'Celebrating the first birthday of the Russian invasion of Ukraine'?
- With over a thousand people dead or wounded every day, there's nothing to celebrate.

'All of my comments are bleak, but factual and undeniable.'
- The article contains numerous inaccuracies, all in all the author displays a complete misunderstanding of the situation.

the author displays a complete misunderstanding of the situation.
Armchair Critic,
I have a gut feeling you're right !

"Celebrating" the Russian invasion of Ukraine? The old boy has truly lost his marbles.

Nothing here to celebrate! We can instead lament the completely unwarranted hostile invasion at the behest of a power-hungry madman!

Sure, there may be zealots who believe they can win and enslave the Ukraine, her people, territory and resources. If they were to succeed there would then be in their minds only, a need to create another then another new buffer.

At the end of the day, the west will not allow a sabre-rattling Russia to win but rather impose ever tougher sanctions on those who would pursue this war and any foreign backers, e.g., China, Iran.

I can see a situation where Russia's sworn enemy, a nuclear armed Turkey, with the largest standing army in Europe, could come in on the side of the Ukraine. And imminent!

Given it sees a now seriously weakened Russia as very beatable!

In spite of Everald's prognostations, I cannot see this ending well for Russia.

Let them threaten Turkey with nuclear devastation and another power junkie/madman will say, bring it on!
Alan B.

No country should invade another; but there is no excuse for that failed comedian posing as the president of Ukraine to prolong the conflict while he is flitting around world. Ukraine is being destroyed - for what? The ego of one silly little man, who is far more dangerous to Ukrainians than the maligned Putin. Ukrainian is the loser, not Russia, which is not being blown to bits.

Following on from ttbn this analysis of the situation in the Ukraine given on this site is somewhat different to the usual wall-to-wall Western propaganda on this terrible situation.
http://imetatronink.substack.com

Some very interesting reading there, Daffy.

Gentlemen,

Did none of you watch "Foreign Correspondent,"
the other evening? We were told that Russian media
propaganda used to be extreme, now its verging on
insane. But a group of exiled journalists are
fighting back.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022,
almost all independent media has been banned, blocked
and/or declassed "foreign agents". All others are
subject to military censorship.

All previously owned independent TV channels are
banned from broadcasting except for cable
entertainment channels. The Russian voice of "Euronews"
was suspended.

The situation in Russia is dire.

To find out the truth of what's going on folks - read
the following link:

http://abc.net.au/news/2023-02-23/russia-information-war-latvia-exiles-media-tv-rain/101956932

Yep. Get the "truth" from the ABC. As if!

Dear Ttbn,

«Ukraine is being destroyed - for what?»

For you and me.

Had "that failed comedian" and the Ukrainian people not shown such courage and sacrifice, then very soon we, our children and our grandchildren would be enslaved to the Chinese Xi dynasty.

There is nothing to celebrate about the first birthday of this world war and yes, humanity could possibly be extinct by its second birthday, but the least we can do is to thank these heroes at the front who give us all they have.

On the first anniversary of this horrible war, is there any other kind, I convey my hope for peace. I don't support Russia or Ukraine, Putin or Zelensky, but support the innocent people from both sides who are suffering because of this war.

Every day that Russia fights Russia becomes a little weaker. It is using human waves of untrained mobilized troops and while gaining a tiny amount of territory it comes at a staggering loss of about 25000 men killed a month 150 tanks lost, and many other vehicles aircraft etc that cannot be replaced.

"Russia has just one tank factory, which can produce around 20 new tanks every month.
Demand for tanks is now outstripping production by a factor of ten, according to The Economist.
Russia is losing around 150 tanks a month in Ukraine and is becoming reliant on refurbished vehicles. " (normally T62s)

Ukraine is getting nearly 600 tanks of which about 300 are state-of-the-art. The other 300 are Leopard 1's with thinner armour but with a highly accurate gun that can kill a T72

Meanwhile the Russian economy is circling the drain.

Russia is waiting for a conservative Republican in the White House, just a wild guess, could his name be Donald by any chance? Me thinks so!

Ronald Reagan:

"...but there's only one guaranteed way you can have peace -- and you can have it in the next second -- surrender." (from the iconic 'Time for Choosing' speech)

"I think all of us are agreed that war is probably man's greatest stupidity and I think peace is the dream that lives in the heart of everyone wherever he may be in the world, but unfortunately, unlike a family quarrel, it doesn't take two to make a war. It only takes one, unless the other one is prepared to surrender at the first hint of force."

ttbn,

Putin launches a war of conquest and it's Zelenski's fault? Your moral compass is way off.

Zelenski may not be as pure as the driven snow but Putin is a modern-day Hitler in pursuit of his Lebensraum with absolutely no regard for the lives of Ukrainian citizens or his own soldiers or the atrocities committed by his troops.

Paul,

As for your facile weasel words- "war bad, no one to blame" - seriously grow a spine. Interesting that you are now a Trump fanboy.

This war is Putin's misadventure and looks like it will only stop when the Russian army is smashed.

SM,

Seriously you are a know all, know nothing warmonger, where on this thread have I said that. You are a lying Trump supporter, you support violence as long as its American, you are nothing more than an apologist for murderers, you have previously supported all of America's bloody wars, claiming they are fought for the most noble of reasons. Don't come the crap, people like you don't give a stuff about Ukraine's or anyone else.

Hi Paul1405,

Trumps not all bad, he's actually been calling out those that worked so hard to create this war.

Trump accuses 'war mongers' in US State Department for 2014 Ukraine coup
http://www.firstpost.com/world/trump-accuses-war-mongers-in-us-state-department-for-2014-ukraine-coup-12190992.html

I've always openly stated I support Russia, because I oppose those neoconservative warmongers Trump speaks of that live to create these conflicts.
Those people have no reverse switch, they will just double down and keep pushing their agendas till something sticks.
- No matter how many people have to suffer, and I've shown you (all) before how it does it funding 5th columns and opposition and dissident groups through the National Endowment for Democracy.
But as each day of this conflict passes, I find myself becoming more and more anti-war.
I'd support a negotiated settlement right now if that were possible but Zelenskys masters will not allow it.
Too many people who had nothing to do with any of it end up suffering for no good reason.
Are human lives really worth dots on a map?
Neoconservatives think they are, but I do not.

The world needs to put it's foot down and stop these regime change agendas, and those who try to start them, because World War III is a really bad idea.

Hi Foxy,
"foreign agents"
Would you like to buy a 'foreign agent' T-shirt?
http://my-store-cf75bb.creator-spring.com/listing/foreign-agent?product=2

Hi AC,

It is getting a bit boggy again in Ukraine, which gives more opportunity to use atgms in the coming weeks and will make the Russian meat waves/zombie apocalypse less effective. I will be interested to see whether the western armoured vehicles can be used to neutralise the Russian guns. Even with poor accuracy and a reduced supply of ammunition they have been the most devastating weapon of the Russian army.

Unfortunately the great loss of life and destruction does not seem to be affecting Putin's resolve or popularity, so I tend to agree with shadowminister that ousting the Russian army from Ukraine is the only way to end the conflict. At least the Ukrainians now have twice the strike range that they had with the HIMARS, which will further obfuscate Russian logistics. I still think that the Ukrainians will try to take Melitopol when things dry out a bit, but they are still very short on equipment and ammunition. A war of attrition certainly. Just horrible.

Hi Armchair Critic,

This is the t-shirt that I would buy:

http://redbubble.com/i/t-shirt/STOP-PUTIN-by-KARDOL/102876357.WFLAH

Hi Fester,
I think its an interesting observation that many who support the Russian side as I do, also hope for peace and a negotiated settlement, whilst those who support Ukraine support a continuation of the war.

I think that listening to what the western news articles are saying is just an invitation to further escalation, including to the point of nuclear conflict.

As much as China is 'trying' to stay neutral, I'm not sure they will stand by and allow a Russia defeat, which would lead to a political crisis and Putin's ousting (assuming a pro-western leader could be installed which now seems increasingly unlikely) because that would leave them encircled by West.

The West carries on about Russias nuclear threats, but the honest truth of it is this, Russia is at this point not interested in using nuclear weapons right now, because the Russian homeland is not militarily threatened, BUT if the West were to engage in a successful military campaign in Crimea (which is quite large - 27,000 square kilometers), this would open the door to nuclear weapons use as per the Russian nuclear doctrine.

Let us go back prior to 2014.
Imagine you were a fly on the wall in Victoria Nulands office, and they are discussing conducting a coup in Ukraine, and talking about ousting the Russians from their naval base in Crimea, and making a NATO base to encircle Russia.
This is the mindset of the people who've created this war, which one must recognise began in 2014 not 2022.

2022 was just when Russia formally recognised the DPR and LPR as independent states, after which they had a legitimate right to accept those peoples request for assistance and enter the war to protect them. And the US and NATO have used this pretext for intervention themselves, they set the precedent.

[Cont.]
And one must also recognise that Putin first tried for internal right to self determination - as per the Minsk agreements, and when that failed and it became clear that Ukraine had no intention of honouring this agreement - I think a legitimate argument comes into place that the Ukrainian government loses the right to rule over it's Russian speaking people in the Donbass.

The people of the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia have declared by vote they want to join Russia. Further attacks against them and the use of long range weapons will just create the pretext for Russia to take more land to protect them.

The bigger question to me is this, think about Vicky Nuland sitting in her office prior to 2014, if they set about on their plan to overthrow the country, are the Russian speaking people in the east of the country likely to want to go along with it, or are they more likely to want their own autonomy and remain closer to Russia, and I think the answer here is pretty simple to understand.
- These people are going to choose Russia, and they have every right to.

So what's the big take away?
That allowing these warmongering neoconservatives to push forward their plans for regime changes ITSELF IS THE PROBLEM.
- This is the real cause of the war, an existing war which began in 2014 and which in 2022 Russia intervened in.

Russia just wants to protect both it's national interests (it's Crimean Naval base in Sevastopol) and the Russian speaking people in Ukraine, which it can be reasonable stated the Ukrainian government in Kiev has lost the right to rule over after waging 8 years of war upon them.

As long as these neoconservative liberal interventionists are allowed to do as they please for the sake of 'US interests', the world can only expect further conflicts.

Hi Foxy,
Ahh, why am I not surprised [Rolls eyes]
Nice comeback, I guess lol

It's pretty easy to make your own T-shirts at home these days.
You can buy a fairly good quality heat press on eBay for a few hundred bucks, and if you have a good quality printer you only need to buy the correct transfer sheets, you don't even need to use sublimation ink anymore, so I'm told.

Pauliar,

Now you are a lying Trump supporter and general weasel. Real peace is not going to be achieved by Pauliar's virtue signaling and weasel words.

If Russia stops fighting and withdraws the war stops immediately. If Ukraine stops fighting Ukrainians are occupied and brutally subjugated. The executions and torturing of civilians in occupied areas in Ukraine will be repeated throughout the country. If this is your version of peace, then either you are a moron or a sadist.

Russia has made it clear that it has no intention of stopping and will only stop when Russia realizes that it cannot win and that the cost of occupying Ukraine cannot be maintained.

The good news is that while Russia is making minute gains at the moment it is burning through men and material at a huge rate and its economy is in a tailspin.

shonky,

Calling for peace does not make one a moron or sadists. Of course you have always condoned war, and have no concern for those civilians dying and suffering as a consequence. least of all Ukraine's. Where were you when the Americans were killing innocent Afghans and millions more in other wars of aggression, safe on the sidelines giving three cheers no doubt, and egging them on, that's where you were!

Like some Trumped up smart-arse, you know nothing about this war, much less about anything else.

Hi AC,

Who doesn't want peace? I think it depends on your definition. If it means withdrawing Russian forces from Ukraine then Russian supporters are against peace. Also, prior to 2014 Crimea was Ukrainian territory.

Cheers

Pauliar,

You are a vacuous airhead. Your virtue signalling here is idiotic, Putin clearly wants to subjugate Ukraine and without US aid that is exactly what would happen. If you are for this "peace" then you are both a moron and a sadist.

Neville Chamberlain tried that with Hitler, and the EU tried that with the invasion of Crimea. All this did was embolden a dictator to go harder next time.

The only way to stop Russia from fighting is to prove that they cannot win. Handing over 5000 000 Ukrainian citizens to subjugation to get a temporary peace is moronic beyond reason.

Hi Fester,

"I think it depends on your definition."
It could also depend on the definition of which parts of Ukraine are now Russian.

Ultimately, Ukraine will have to pay a price in seceding land.

It's ridiculous to think that Russia is going to withdraw, leaving Russian speaking people to fend off the Ukrainian government and Crimea open to attack.
This is the price that the US, Europe and Ukrainians themselves have to pay for the folly of the US overthrowing democratically elected governments and conspiring to deliberately create a military conflict with a nuclear armed state, with their standard foreign policy of threats, bullying, regime change and military intervention.

Watch this:
Nov-2013 Pre-Maidan: Ukraine Deputy has proof of USA staging civil war
http://youtu.be/y9hOl8TuBUM

Regarding long-range weapons, they won't be coming anytime soon.
There's a difference between 'Presidential Drawdown' (which is from US stockpiles, and USAI (which is a contract for weapons to be manufactured)
Look here, under 'USAI' - 'Precision Guided Rockets'.
http://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3287992/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/
- Read the 'fine print'.

The US is now making threats against China.
What are they going to do if China gets involved?
Sanctions? Lol
- This will backfire so spectacularly it'll make the failed Russian sanctions look like a drop in the ocean for the damage western countries will bring on themselves.
If you think the Russian sanctions have backfired and placed some European countries into recession, wait until you see all of Europe suffer a complete economic collapse which will take decades to recover from, also Chinese counter sanctions against the west aren't going to go down well with western citizens, ALL the western leaders will be gone long before Putin and Xi.
There will be no wearing down the Russians and Chinese together.
China's industrial output alone is greater than the US and Europe put together, and their domestic market is already huge.
Russia has all the energy, and China has the largest industrial capacity.

Also, Ukraine's about to lose Bakhmut, (with thousands encircled) which will have a demoralising effect on Ukrainian military and possibly even cause a political crisis in Kiev.
http://youtu.be/4tpvSA9DnD8

Good post AC,

We don't always agree, but I appreciate what you post, its clear and concise, and you can see beyond the blinkered view put out by American propaganda which is lapped up by the sycophantic shadowminister.

BTW, did you hear about the suicide on the train tracks on the Cleveland line Monday at 6.30am near Wynnum Station? really bad, these things are purposely withheld from the public news. A person wrapped themselves in a blanket and lay on the tracks, shocking.

Hi Paul1405,
No, I didn't hear about that, sounds horrible, and sad for the person involved and their family.

I actually had a close friend, who I lived and worked with in Melbourne about 25 years ago who did the same thing on the train tracks near Cheltanham Station just a few months after I left and came back up to Queensland.
It's really hard to comprehend what might've been going on in his head to do such a thing.
- To actually think about it, and do it.
It was a real shock to me at the time, I wish I hadn't have left maybe he'd still be alive, we were good friends.
- And he didn't seem like a person who had any kind of life or relationship problems, past trauma or mental health issues, (though it maybe hard to tell the latter)
The only sort of closure on the issue I could have was that whatever was bothering him wasn't bothering him anymore, but it was still sad and hard to understand.

Yes they don't seem to report on these things, maybe they're concerned other people with issues might consider doing the same thing upon hearing such horrible news.

When I was about 17 me and another friend and I went down to Hillards Creek at Wellington Point, not sure if it's a sealed road there now, but it was dirt road back then.
We found someone in a car with a hose going from the exhaust into the back window.
- I don't remember us getting too close, or even if we were the ones who reported it or not, maybe.
We were just teenage boys and maybe a little too young to really understand such things.

"me and another friend and I"
I often check through my comment before I post it to check things.
- oops, Looks like I messed that one up real good...

AC,

The sanctions against Russia are working spectacularly. Russian revenues from oil have dropped 46% according to Russian statistics and their exports of other items have crashed too. With vastly increased spending Russia ran a budget deficit of about $25bn in Jan 2023 alone. With sanctions on refined products starting Feb 5, the deficit will wipe out Russian reserves by 2024.

Meanwhile, the EU has energy substitutes for Russian gas and oil and the EU is looking at a 3.5% GDP growth whereas Russia is looking at a 3% drop at least in 2023.

As for China, about 40% of its exports are to the EU and anglophone countries. A 20% tariff on all imports would cost China more than it could ever make from Russia.

Hey shadowminister
I'm guessing you got this same info from the same people who lied about Vietnam (and thought they could wear them down too, and lost), lied about WMD's in Iraq, lied about Syria, lied about coronavirus and more?

You don't ever seem to listen.
China has 1.4 billion people, do you think they have a tenny weeny domestic market that can't exist without sales to the West?
It's not a banana republic, nor is it rice paddies and huts on dirt.
They have high speed rail, where as the US rail... well were not going there.

How much stuff do you own right now that is made in China?
Probably more than what is made here.
- Think about that.

Russia and China can get what they need from each other.
Russia gets access to all the tech and goods the West is pointlessly trying to deprive it of.
While China can get a very large amount of the cheap energy it needs from Russia as well as food.
Chinese industrial output exceeds that of both the US and the EU.
- And both Russia and China are focusing on emerging markets, and China is restarting is manufacturing after the pandemic.

Look here's a chart on EU bankruptcies.
http://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1631298983166394370/photo/1
Their businesses are going broke and plenty are joining the dole queue, and cant even afford their electricity which has increased in multiples.
What a lovely trend, great way to cut ones nose off to spite ones face.
China will survive Western sanctions (though I'm sure it wants to avoid them if it can), but it's not going to allow a Russia with a US puppet ruler on it's northern border.
And they will come to Russia's aid if it has to, (Why do you think US is making an issue out of it? They are betting Russia will run short on ammunition, given enough time) but the only thing Russia is really in short supply of is drones.

Will the West survive Chinese sanctions?
Probably not, it would send all our economies back to the stone age.

This information was put out by the Russian central bank which means that it could be even worse.

The most likely scenario is that Russia will be beaten out of Ukraine incl Crimea, and in order to get Sanctions lifted will have to pay massive reparations.

Perhaps Putin will even find himself in a cage in the Hague.

AC,

Here is the story of ZTE

"In March 2017, ZTE pleaded guilty to illegally exporting U.S. technology to Iran and North Korea in violation of trade sanctions, and was fined a total of US$1.19 billion by the U.S. Department of Commerce. It was the largest-ever U.S. fine for export control violations.[26][27]

ZTE was allowed to continue working with U.S. companies, provided that it properly reprimand all employees involved in the violations. However, the Department of Commerce found that ZTE had violated these terms and made false statements regarding its compliance, having fired only 4 senior officials and still providing bonuses to 35 other employees involved in the violations. On 16 April 2018, the Department of Commerce banned U.S. companies from providing exports to ZTE for seven years.[28][29][30] At least 25% of components on recent ZTE smartphones originated from the U.S., including Qualcomm processors and certified Android software with Google Mobile Services.[31][32] An analyst stated that it would take a significant amount of effort for ZTE to redesign its products as to not use U.S.-originated components.[33]

On 9 May 2018, ZTE announced that, although it was "actively communicating with the relevant U.S. government departments" to reverse the export ban, it had suspended its "major operating activities" (including manufacturing) and trading of its shares.[32][34] .. On 7 June 2018, ZTE agreed to a settlement with the Department of Commerce in order to lift the import ban. The company agreed to pay a US$1 billion fine, place an additional US$400 million of suspended penalty money in escrow, replace its entire senior management, and establish a compliance department selected by the department.[38]"

China's economy is particularly fragile at the moment and the last thing that China needs is a trade war not only with the US but the EU as well.

As far as China's manufacturing capacity, it is on parity with the US and roughly on parity with the EU. Most of China makes can be sourced from Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam etc.

The laughable thing about this war is that Russia's GDP was only marginally bigger than Australia's and is probably smaller now and its non-oil manufacturing was mostly owned by western companies who have now abandoned Russia.

Russia's manufacturing sector is about 7% of the size of the US and even less compared to the EU let alone Canada, Australia, Taiwan etc. Most of Russia's ships were built in Ukraine as were its engines.

Without major manufacturing muscle behind it Russia cannot win. China could provide this but cannot afford to piss the US.

China primed for huge tech lead over US in 'wake-up call' for Western democracies, report finds
http://www.9news.com.au/world/china-usa-tech-updates-china-primed-for-huge-tech-lead-over-us-in-wakeup-call-for-west/aad52d23-146b-430a-8cba-5b888ee63d0b
"ASPI's Critical Technology Tracker ranks countries across 44 different technologies in a range of areas..."
The US leads in just seven of the categories, including vaccines, high performance computing and space launch systems.
But China leads across the other 37 categories and is at "high" risk of developing a monopoly in areas as important as hydrogen power, electric batteries and advanced aircraft engines."

China is Fast Outpacing U.S. STEM PhD Growth
http://cset.georgetown.edu/wp-content/uploads/China-is-Fast-Outpacing-U.S.-STEM-PhD-Growth.pdf
"China Is Projected to Graduate Nearly Twice as Many STEM PhDs as the United States by 2025"

Is Putin winning? The world order is changing in his favour
http://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is-putin-winning-the-world-order-is-changing-in-his-favour/
"Vladimir Putin is quite deliberately cultivating this alliance of nations who feel victims of western imperialism, and putting Russia at its head. The West wants to see Russia ‘as a colony’, he said in September. ‘They don’t want equal cooperation, they want to rob us.’"

America Is In Over Its Head
http://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/02/opinion/ukraine-aid-united-states-nato.html
"The greatest blunder President Vladimir Putin may have made so far in Ukraine is giving the West the impression that Russia could lose the war. The early Russian strike on Kyiv stumbled and failed. The Russian behemoth seemed not nearly as formidable as it had been made out to be. The war suddenly appeared as a face-off between a mass of disenchanted Russian incompetents and supercharged, savvy Ukrainian patriots."

China manufacturing activity surges in February
http://tinyurl.com/2p944xxa
"China's manufacturing activity surged to its highest reading in more than a decade in February, official figures showed Wednesday, as factories began to return to normal following years of Covid-19 disruption."

US gets anxious as Russia has survived war of attrition against entire NATO
http://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202303/1286442.shtml
US gets anxious as Russia has survived war of attrition against entire NATO
"The US and the West have found it much more difficult than expected to defeat Russia... Russia alone can already confront the entire West in Ukraine. If they really force China and Russia to join hands, what changes will there be in the world's military situation?"

Here's what's left of your Ukrainian military shadowminister
http://youtu.be/LeaSqg_RX9M?t=329

I told you they were just conscripting old men and handicapped people and dragging young boys off the street.
I even saw a bus load of young teenage girls in military uniform, I'm sure I showed you that already on another thread.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner Group is himself begging the Ukrainian military to evacuate them.

When you argue that 'more weapons should be sent' and to 'fight for Ukrainian soverignty' and that 'Putin should go to the Hague'
- These are the people you're sending to die.

Not only that so busy lapping up all the misinformation you're being fed you have little understanding of what's really going on.

When the Western and Ukrainian news reports that 'Russia is sending in human waves' you're actually buying into the the Wests projection;
It Ukraine that just keeps sending in thousands of men in human waves.

When they state Russia has lost 150,000+ men dead to the war, it's the Ukraine that that has lost that many of its own troops.

When they state that Russia is running out of missiles and ammunition, it Ukraine's who air defense has been destroyed and is running out of missiles and artillery shells and other supply issues.

When they say 'Russia's economy is in tatters' it's actually European economies that have fallen into recession. You see that article above stating China's production is at a 10 year high, they bought all the energy from Russia.

[Cont.]
- shadowminister,
You just don't listen, you believe the one-sided western propaganda.
- From the same people who lied about Vietnam (and thought they could wear them down too, and lost), lied about WMD's in Iraq, lied about Syria, lied about coronavirus and much, much more.
The US couldn't even beat Vietnamese in rice paddies or goat herders in Afghanistan.

And FYI, I told you before Putin has done everything by the book.
He tried for 'internal right to self determination' - i.e autonomy for the people of Donbass, the West and Ukraine did not enter into that deal in good faith.
So he recognised the DPR and LPR claims of independence after years of war against them by the Kiev regime post US sponsored coup.
'external right to self defense'
And entered the war under the pretext of collective self defense, just as NATO had set the precedent to in Kosovo.

Read this:
The 'Caroline' Affair in the Evolving International Law of Self-Defense
http://www.lawfareblog.com/caroline-affair

I think it's really sad that all you lot are so uninformed, that you don't understand all the tiny details and believe the western propaganda, and at the other end of it, all you're doing is sending more Ukrainians to die, old men, handicapped, adolescent young men, women and girls in to get slaughtered, (because that's all that's left) all because you want to 'Get Putin', who I might add has been warning against this since the NATO summit in Budapest in 2008, years prior to the Maidan.
- As well as this, all you're doing is just pushing Russia and China closer together, and destoying all western economies.

Told you all so, so many times.
- I don't support sanctions or western sponsored coups.

I made a small error in the above post.
Where I wrote: 'external right to self defense'
I should have wrote 'external right to self determination'

Source Princeton University
http://pesd.princeton.edu/node/511
Legal Aspects of Self-Determination
Introduction / Definition

"Self-determination has two aspects, internal and external. Internal self-determination is the right of the people of a state to govern themselves without outside interference. External self-determination is the right of peoples to determine their own political status and to be free of alien domination, including formation of their own independent state. However, independence is not the only possible outcome of an exercise of self-determination. In international law, the right of self-determination that became recognized in the 1960s was interpreted as the right of all colonial territories to become independent or to adopt any other status they freely chose. Ethnic or other distinct groups within colonies did not have a right to separate themselves from the "people" of the territory as a whole. Today, the right of groups to govern themselves is increasingly intertwined with human rights norms, in particular the rights of minorities and indigenous peoples. While no right to secession has yet been recognized under international law, it is possible that such a right may be accepted in the future as an exceptional measure, if a distinct group of people is systematically denied the right to participate in the government of the state or if individuals within such a group suffer systematic and gross violations of human rights that make their participation in that state impossible."

Now read that last part:
"if individuals within such a group suffer systematic and gross violations of human rights that make their participation in that state impossible."

The citizens in the Donbass were bombed for 8 years.
- They had every right to claim independence, and as independent states they were free to join the Russian Federation.
And Russia, as a member of the UN had the right to intervene under 'collective self defense'.

This is international law.
Putin followed the rules.

Anyone want to argue I'm wrong or that International Law does not apply?

AC,

I see that you have gone into full conspiracy theory mode while you quote the law, the facts you use are wrong:

1 in 1990 every oblast of Ukraine including Crimea and the Donbas voted overwhelmingly to leave the Soviet Union.
2 The Maidan revolution was homegrown, and while morally supported by the west, the 100 000s of demonstrators were genuine.
3 The occupation of the Donbas and Crimea was done by Russian soldiers and was not an uprising.
4 The vote to secede from Ukraine in Crimea and other Oblasts was rigged
5 The Russian soldiers occupying the Donbas were regularly shelling Ukraine and the Ukrainians' response was against the Russian soldiers.
6 Ukraine was never going to attack Russia, so the law of pre-emptive self-defence does not apply.

Secondly,
1 The sanctions are now biting and the Russian economy is running a heavy and unsustainable deficit.
2 Russia is losing tanks, IFVs, guns and aircraft way faster than it can replace them
3 Russia is losing 800 to 1000 men a day.
4 If Ukraine gets the 600 tanks promised it will be near parity with Russia
5 Ukraine is getting longer-range weapons from the US and is now using drones to attack assets inside Russia.

China,
1 China is impressive, but its economy is about 1/3 of the US and EU combined.
2 China is fragile now and has been running huge budget deficits to fund the economy with government debt even higher than the US. An expensive trade war with its best customers is the last thing it needs.
3 China is particularly vulnerable to sanctions as 10% of its GDP is producing goods for the US and EU, especially the more profitable goods.
4 China is highly reliant on imports of technology as the example of JTE above showed.

China supplying lethal equipment to Russia would provoke the following responses:
1 A blacklisting of any companies involved,
2 Trade sanctions on China
3 High tech weapons such as long-range missiles, fighter jets etc. delivered to Ukraine.

Russia cannot win this war.

"Russia cannot win this war."

Hitler said the same thing!

Paul,

Can you make a post that is not moronic?

P.S Hitler is not quoted saying "Russia cannot win this war" another lie by you.

I see that Russia is now pulling out BTR 50s that were retired in the 1960s as they have lost most of their modern IFVs.

Hi Ac,

Some things are not in dispute, like the front line of the conflict. If the Ukrainian army consists of old men and boys as Prigozhin suggests, then what does that say of the Russian army gaining so little ground against them? It has not moved much since the Ukrainian counteroffensives in the north and south despite Putin's mobilisation of half a million troops as you claimed.

I think that Putin is waiting for the next counteroffensive of the Ukrainians and will order a massive air strike against it. Which side is preparing and which side is desperately hanging on will become apparent in the coming months.

Hi Fester,
"Some things are not in dispute, like the front line of the conflict."
Well even that's disputable, there's Russian maps and western maps, but they're fairly close.

"...what does that say of the Russian army gaining so little ground against them?"

Each side has slightly different tactics.
Ukraine fights to defend every inch of ground no matter the cost in men and equipment;
Whereas Russia fights not only for ground but with an aim to completely destroy the Ukrainian military.
Russia will make strategic withdrawls if the cost of a potential battlefield scenario is too high, as we saw on the Kherson and Kharkiv fronts. Ukraine knows if the lose a certain area they're not likely to get it back, and it affects future planned counter-offensives.
Russia will take all the territory they want when the Ukrainian military is completely destroyed.

Zelensky said in his speech to US Congress:
"We have artillery. Yes. Thank you. Is it enough? Honestly, not really. To ensure Bakhmut is not just a stronghold that holds back the Russian army – but for the Russian army to completely pull out – more cannons and shells are needed. If so, just like the battle of Saratoga, the fight for Bakhmut will change the trajectory of our war for independence and freedom."
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/22/volodymyr-zelenskiy-speech-in-full-joint-session-us-congress

This is why I told you all that a lot of the info you're all getting is untrue, it's projection.
The truth is often the reverse of what they're saying.

Bakhmut will fall within days.
The western media will play it down saying it was not a strategically important city anyway, but that's not what Zelensky himself stated in US congress. A lot of western news is just narrative to keep up support for the war.

Ukraine has lost tens of thousands of its troops there, all for nothing.
It the biggest single battle in the modern era, and Russian mercenaries have beaten Ukraine armed and backed by the US and the entire 30 NATO countries.
- But Russia has largely destroyed a huge part of the Ukrainian military there.

Hey shadowminister,
"The Maidan revolution was homegrown, and while morally supported by the west..."
Yes the Maidan in it's inception was homegrown and peaceful.
They may have been protesting Yanukovych's reluctance to move closer to the EU if I remember correctly.
But there were also provocateurs from Right Sector and Svoboda (i.e the Ukrainian Nazis) co-opted by the West who started shooting up the place.
Later they went and burned some 180 odd people alive in the Odessa Trade building.

"MUST WATCH: Nov 2013 (pre-Maidan!): Ukraine Deputy has proof of USA staging civil war in Ukraine".
http://youtu.be/y9hOl8TuBUM

Burning of people in Odessa - #3
http://youtu.be/aXrbfjbqTsg

Zelensky Admits That Ukraine Can't Win War Without Foreign Troops
http://youtu.be/Jl4OyPwLF8w?t=165

US Wants To Fight War To The End in Ukraine
NO Negotiated Settlement Possible
http://youtu.be/ZAY902SeQyQ

Australians Shout Anti-NATO, Pro-Putin Slogans;
‘Why Should We Pay For U.S. Ambitions?’
http://youtu.be/BdeLrzUFYQQ

AC,

You post bollocks. All the links you post are by pro-Russian propaganda sites and are not worth a pinch of crap.

The fire in Odessa killed 46 people and occurred after the pro-Russian government had started shooting protesters.

The fight for Bakhmut has served its purpose in attacking fortified positions Russians have lost 3-7 men for every one Ukrainian killed. They have lost tanks, IFVs and aircraft that cannot be replaced.

Between the losses in Vuhledar and Bakhmut the Russian counter-offensive has been a disaster for the Russian army and the Ukrainian army is still strong and keen to fight.

You have been predicting the imminent fall of Bakhmut for 4 months and we are still waiting. This along with your predictions that Kherson would hold and that the Kharkiv retreat was a trap.

Russia's economy is in a tailspin and Ukraine is getting top-notch tanks and long-range weapons that devastate the Russians.

Your mind must be retarded shadowminister.
If Putin came out and said the sky is blue, you'd object and call it propaganda because Putin said it.
- Such a backwards and childish mentality.

The first link showed Zelensky himself saying American men and women would have to shed their own blood to help Ukraine win the war.
- That's an admission by Zelensky himself that Ukrainian military is not capable of gaining back all the territory on their own.

Second link might be Scott Ritter, (Pro-Russian individual) but that doesn't change the merit in what he said.
America themselves have forced Ukraine against doing a peace deal in on April 1st in Istanbul last year, Biden says they "will support Ukraine as long as it takes" and even Lindsay Graham has said they are happy to "fight to the last Ukrainian".
That means there will be NO negotiated settlement possible until one of the two armies has been completely destroyed.

All this stuff is fact.
Ukraine is making efforts to join the EU and NATO, so Russia is going to keep this going until there is no longer any kind of security threat to them.

As for the third link, I saw people in the video with akubra hats and Australian flags, you're trying to argue it didn't happen.

"Demonstrators took to the streets in cities like Sydney, Melbourne, Adelaide, Brisbane, and Perth. Thousands of pro-Putin protesters held placards saying '#IStandWithRussia" and held protests against the Australian government for providing military assistance to Ukraine to battle Russia."

"The sky's not blue dammit, you're all lying - I'm telling you it's Russian propaganda Waaaaaaahhhhh!"

- Stupid bleating sheep, grow up Baaaaa

Hi AC,

"The first link showed Zelensky himself saying American men and women would have to shed their own blood to help Ukraine win the war."

According to Russian media yes Zelensky did say that, but if you listen to the whole and not the part the Russian media used, you would realise that Zelensky said that if the US did not help Ukraine fight Russian aggression it could soon be US troops fighting Russia in another country under its Nato obligation.

The Russian army is still huge and dangerous, but it seems to lack coordination. Russians are intelligent and capable, so it is of interest to me to see whether they can overcome the organisational constraints that have denied them success in Ukraine.

Nostalgia is a funny thing. Reagan and Thatcher convinced Gorbachef to ditch communism and all its failures, yet that is the future that Putin yearns for. Putin should be grateful that he and his henchmen would never have become so rich had Gorbachev not been convinced. I think that the trouble for Putin is that the Russian army is the physical representation of his macho image, else he would have gotten out of Ukraine long ago.

Another month or two and the Ukrainians should have the equipment and conditions to test the front lines again. Such a waste.

Hi Fester,
"According to Russian media yes Zelensky did say that, but if you listen to the whole and not the part the Russian media used, you would realise that Zelensky said that if the US did not help Ukraine fight Russian aggression it could soon be US troops fighting Russia in another country under its Nato obligation."

Ah fair enough, my mistake - I'll admit when I'm wrong
- But Zelensky's just fearmongering if he said that, Russia's not going to invade any other countries.

I think this was about Russia not losing it's naval base in Sevastopol as much as it is about protecting Russian speaking citizens.
Russia couldn't afford to have the Ukrainian regime evict Russia from it's naval base in Crimea, otherwise it would've been a NATO base there which would have had the potential to cut Russia's access off to the Black Sea, I don't know why other people don't get that.
That's why it was the first thing they moved on after the coup and the exact reason the US got all bent out of shape because of it.
Vicky Nuland and the other neocons were planning exactly that, and Putin stopped it, it's probably the exact reason why she is now the US undersecretary of state.
Russia will push back the and destroy the Ukrainian military to protect Russian speaking citizens hoping it'll force Kiev to capitulate, but they're not going to occupy the entire western part of Ukraine, I doubt they'd want to integrate the Ukrainian nationalists into the Russian Federation.
- Take Kharhiv and Odessa, maybe.

"The Russian army is still huge and dangerous, but it seems to lack coordination."
- I think they've learnt and improved in many ways since the conflict began.

"Communism"
- I think many older Russians have nostalgia for the soviet era, but it doesn't make sense nor can Russia afford to occupy countries.

"Another month or two and the Ukrainians should have the equipment and conditions to test the front lines again."
- Russia will have destroyed twice as much as they're getting by then.

"If the US did not help Ukraine fight Russian aggression it could soon be US troops fighting Russia in another country under its Nato obligation."
- That's still just as much of an admission Ukraine can't win, in my opinion.

AC,

You are definitely a retard. The only certainty is that the Russian media is spouting Putin's propaganda that bears no truth to reality. Putin has closed down any media stations that dare to tell the truth. Scott, like you, is simply parroting the Russian bullsh1t that has zero merit as does your opinion.

Russia's obsession with Bakhmut has led to the Ukrainians killing tens of 1000s of Russian soldiers and destroying more tanks and amour than Russia can build in a year. Russia is running out of tanks and is now re-equipping its army with T62s from the '50s.

Ukraine's strategy has worked and Russia is nearly completely bled dry.

Russia is losing this war.

Hi AC,

Unfortunately there is much that we don't see from the peanut gallery. I think that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was successful because they targeted depleted Russian forces in the north and were able to exploit logistical vulnerabilities in the south.

The Russian use of infantry was tying up the Ukrainian artillery, but the Ukrainians appear to be adapting to this by the greater use of mortars. This is freeing up their artillery for larger targets.

I think the Ukrainians will find it tough conducting a counteroffensive in the south, even with the logistical weaknesses of the Russians, but with enough himars and armour and good coordination they might kick a goal. Knocking out the Kerch Bridge would be a prelude I'd imagine.

Hi Fester,
"Unfortunately there is much that we don't see from the peanut gallery. I think that the Ukrainian counteroffensive was successful because they targeted depleted Russian forces in the north and were able to exploit logistical vulnerabilities in the south."

Yes that's fairly accurate I guess, but it's not the full picture.
The Russian troops were spread thin in the north, but it had to do with troops completing 6 month contracts and not renewing them.

In the south in Kherson on the western side of the Dnieper the Ukrainian counteroffensive went nowhere, it was more or less a complete failure.

Ukrainians took the land back only because Russia itself weighed up the risk of Ukrainian military flooding the entire area by blowing up the Nova Kakhovka dam, as well as the logistical issues of crossing the Dnieper you mentioned and they made the decision to strategically withdraw to the east of the river and strengthen the area around Melitopol, which was prudent despite the optics of retreat; in the event of a potential Ukrainian counter offensive to cut the Crimean 'land bridge'.
The Kherson withdrawal was quite successful, but what happened in the north was a debacle.

"I think the Ukrainians will find it tough conducting a counteroffensive in the south"
Yes agreed.
Russians have put down several rows of dragons teeth and laid anti-tank mines and have just recently been building more complex defensive positions in case of a Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- trenches, pillboxes etc

AC,

Kharkiv was taken, along with many Russian prisoners and equipment such as tanks because the Ukrainians had been telling the world that they were going to take Kherson so Russia moved most of their combat troops to Kherson and left Kharkiv weakened.

Kherson was taken later because in spite of a massive Russian build-up, the Ukrainians destroyed the logistical supply routes and after some weeks of fighting the Russian lines were collapsing. As the Russians began to withdraw long before the Ukrainians reached the dam wall the "threat" was non-existent. As far as trying to cross the Dnieper River The Ukrainians never tried but moved their forces to take territory in Luhansk which they did successfully.

The next logical step in my opinion would be to flood Crimea with cheap unpiloted drones to deplete the air defences, then take out the Kerch bridge with long-range ATACMS then the rail link through Tokmak

Hey shadowminister,
"Kharkiv was taken, along with many Russian prisoners and equipment such as tanks because the Ukrainians had been telling the world that they were going to take Kherson so Russia moved most of their combat troops to Kherson and left Kharkiv weakened"

- You may be right there, I'm not entirely sure but I'll grant you that its certainly possible.
All I know it that they were short on men at the time because of troop military contracts completed and not renewed.

"...destroyed the logistical supply routes and after some weeks of fighting"
- Yes, Ukrainians destroyed the Antonivka Bridge and the other railbridge 1klm upstream with HIMARS and that forced the Russian forces to use pontoon bridges, and certainly made maintaining supply difficult for them.
(There may have been more attacks on Russian ammunition depots.)
- They were still largely holding their ground on the Western side of the Dnieper, but their advances had certainly stalled.

"As the Russians began to withdraw long before the Ukrainians reached the dam wall the 'threat' was non-existent."
- It was still a strategic risk to them.

I think the decision to withdraw was more based upon the risk of flooding from the Karkovka Dam if destroyed AS WELL AS the fact the troops were better situated in defense of Melitopol at the time.

"The next logical step in my opinion would be to flood Crimea with cheap unpiloted drones to deplete the air defences, then take out the Kerch bridge with long-range ATACMS then the rail link through Tokmak"
- I'm not sure what they're planning next but I'm sure they're planning something.
They'd want to hope to be successful and not have them shot down because once they fire them Russia will be trying to locate the launchers.
- It's still going to be a big job breaking through well established defensive lines in the south now though.

AC,

The ATACMS carries a 500kg warhead, travels at Mach 3-4 changes course frequently and will almost certainly be accompanied by drones. the chances of stopping this missile are close to zero and a single strike can take down the rail bridge.

The missile can also be fired 30-40 km from Russian lines at night and the firing platform will be long gone before the Russians can react. (which is why they haven't yet managed to destroy one).

As mentioned before Russia is losing about 150 tanks a month and 3x that of IFVs while Russia's replacements are a tiny fraction of this.

Russia's army is culminating and by the end of the year, it is more likely that Russia will be pushed out of Ukraine entirely.