Bronwyn,

Just a couple of points....

You write: "Gorbachev....was promised that NATO would not move eastward. That promise was never kept."

Its simply not true. And Gorbachev himself said so. At the time of German reunification, the promise was to not station arms or troops in the old GDR. Nothing more. And that promise was fulfilled until Putin threw it out the window by annexing Crimea.

"Gorbachev continued that “The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years.” (2010).

Putin claimed otherwise despite the facts. I'm not surprised you accepted his lie without demur.

You carry on as though the fighting that broke out in Donbass in 2014 was entirely the fault of the Ukrainian government. In fact the initial hostilities were the people of the Donbass seeking to overturn the election of 2014 through violence. When the Ukrainian authorities sought to reinstate order in their own country as is their right and duty, Putin then internationalised the conflict by arming the Donbass rebels (who were always only a subsection of that population). Many have died but that's not solely caused by the Ukrainian authorities. Its primarily caused by the Russian armed insurgency.

mhaze,

Thank you.

Well said.

Believing that Putin is a nice peace loving guy provoked into going to war by nations intent on Russia's destruction is like believing that Hitler built the gas ovens to bake bread to feed the starving masses of Europe.

Nazi Germany, fascist Italy and Imperial Japan sang a similar song of how the US and her allies were conspiring to destroy them. As with Russia, the root of the problem is a malignant dictatorship.

Putin needs to be the strong man to stay in power. Having the Russian army shown up as inferior is what will kill him, hence his constant threat of using nuclear weapons. I suspect that the Ukrainians will have a greater advantage over winter with their superior mobility and man portable weapons. Hopefully that will be the final nail in his coffin.

"I've heard that Ukraine outnumbered Russians by maybe 8 to 1 during the recent counter offensive."

I was speaking specifically in regards to the Kharkiv offensive where allied forces withdrew to the east of the Oskil River, everywhere except Izyum where 500 troops were ordered to hold off Ukrainians until reinforcements arrive.

"But it is also clear that elements of the Russia army ran at the first opportunity, leaving their equipment which is now incorporated into the Ukraine army."

- They were ordered to withdraw a few hours prior to the counter-offensive, they were spread thin and outnumbered by up to 8 to 1.

"But the main reason they achieved local numerical advantage and surprise was the feint to the south which utterly fooled the Russian military and caused them to move troops south just as the eastern offensive started."

I think they made a strategic decision to reinforce Kherson over Izyum. Izyum's purpose was to act as a staging point for moving south to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but Russians failed to break through defensive lines there, which meant it's value as strategic territory was over-rated.
Troops in Izyum were spread thin and in the process of being replaced / rotated, it was definitely a debacle there.
In Kherson though, it wasn't a fake counter-offensive, Ukraine took heavy losses.
In both offensives they lost about 12000 troops in 3 days if I remember correctly.

"Always remember when talking of this that Armchair was deriding the southern offensive as a disaster a day before its success became clear."

What exactly did they succeed in, heavy losses - for no territory taken?
The morgues in Odessa were overflowing apparently.

Referendum.
Of course... why would a Russian speaker want to vote for Russia when Ukraine wants to outlaw their language has been killing the women and kids and elderly, bombing schools and hospitals and city centres for the last 8 years in Donetsk?

How ridiculous to believe they wouldn't support the people bombing them for 8 years.
- They've actually been waiting for the Russians to come to liberate them.

Hey Fester,

"Having the Russian army shown up as inferior is what will kill him, hence his constant threat of using nuclear weapons."

He didn't make any threats, if you think he did then show me where he did.

He simply stated the current Russian nuclear doctrine, (which remains unchanged).
Russian now considers Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions as Russian territory, and will defend them as such.

Hi AC

"a statement of an intention to inflict pain, injury, damage, or other hostile action on someone in retribution for something done or not done."

Clearly our definitions are at variance, but if Putin has made no threats then why would he say "I'm not bluffing."?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/im-not-bluffing-vladimir-putin-062940622.html?guccounter=1

As for the war going to plan, the consensus before the conflict was that Ukraine would fall in a few weeks. I believe that the Russian forces planned for a 15 day war. Lyman now retaken. How long before Kherson falls?