obligation."

Ah fair enough, my mistake - I'll admit when I'm wrong
- But Zelensky's just fearmongering if he said that, Russia's not going to invade any other countries.

I think this was about Russia not losing it's naval base in Sevastopol as much as it is about protecting Russian speaking citizens.
Russia couldn't afford to have the Ukrainian regime evict Russia from it's naval base in Crimea, otherwise it would've been a NATO base there which would have had the potential to cut Russia's access off to the Black Sea, I don't know why other people don't get that.
That's why it was the first thing they moved on after the coup and the exact reason the US got all bent out of shape because of it.
Vicky Nuland and the other neocons were planning exactly that, and Putin stopped it, it's probably the exact reason why she is now the US undersecretary of state.
Russia will push back the and destroy the Ukrainian military to protect Russian speaking citizens hoping it'll force Kiev to capitulate, but they're not going to occupy the entire western part of Ukraine, I doubt they'd want to integrate the Ukrainian nationalists into the Russian Federation.
- Take Kharhiv and Odessa, maybe.

"The Russian army is still huge and dangerous, but it seems to lack coordination."
- I think they've learnt and improved in many ways since the conflict began.

"Communism"
- I think many older Russians have nostalgia for the soviet era, but it doesn't make sense nor can Russia afford to occupy countries.

"Another month or two and the Ukrainians should have the equipment and conditions to test the front lines again."
- Russia will have destroyed twice as much as they're getting by then.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 7 March 2023 2:50:36 AM
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"If the US did not help Ukraine fight Russian aggression it could soon be US troops fighting Russia in another country under its Nato obligation."
- That's still just as much of an admission Ukraine can't win, in my opinion.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 7 March 2023 2:53:25 AM
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AC,

You are definitely a retard. The only certainty is that the Russian media is spouting Putin's propaganda that bears no truth to reality. Putin has closed down any media stations that dare to tell the truth. Scott, like you, is simply parroting the Russian bullsh1t that has zero merit as does your opinion.

Russia's obsession with Bakhmut has led to the Ukrainians killing tens of 1000s of Russian soldiers and destroying more tanks and amour than Russia can build in a year. Russia is running out of tanks and is now re-equipping its army with T62s from the '50s.

Ukraine's strategy has worked and Russia is nearly completely bled dry.

Russia is losing this war.
Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 7 March 2023 5:02:22 PM
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Hi AC,

Unfortunately there is much that we don't see from the peanut gallery. I think that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was successful because they targeted depleted Russian forces in the north and were able to exploit logistical vulnerabilities in the south.

The Russian use of infantry was tying up the Ukrainian artillery, but the Ukrainians appear to be adapting to this by the greater use of mortars. This is freeing up their artillery for larger targets.

I think the Ukrainians will find it tough conducting a counteroffensive in the south, even with the logistical weaknesses of the Russians, but with enough himars and armour and good coordination they might kick a goal. Knocking out the Kerch Bridge would be a prelude I'd imagine.
Posted by Fester, Tuesday, 7 March 2023 7:25:11 PM
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Hi Fester,
"Unfortunately there is much that we don't see from the peanut gallery. I think that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was successful because they targeted depleted Russian forces in the north and were able to exploit logistical vulnerabilities in the south."

Yes that's fairly accurate I guess, but it's not the full picture.
The Russian troops were spread thin in the north, but it had to do with troops completing 6 month contracts and not renewing them.

In the south in Kherson on the western side of the Dnieper the Ukrainian counteroffensive went nowhere, it was more or less a complete failure.

Ukrainians took the land back only because Russia itself weighed up the risk of Ukrainian military flooding the entire area by blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam, as well as the logistical issues of crossing the Dnieper you mentioned and they made the decision to strategically withdraw to the east of the river and strengthen the area around Melitopol, which was prudent despite the optics of retreat; in the event of a potential Ukrainian counter offensive to cut the Crimean 'land bridge'.
The Kherson withdrawal was quite successful, but what happened in the north was a debacle.

"I think the Ukrainians will find it tough conducting a counteroffensive in the south"
Yes agreed.
Russians have put down several rows of dragons teeth and laid anti-tank mines and have just recently been building more complex defensive positions in case of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- trenches, pillboxes etc
Posted by Armchair Critic, Wednesday, 8 March 2023 3:05:35 PM
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