Very interesting, but not very nice..(Shultz).

Colza, pseudonym “rape seed”. That’s interesting.

Maybe it’s time for the leftists to riot again in the US. I notice those demonstrations (sic), were anything but peaceful.

This article is another piece of thinly disguised US propaganda.

I thought there was a rule against articles submitted under pseudonyms here on OLO.

Dan

I don't know if this analysis is credible. People may have become accustomed to keeping their real views to themselves. The disgruntled Russian opposition may be a lot larger than assumed.

Personally, I believe Putin has quite massively over-reached and the Russian people are paying with a dramatic economic downturn and reduced circumstances. Putin is skating on very thin ice and has sealed his fate.

A smart man would step down now and retire to his country estate. Failing that, he may not get much older and his personal real estate permanently reduced to 6x4x4 feet. I would advise the first (smart man) option while it still remains!
Alan B.

US President Joe Biden has made it quite clear that
the removal of Putin is the only outcome that
offers any long term stability in Ukraine and the
rest of Europe.

I've started a discussion in the General Discussin
area on this subject,

Political experts tell us that a popular uprising, a
military coup, an assassination - all seem unlikely
because the Russian dictator has done about as good
a job preparing for this as any dictator could.

We're told that over the past two decades the Russian
dictator and his supporters have structured nearly
every core element of the Russian state with one eye toward
limiting threats to him and the regime.

He's arrested and killed leading dissidents, instilled fear
in the general public and made the country's leadership class
dependent on his goodwill for their continued prosperity and
safety.

He's used tactics like mass arrests, he's shut down opposition
media, cutting off social media platforms. This shows the
strengths of his regime.

Putin has taken a lot of concerted effort and actions to make
sure he's not vulnerable.

General Wesley Clark (Ret.) former NATO Allied Commander
has made it clear that Putin has taken off his mask.
That the US needs to harness global support, using the
financial power of the US and providing the unified military
support that only they can give. He says the President Biden
and his team can provide the security in this dangerous moment
and that all the world should support him.

Putin has granted Russian citizenship to
Edward Snowden. The military guy who fled
top Russia and was earlier given permanent
residency after he exposed US military secrets.

I wonder if he will now be asked to go fight on
behalf of the Russian forces in the Ukraine?

Spot on, Diver Dan. This is a crude psyop piece. The robot claims to be “a political journalist with a background in Central and East European Politics”. If it were a person who had lived in Russia and mixed with ordinary people, the best that can be said is that he/she must have been blind ,deaf and dumb. My personal experience is that Putin enjoys an extraordinary level of popular support that Biden,Truss and all can only dream about.

I think that Putin's popularity is not a dream
but a nightmare for most Russian people. Especially
the young who have access to technology and get
the truth - instead of what's being fed on the
Russian controlled media.

The thought makes me sick to think that the cowardly escapee’s from conscription will be welcomed as hero’s and afforded special privileges such as refugee status here in Australia.

Rape seed has a bright yellow flower as the author of this piece of drudge paints himself in yellow, the universal colour of cowardice.

Those escaping responsibility to Russian call up obligations should by rights and towards any normal judgement, be handed white feathers of shame, as they cross the Russian border.

The white feather brigades are not the pathetic types we need on our shores, the example brings to mind our own escapees clutching white feathers as they escaped our own call up for service in Vietnam.

Dan.

Hi FOXY,

Please see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=owlgQzqVklE

AND PLEASE TRANSLATE THE ENGLISH LYRICS OF "SAVE UKRAINE INTERNATIONALE"

TO RUSSIAN AND ASK RUSSIAN CHOIRS TO RECORD AND SING IT.

ALSO KINDLY READ THE BLURB UNDER THE SONG AND TRY TO MAKE THE SONG VIRAL

TO CONTRIBUTE TO INTERNATIONAL SOLIDARITY WITH RUSSIANS TO BRING DOWN THE PUTIN REGIME.

MANY THANKS

Hi Peace Lover,

I am sure that you have many activists, journalists,
and intellectual,s that you can contact within your
community who can help you. Of all the languages that
I have learned over the years - Russian was not one of them.

I wish you success in your attempts.

To whom it may concern:
Are you offering an opinion here, or are you trying to let off steam?
There seems to be a lot of 'flak' needing to be dodged.
Are those in its path deserving of such a response from you?
After all, they are merely offering a polite opinion about a topic?

Perhaps as a peace deal, Biden should offer Putin to stand down together for a real chance of a resolution in Ukraine. Both of them are the main figures in starting that conflict so both should play fair !

Dear Foxy and all peace lovers,

Would you kindly view "SAVE UKRAINE INTERNATIONALE' on YouTube.
Would you kindly translate the lyrics to Russian (see the English lyrics spelled out in the blurb above the comment section).
Would you then pass it on to Russian people and Russian Choirs to record it and make it go viral, prominently including Russia.
Please read all the blurb suggestions and comments and help with bringing down Putin.
Many thanks,

Peace Lovers

I must have missed something. As far as I know, Biden has not invaded another sovereign nation for the purpose of expanding the US's territory. Putin has and Biden only acts to date is to call it out and send financial, military and logistic support. As has most of the western world.

Foxy, you're right about Putin's security. Even so, he needs armed guards etc. And more than one may have loved ones murdered or disappeared by this dehumanized monster. He has to travel, and planes can be brought down with a missile.

The Russians were even more repressed under the Czars yet found the will to rise up against a cruel dictator and murder the family.

Even a worm will turn. And Putin's enemies increase by the day. If the world labels Russia as a terrorist state? The sanctions will send Russia back to the 18th century. And double and triple his domestic enemies.

And he is not a well man and he must be under a huge stress load? And that much stress can kill! As can tradition Russian fat loaded diets.

He has friends here, but they can do little than hurl abuse. And try to convince other to join a revolution to overthrow the elected government. For all the changes they get from their nutjob activities, they'd get more by pissing into the wind!
Alan B.

I have no problem with the anti-war message here ... though, as pointed out by previous posters, the name and credentials of the writer should have been included.

When, however, all the opprobrium is heaped on one perpetrator of war ... and not a mention is made of the other perpetrator involved, the message is nothing more than simplistic propaganda, rather than any serious attempt to promote world peace.

The US is every bit as much at fault here as Russia, if not more so. The US over many years has deliberately threatened and provoked Russia, until it has finally and unsurprisingly responded by taking military action. And now the US is needlessly and dangerously prolonging the conflict by arming Ukraine to the hilt and ordering it to abstain from any peace talks with Russia.

In its almost 250 year history, there have only been 16 years in which the US has not been at war somewhere in the world. The US is the driver of war in this world, not Russia. Any message of peace needs to be directed towards Biden ... and not just Putin.

Hey Alan B.

"I must have missed something. As far as I know, Biden has not invaded another sovereign nation for the purpose of expanding the US's territory. Putin has and Biden only acts to date is to call it out and send financial, military and logistic support. As has most of the western world."

That's because you're blind / naive to ways in which the US conducts its operations.
- By and large the US conducts its operations through NGO's and it's embassies and gets opposition groups to do it's dirty work.
Overthrowing other peoples countries without having to commit troops to the fight, but instead using others to stir up civil unrest.
That's why it loves democracy and civil society groups, they are tools of war - levers with which they can use to control entire nations.

What is Really Behind Iran's Unrest?
http://youtu.be/nKsTg9C9c-o

You people (author included) really need to take the blinkers off.
Your level of understanding is that of pre-schoolers.

I wonder if Russia will gain 100,000 sq klms of Ukrainian territory tomorrow.

Foxy, you only watch or read news that re-inforces your existing anti-Russia bias.

Russian's already know they are not just fighting Ukrainians, but Ukrainians as proxys by and for NATO and the entire collective west, who have openly shown their disdain for Russian people.

They are hardly going to move across and align themselves with the very people who want to destroy them.
Maybe you'll convince a few people here and there and some easily impressionable university students but that's about it.

All this, because Russian speaking people who've lived in the same place for hundreds of years choose to align themselves with Russia instead of Ukrainian NAZI's who want them dead.
- You've all gone mad, because that's how stupid this whole thing is

Peace Lover
Russians already have a song to sing.
I figure since you trade in 'stirring up trouble' I think it's only fair to do the same back.
Play it loud.
http://youtu.be/AOAtz8xWM0w

You people (author included) really need to take the blinkers off.
Armchair critic,
People, saturation- indoctrinated into their adult years & with nothing resembling culture to fall back on aren't even aware of their blinkers let alone will ever get the idea of trying to take them off !

A couple of things need to be said.

The American revolution was fought to establish a man's
right to liberty and to restrain the power of his
rulers. The American revolution thus created a concept
of law, which was, and is foreign to the system resulting
from the Bolshevik revolution in communist controlled
lands. The distinction is one between freedom, liberty,
and the right to the pursuit of happiness as opposed to the
interest, control, and domination of the state over the
individual.

Therefore to compare the US with the Soviet regime is absurd.
The conceptual differences between democratic legal
traditions and a totalitarian communist system which uses law
as a political weapon are so great, that it is
inconceivable in any matter involving political issues and
human rights. Putin understand this very well.

He has grown up under a system that continued the operation
of their concentration camps, and expanded their draconian
systems to include psychiatric wards, thereby raising
torture, suppression and murder to a science. The fact that
the process persisted was vividly disclosed to the free
world by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn.

It is also important to be aware of the accomplishments of the
Soviet secret police - a system under which Putin grew up. Which
brought death to so many.

V.I. Lenin made it clear that, in his political philosophy, law
has but one primary goal: "A law is a political measure, it
is politics." No Soviet authority or communist leader has
abandoned this concept. It has been applied in the territories
"liberated" by the Bolsheviks during the October revolution. In
the captive nations occupied by the Red Army during World War II,
and in the lands won by military force or "wars of liberation"
in Asia, Africa, the Far East, and the Caribbean. Now attempts
are being made in the Ukraine.

"Therefore to compare the US with the Soviet regime is absurd."

Foxy, fyi, the USSR collapsed in '91.

Hi AC,

I see it as a war. Russia will probably lose more troops before year end than the US did in the entire Vietnam war. How do you think Putin will weather the poor performance of the Russian army? I think that has been one of the biggest surprises in the conflict. As with Vietnam, casualties are making the war in Ukraine a hard sell.

The loss of troops on both sides is sad. The war, itself, should not have been.

Hi AC,

Putin is trying to resurrect it - starting with Ukraine.

David,

I don't buy the idea of Russia being provoked into invading Ukraine any more than I believe that Nazi Germany was provoked into invading Poland. Judging by Polish support for Ukraine, I don't think they miss their WW2 liberators so much. I think the view of the Ukrainian army is that Russia will not have a nice winter.

It is good to see that the Russian army continues to show great care in not harming Ukrainian civilians. When is Bronwyn's mate Jules going to join a Russian tank crew and put on a firework performance?

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3582797-death-toll-in-russian-missile-strike-on-humanitarian-convoy-in-zaporizhzhia-climbs-to-25.html

Fester,

Who is contending that Russia was provoked? It is sad that people on both sides are dying whatever the cause of the war. That is true for any war whatever the cause. A Ukrainian mother and a Russian mother both grieve.

Hi Fester,

It's hard to get accurate numbers on dead and wounded
- depends which side is giving the numbers.

There's a few reasons behind why Russia hasn't performed as well as expected, and if you take these into account, well they may not have performed as badly as what people are lead to believe.

Russia has been constrained somewhat by the terms of the special military operation, and there's probably not as many Russian troops on the ground as one thinks. As per the 'special military operation' it's mainly Russians providing artillery, tanks and air support to the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics.
As well as that there's Wagner Group, Chechens, Cossacks and Russian regulars.

Russians by and large have listened to and believed Putin's speeches about the west being as existential threat to Russia and have seen the way Europe has acted towards them. They see the war games in the Far East and asked why more troops haven't been sent to protect the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.

Recently during Ukraines counter-offensive, Russian troops were actually down to quite a small number, maybe as few as 50,000 - many had finished their deployments and were in the process of being replaced, I've heard that Ukraine outnumbered Russians by maybe 8 to 1 during the recent counter offensive.

Despite this, Ukraine has been taking heavy losses and may not be able to muster up enough troops for further counter-offensives.
Russia on the other hand has now moved to balance this shortfall in troop numbers, some units in the recent mobilisation are already in Ukraine.

As well as this, the 'special military operation' becomes obsolete when the 4 regions formally become a part of Russia, Ukraine will face a greater strength and determination from within the Russian military going forward.

[Cont.]

Another reason for the slow progress is that you have military units embedded in civilian areas, because of this, it takes time to move through these areas.

"I don't buy the idea of Russia being provoked into invading Ukraine"

I think the writing was on the wall enough for Russia to make a stand.
They've been saying for years that there are red lines, and the west kept ignoring and dismissing them, even though it would be going nuts if the same red lines were crossed in regards to their own national security interests.

They were killing Russian speaking citizens in Ukraine for 8+ years.
Western weapons still fall on civilians in Donetsk City on a daily basis even now.

They were arming Ukraine to the kilt, planning on joining NATO and the EU (They may as well already be a member) planning to put nukes on Russia's borders and making economic war against them, something had to give sooner or later.

If the US wasn't provoking Russia into war, then I don't know what else you would call these actions.

- And that's before we look at how the US itself overthrew the country in 2014, that got this mess started.

- This pipeline attack seems to raise the stakes though.
I feel like the blame game here is going to go on for decades.

Hi David

"Who is contending that Russia was provoked?"

Putin. Yes, it is a tragedy for all, but all the crime, death and destruction is the result of conscious decisions. Should the people making the decisions to kill, maim, kidnap and destroy be held to account, or should the disaster be treated like an earthquake or storm?

Thanks AC. I always appreciate your knowledge and detailed responses. Russia has deployed about a quarter of a million troops. My understanding is that Russian troop deployments to prevent a counteroffensive in the south left Kharkiv vulnerable, but I agree with your contention of the troop shortage for the rapid loss of territory.

I still think of Russians as being largely misled by the controlled media. I suspect that the freedoms enjoyed by citizens of Italy, Japan and Germany are greater than the freedoms enjoyed in Russia, and believe that the Russian authorities determine the freedoms of Russian citizens, not foreign entities. The mobilisation in Russia would suggest that there aren't many volunteers from the occupied areas. Annexation would seem to be a means of allowing conscription in occupied Ukraine, yet another war crime. Ukraine has been able to stop the Russian advance and now have effective means of defence, especially Himars. I think they are waiting for colder weather when the Russian army may lose mobiliity, making them vulnerable to man portable munitions that saw them ousted from the north.

Russia is a nation of educated people and rich in natural resources. It should be very wealthy and a great contributor to the world, more so than the likes of Germany or Japan. Such a waste. So sad.

Cheers

Fester,

The fact is that most of the soldiers fighting on different sides in any war feel they have no alternative. They kill, and they die.

Any war is the result of conscious decisions, but the soldiers fighting the war didn't make those decisions.

There are heroic figures like Franz Jaegerstatter who refused to fight for the Nazis and was beheaded, but most soldiers go along and hope to survive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_J%C3%A4gerst%C3%A4tter

Scum like Robert E. Lee who led the fight for slavery in the US are even honored by the victors after the war.

The soldiers in the ranks dying on both sides in Ukraine are all human, and I feel sorrow for all of them.

Hi David,

I think it pointless slaughter and tragic. Like you, I am disgusted at the popularity of Putin and his henchmen organising the slaughter. To me they are the Robert E Lees and Stonewall Jacksons of the conflict, only more depraved.

Cheers

Putin has miscalculated with Ukraine. And now Russian
citizens are sending him a message with their feet.

Putin's announcement of a "partial mobilization" in the
Ukraine war has triggered mass protests throughout the
country and launched an exodus of Russian citizens facing
the draft. Hundreds of thousands have fled across land
borders into Georgia, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia. Traffic jams
are stretching for many kilometres and its taking as long as 18
hours to reach border posts.

Russians flee the draft as the reality of the war in Ukraine
hits home. And even the Ukrainian President is encouraging
Russian soldiers to flee. A dictator can only survive as
long as he is supported. When his own people turn and run -
his time time in power is not guaranteed.

We all agree the conflict in Ukraine is truly awful and needs to come to an end as soon as possible. If we’re going to help bring this about, we need to understand the situation and apply pressure in the right areas. Simply railing against an ‘evil’ Putin and placing all the blame on him is both unhelpful and ignorant.

As pointed out by Armchair Critic, there is a long history of US provocation which has led to the current impasse. The US-instigated coup in 2014 and its installation of a pliant puppet government is the event which really divided Ukraine and turned life into hell for the Russian speakers in the Donbas. Over 14 000 have been killed by Ukrainian neo-nazis in the last eight years. No-one in the West came to their aid. The Minsk agreements signed by Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France in 2014 and 2015 would have given the Russian-speakers autonomy while allowing the Donbas to remain part of Ukraine. This was never good enough for the US and Ukraine who completely ignored these treaties. The Russian speakers in the Donbas were forced to forgo their language, their history and their safety. Many have spent the best part of the last eight years living underground to avoid the shelling. The fighting in the Donbas began long before Putin’s military action in February. The people in the Donbas had been begging him for years to save them. Putin tried to negotiate with the US and Ukraine, but was ignored.

The US provocation actually began long before 2014. In fact, many in the West never ended their Cold War mentality. Both Gorbachev and Yeltsin were conned by the West. Gorbachev made concessions to enable a unified Germany and in return was promised that NATO would not move eastward. That promise was never kept. Yeltsin was conned into mass scale privatisation with the main beneficiaries being greedy Western capitalists. The Russian economy collapsed and it was only when Putin came to power at the end of the last century that order was restored and the economy once again strengthened.

Continued ...

This is why the Russians support Putin. They know he turned their lives around and continues to ensure they live well. The stronger Russia has grown, the more determined the US has become to bring it down. Russia has long accepted the dissolution of the Soviet Union. Its actions today are not expansionist … they are all about defending Russia’s sovereignty. Russia, along with most of the rest of the world, is working towards a multipolar world order. The US is clinging on to its totally unsustainable unipolar world where it has hegemonic control and the world marches to its rules.

Russia has tried to negotiate a peace settlement with Ukraine and in March this year appeared close to achieving it until Zelensky walked away from the negotiations and has refused ever since to return to them. This confrontation will not end until both sides sit down and talk. 66 nations at the UN, mainly from the global south, have called for urgent diplomacy from both sides. Russia is willing. It’s the US which is prolonging the fighting. It continues to flood Ukraine with weapons and is urging it to fight on whatever the cost. And though there’s no clear proof as yet, the circumstantial evidence is certainly pointing to the Nordstream pipeline leaks as being an act of US sabotage. The US needs to be told to stop pouring fuel on the fire and to start encouraging Ukraine to sit down and engage diplomatically with Russia.

Those in the west who support US aggression account for little more than 10% of the world’s population. The majority of the world condemn the US arming of Ukraine and its sanctions against Russia. So yes, we should all call for restraint from Russia, but we must also urge restraint from the US and Ukraine.

For anyone interested in a different perspective here
is a link that may be of interest:

http://bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589

It's worth a read.

AC advises that "Russians by and large have listened to and believed Putin's speeches"

Given that we now have, at a minimum, 300,000 20-somethings fleeing the country rather than fight and die for Putin's imperial dreams, rather than saying 'by and large' the correct expression would be 'good-bye' and 'at large'.

Its difficult to gauge the popularity or otherwise of policies in Russia given that there are no free elections and people are reluctant to talk freely to pollsters. But with so many people prepared to go to the extreme of leaving their homeland rather than fight its wars, I think we can draw two conclusions:

1. The war is utterly unpopular with at least a sizeable section of the community
2. The Russian people don't see the Ukrainians and/or their backers as existential threats to Mother Russia

AC advises that "I've heard that Ukraine outnumbered Russians by maybe 8 to 1 during the recent counter offensive."

There are two types of statistics - those you look up and those you make up. That was the latter.

No offensive can succeed against a reasonable well motivated and dug in defence without a 3 to 1 advantage. Perhaps Ukraine achieved that on occasion in the eastern Ukraine offensive. But it is also clear that elements of the Russia army ran at the first opportunity, leaving their equipment which is now incorporated into the Ukraine army.

But the main reason they achieved local numerical advantage and surprise was the feint to the south which utterly fooled the Russian military and caused them to move troops south just as the eastern offensive started. Always remember when talking of this that Armchair was deriding the southern offensive as a disaster a day before its success became clear. Such were his 'sources' and their 'value'.

__________________________________________________________________

The Russians have held referenda in the conquered (for the moment) territories which (surprise..surprise) have heavily favoured joining Russia. There is an old Russia word which I heard a lot in the days I used to visit the old USSR - 'Vyrano'. I basically means an agreed upon lie. Its so prevalent in Russia that Dostoyevsky wrote an essay on it. It was described as "You know I’m lying. I know that you know. You know that I know that you know. But I go ahead with a straight face, and you nod seriously"

That's what the referenda are. Only those required or too indoctrinated (eg AC and/or Bronwyn) to know better, believe the referenda were legit. We all know it's a lie. Even Putin

Bronwyn,

Just a couple of points....

You write: "Gorbachev....was promised that NATO would not move eastward. That promise was never kept."

Its simply not true. And Gorbachev himself said so. At the time of German reunification, the promise was to not station arms or troops in the old GDR. Nothing more. And that promise was fulfilled until Putin threw it out the window by annexing Crimea.

"Gorbachev continued that “The agreement on a final settlement with Germany said that no new military structures would be created in the eastern part of the country; no additional troops would be deployed; no weapons of mass destruction would be placed there. It has been obeyed all these years.” (2010).

Putin claimed otherwise despite the facts. I'm not surprised you accepted his lie without demur.

You carry on as though the fighting that broke out in Donbass in 2014 was entirely the fault of the Ukrainian government. In fact the initial hostilities were the people of the Donbass seeking to overturn the election of 2014 through violence. When the Ukrainian authorities sought to reinstate order in their own country as is their right and duty, Putin then internationalised the conflict by arming the Donbass rebels (who were always only a subsection of that population). Many have died but that's not solely caused by the Ukrainian authorities. Its primarily caused by the Russian armed insurgency.

mhaze,

Thank you.

Well said.

Believing that Putin is a nice peace loving guy provoked into going to war by nations intent on Russia's destruction is like believing that Hitler built the gas ovens to bake bread to feed the starving masses of Europe.

Nazi Germany, fascist Italy and Imperial Japan sang a similar song of how the US and her allies were conspiring to destroy them. As with Russia, the root of the problem is a malignant dictatorship.

Putin needs to be the strong man to stay in power. Having the Russian army shown up as inferior is what will kill him, hence his constant threat of using nuclear weapons. I suspect that the Ukrainians will have a greater advantage over winter with their superior mobility and man portable weapons. Hopefully that will be the final nail in his coffin.

"I've heard that Ukraine outnumbered Russians by maybe 8 to 1 during the recent counter offensive."

I was speaking specifically in regards to the Kharkiv offensive where allied forces withdrew to the east of the Oskil River, everywhere except Izyum where 500 troops were ordered to hold off Ukrainians until reinforcements arrive.

"But it is also clear that elements of the Russia army ran at the first opportunity, leaving their equipment which is now incorporated into the Ukraine army."

- They were ordered to withdraw a few hours prior to the counter-offensive, they were spread thin and outnumbered by up to 8 to 1.

"But the main reason they achieved local numerical advantage and surprise was the feint to the south which utterly fooled the Russian military and caused them to move troops south just as the eastern offensive started."

I think they made a strategic decision to reinforce Kherson over Izyum. Izyum's purpose was to act as a staging point for moving south to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, but Russians failed to break through defensive lines there, which meant it's value as strategic territory was over-rated.
Troops in Izyum were spread thin and in the process of being replaced / rotated, it was definitely a debacle there.
In Kherson though, it wasn't a fake counter-offensive, Ukraine took heavy losses.
In both offensives they lost about 12000 troops in 3 days if I remember correctly.

"Always remember when talking of this that Armchair was deriding the southern offensive as a disaster a day before its success became clear."

What exactly did they succeed in, heavy losses - for no territory taken?
The morgues in Odessa were overflowing apparently.

Referendum.
Of course... why would a Russian speaker want to vote for Russia when Ukraine wants to outlaw their language has been killing the women and kids and elderly, bombing schools and hospitals and city centres for the last 8 years in Donetsk?

How ridiculous to believe they wouldn't support the people bombing them for 8 years.
- They've actually been waiting for the Russians to come to liberate them.

Hey Fester,

"Having the Russian army shown up as inferior is what will kill him, hence his constant threat of using nuclear weapons."

He didn't make any threats, if you think he did then show me where he did.

He simply stated the current Russian nuclear doctrine, (which remains unchanged).
Russian now considers Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk regions as Russian territory, and will defend them as such.

Hi AC

"a statement of an intention to inflict pain, injury, damage, or other hostile action on someone in retribution for something done or not done."

Clearly our definitions are at variance, but if Putin has made no threats then why would he say "I'm not bluffing."?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/im-not-bluffing-vladimir-putin-062940622.html?guccounter=1

As for the war going to plan, the consensus before the conflict was that Ukraine would fall in a few weeks. I believe that the Russian forces planned for a 15 day war. Lyman now retaken. How long before Kherson falls?

It always has been & always will be an abominable tactic to sacrifice others for one's own ideology !

"What exactly did they succeed in, heavy losses - for no territory taken?
The morgues in Odessa were overflowing apparently."

I'll have a go AC. Yes, Ukrainians took losses against very well equipped Russian forces in Kherson, but they achieved two advantages. Russia moved men and equipment, resulting in the loss of most of Kharkiv, and those men and their equipment are now stuck in Kherson, unable to be mobilised along a long front line. I am sure that Russia has other concentrations of modern equipment capable of holding off the Ukrainians, but I suspect that they might have the same problem as the Phorcides and are similarly vulnerable.

AC asked "What exactly did they succeed in, heavy losses - for no territory taken? The morgues in Odessa were overflowing apparently."

Surely you understand it by now. The Ukrainians spent a month or more talking up their assault on the southern front, reinforced by attacks on Crimea facilities. They advertised their intention to relieve Kherson and open a path to Crimea. It was all very up-front and convincing.

And, like you, the Russians fell for it hook, line and sinker. They pulled forces out of the Karkiv region to reinforce the forces where the Ukrainian attack was supposedly to come. Once the Ukrainians were convinced enough troops had been moved, they sprung their trap and attacked on the eastern front. It has been wildly successful with even Lyman about to fall. Yes, they achieved local superiority in numbers but only because the Russians, like you, took the bait.

They have made minimal ground around Kherson because that isn't their current aim. They continue to pressure Kherson so that the Russians can't relocate troops from there to the Donbass.

Which, of course, is why Putin is trying to find an extra coupla hundred thousand pieces of cannon fodder.

Claiming as you continue to do, that the Kherson offensive was a failure utterly misunderstands the strategic situation.

mhaze

There was indeed a promise that NATO would not move eastward. It wasn’t formalised in a treaty, but it was stated in 1990 meetings between Russia, the US and West European nations. There’s an archived collection in Washington of thirty crucial documents which prove beyond doubt that the promises were made by multiple western leaders to Gorbachev as the USSR was being dismantled. The west has already broken the promise four or five times and, if Zelensky gets his way and Ukraine joins NATO, is about to break it again. They will no doubt break it another time when, as is their clear intention, they bring Georgia into NATO.

The fighting in the Donbas was indeed the fault of the Ukrainian government. The 2010 democratically-elected Yanukovych government had tried to balance the expansion of ties with the EU and the maintenance of historical business relationships with Russia. In 2013 Yanukovych backed away from signing an EU association agreement and asked for more time when advised the agreement would blow a $160 billion hole in Ukraine’s economy. The US instigated a coup which saw Yanukovych driven from the country and the US-puppet Poroshenko installed as leader. His first legislative act was to abolish the official recognition of the Russian language which quite rightly angered the approximately 45% of Ukrainians who were Russian speakers. As a majority Russian-speaking area, the Donbas sought autonomy from Kiev and as such was subjected to a repressive government crackdown.

Russia did not arm the Donbas rebels. According to former intelligence officer and NATO advisor monitoring the situation at the time, Jacques Baud, 'there were no deliveries of weapons and military equipment from Russia’. The rebels were armed by Russian-speaking Ukrainian units who defected to the rebel side. From the time of the coup, the US was training and arming the Ukrainian military, among them far-right neo-nazi militia. Around 14 000 were killed in the Donbas in the eight years before Russia’s military intervention in February 2022. Mass graves were being uncovered and evidence of war crimes reported to Amnesty International in 2021.

Bronwyn,

The expansion of NATO was at the request of the nations bordering on Russia primarily due to Russia's aggression towards its neighbours. The ousting of Yanukovych followed his refusal to join the EU with the loss of $bns of potential trade etc. This was a popular revolt with 100 000s of protesters in the streets.

The takeover of Crimea and the occupation of the Donbas region were performed by Russian troops using Russian equipment, and unless you can show how the rebels suddenly obtained Russian tanks, artillery and anti-aircraft systems I call bollocks on it being a popular revolt.

Russia is now losing this war, and with the chaotic call-up of non-combatants Russia's economy is now in turmoil and a death spiral. And these new recruits are simply cannon fodder.

Putin is determined to take Ukraine and does not care how many Russians or civilians get killed.

Kharkiv has far less strategic value than Odessa, they will come back and take it later once reinforced from the partial mobilisation.
They tried to use it as a staging point to move south to Sloviansk and Kramatorsk but they couldn't break through Ukraines defensive lines there.
- With that in mind, troops were better off elsewhere, they gave up the territory, but it was a bit of a debacle.
- And likewise Izyum has less strategic value than Bakmut.
In Izyum, 500 men held off 6000, though I've heard they've now withdrawn.
Bakmut is the key to Donbass falling and Russian / allied forces are making progress there.

"It has been wildly successful"
Don't kid yourself, it was largely undefended.
Russians withdrew, they didn't contest it.

"They have made minimal ground around Kherson because that isn't their current aim."
- That's just what they said when the counter offensive failed.
They certainly lost a good chunk of their forces trying.

NATO - What Gorbachev Heard
http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
FYI, NATO had 3 waves of expansion, look it up. "Not one inch eastward"

The Russian call up for mobilization was botched, but I heard they actually called up 1.2 million reserves, not just 300,000.

Ukraine has run out of tanks it's using 70 year old T-55s from Slovakia which are ineffective and begging Germany for Leopards and the US for M1 Abrams and outnumbered in artillery and short on ammunition and no longer have much in the way of an air force.
The West's shipments of weapons has slowed and Ukraine has lost all it's best troops.
As well as this the Ukrainian economy is looking bad.
- And Russia is going to increase boots on the ground by 4 or 5 times.
What do you think is going to happen?

What difference Aussie troops in East Timor or Russian Troops in Donbass?
- Before you judge you should look at what we did.

What because we called ourselves 'Peacekeepers'?
In Ukraine at the Russians came to help THE OTHER RUSSIANS.

This right to self-determination seems to only be acceptable when it's in the Wests interests, when not, it's called illegal and denounced.

You all know that Russia is only following the Wests precedents of what they've done in Serbia / Kosovo and other places.
The west set the precedent itself for what Russia is doing.

The west occupied Afghanistan for 20 years, they also carved off a chunk of Syria and is still stealing from them to keep them poor and starving.

Rules based order? what are the rules?
"Do as I say, not as I do"

Bronwyn,

“There was indeed a promise that NATO would not move eastward. It wasn’t formalised in a treaty,”

In international affairs any ‘promise’ not included in a treaty isn’t worth the paper its not written on.
But even there, no such promise was made, despite your claims of some mysterious documents in some DC archive. (Perhaps they’re stored next to Indiana Jones’ Ark of the Covenant!). When Putin was bounced on the issue, he agreed that nothing was in writing but declared that the promises were nonetheless made. He suggested that the interviewer check with Gorbachev to find the truth of the promise. And as I previously pointed out, Gorbachev confirmed no promise was made. You’re just regurgitating Russian propaganda by claiming otherwise.

As to the Donbass rebels, they are clearly armed by elements within Russia. Remember that they shot down MH17 with the loss of 298 lives by a surface-to-air missile supplied by Russia and possibly manned by Russians. There is ample evidence that there are Russia ‘volunteers’ in the United Armed Forces of Novorossiya including admissions from within Russian authorities itself. Quite how you think they managed to fight for 8 years without outside help is unclear. But again, its just regurgitation of Russian propaganda.

It’s a well-established MO of imperialist nations to justify expansion. First create a small rebel force, arm it and provide it with support, complain when the opposing authorities try to control the rebel force and finally declare there is no choice but to annex the troubled zones to protect the rebels who created the problem in the first place. It was the justification Hitler used in both Austria and even more so in the Sudetenland. Nazis indeed.

The Soviets loved "liberating"
They did it so well in the past
Many countries were given their "freedom"
Which for decades was doomed to last

Then came the nineties, everything changed
The Soviet "freedom" was re-arranged
Countries took back what once was theirs
Gone was the yoke, and with it despair

Nations wanted to really be free
They removed the Soviet yoke from their history
But Putin's come back with a grand great plan
He wants the world to understand

That "Sovietization" no longer exists
It's "Russification," now, if you please
He wants to take back what he thinks was once theirs
He doesn't care if his lie isn't fair

There's useful idiots out in the West
Who'll jump on Putin's bandwagon and carry his crest
There's a name in Russian for folk like these
The word is DURAK - and it's not meant to please

There's many Duraks around the world
Willing to champion and to scold
Putting out their version of history
Determined to hide the past misery

The world needs to fight this travesty
to ensure that it doesn't continue to spread
The only way to do this effectively
From the python's body - remove its head!

The Russian people need to remove Putin!

Hi AC,

I don't share your high opinion of the Russian army. They have the upper hand with inaccurate artillery. They seem to have increased their attacks on power and water infrastructure, and have continued to target civilians.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3583930-death-toll-in-russias-missile-attack-on-civilian-convoy-in-zaporizhzhia-rises-to-31.html

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3583816-russian-attack-on-column-of-civilian-cars-near-kupiansk-24-people-killed-including-13-children.html

And the Russian army's treatment of pows is reminiscent of Nazi concentration camps:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/29/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-prisoners.html

Logistically, Ukraine's greatest military challenge remains the Russian artillery. If you look at Russia's losses, you might note that they are losing four times as many tanks and apcs as they are losing artillery pieces. The significance of this is that their ability to advance against is very limited, but they still have ample capacity to cause damage with inaccurate weapons. I would like to see the Ukrainian army try swarm attacks with their smaller drones, especially in areas where the Russian army has more sophisticated anti-drone technology. I believe that this approach would be devastating if they had artillery (especially Himars) to attack targets spotted by the drones.

Hey Fester,
From what I heard the attack on the civilian convoys was a false flag.
Ukraine did it, not Russia.
- Just like they attacked the Zaporizhia NPP and the Olenivka prison

I think the people had been queued for days maybe even protested their right to leave.
Ukraine probably (rightly) assumed they wanted to go back in time to vote and decided to target them instead as collaborators.
- Just say Russia did it...

"And the Russian army's treatment of pows is reminiscent of Nazi concentration camps"

Can't read it sorry, paywalled, but there's plenty of horrible things going on on both sides.
You'd be a fool to think there isn't.

- Yesterday I heard a story about a Ukranian soldier who was apparently stewing a Russian's head in a pot.

"Logistically, Ukraine's greatest military challenge remains the Russian artillery..."

Russian military doctrine is to soften them up with the rocket artillery first before sending troops in, it creates many dead and wounded on the Ukranian side.

I agree that drones would make a significant difference.
- But Russia too is also now using the Iranian drone which have been quite effective, as it their ability to shoot down the Ukrainian drones already.

You'll soon see the effects of increased Russia troop presence defending what is now considered Russian territory, but they're only a few weeks away before the rains come.

Hi AC,

You can get to the article by disabling javascript (right click into inspect(Q) then expand the options bar on top and choose settings). Doesn't work for all sites.

Sadly I think the conflict will only be resolved with force. It will be harder for the Ukrainians as they will soon be in territory brainwashed with Russian propaganda for the past eight years. How well the Russian army performs will depend on whether they can keep up the supply of tanks and apcs. They have been a bit thin on the ground which has allowed the Ukrainians to get behind their front lines and cause problems. Also, because of the command structure, the Russian army is at a significant disadvantage when it retreats as it has to reestablish its eyes and ears before they can become an effective force. The Ukrainians are aware of this and are always scouting to find the command posts. I also get the impression that the Russian retreats have been hasty by the amount of abandoned equipment.

While neither side will like the rain and cold, I suspect that it might be of more benefit to the Ukrainians. Those cold and hungry Russians in Kherson might be losing their will to fight on.

AC,

There were nearly 5000 Russians in the strategic city of Lyman, many of them killed or captured as they fled.

It now looks like the Russian lines in Kherson are starting to collapse.

The Russians were identified as the killers of the civilian convoy and are the prime suspects in the bombing of the Nord stream pipe lines.

They've been saying for years that there are red lines, and the West kept ignoring and dismissing them (Armchar Critic). Right.
George F. Kennan said when NATO admitted Poland as a member, "It is the biggest mistake that the West has made since the collapse of the Soviet Union."

Democracy is a plitical institution that can be established and function in a country that has, in its past, such culture. It is an insititution far more than tangible things put together like a piece of paper which says, "All men are born equal and can vote for selecting their leaders when they come of age," voting booths where you have a pencil and a piece of paper to write in the names of your favorite idiots, a big builing called the parliament where those idiots assemble, and the President or the Prime Minister's office.

Colours are irrelevant. An Egyptian said to a Japanese TV, "We had food, jobs, shelters and clothes even with Mubarak, We have none of them." The West cannot expect gratitude from Afghans, Iraqis, Libyans, and Syrians. In Myanmar the West gave support to Mrs. Su Kyi, thereby sending the National Army to the other end of Myanmars politics, making the people suffer far more than necessary. The West should have urged compromises.
Democratization in the country is, now, something unrealisable there even with Su Kyi aided by such dedicated people like George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln.

(Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and militarist Japan sang a similar song.
Japan did not sing the song with them.)
This is a big myth about Japan, still kept by the West because it saves it knowing the hard reality.
"one may conclude not why democracy failed there (in Japan), but how...totalitarian dictatorship did not evove there (Ben-Amy Shillony)."
To be continued.

Continued from above.
"The attempt to transfer the traditional admiration for the Britain and the US to Nazi Germany did not succeed、because respect for the West could not be obliterated...Western culture, although denigrated and vilified, continued to exert a fascination, and these pro-Western feelings, which could not be erased, were soon to surface from the ashes of defeat (Shillony, Politics and Culture in Wartime Japan)."
William Webb, an Australian, was the Chief Justice at the Far Eastern Military Tribunal. After giving sentences he said back in Australia that the Tokyo Tribunal was a sham. General MacArthur was fired by Truman in April, 1951. In May he testified at the Joint Session of the US Foreign Relations and the Military Committe.

For a little bit more of this, I would like interested people to read my thirty-one comments on John Lee, Australia can't afford to bite its tongue on China,
Japan and Great Britain entered into an alliance in 1902. At the Washington Conference (1921-22) America insisted on its termination so the two countries agreed to end it in 1923 though the they were rather willing to have it. After the World War II Chuchill said it was an error of British foreign policy not to have extended it.
Japan and the US have been allied since 1952 to date. Japan's military ties are not anything that should surprise us as might be intimated in Murray Hunter, Australia and Japan confirmed their natural defence trajectory. Tokyo has had an alliance either with Britain or America for ninety-three years out of the past one hundred twenty-one years.

Michi,

Nazi Germany, fascist Italy and Imperial Japan were ended militarily. There was some retribution, but it was constrained because changing their political systems was far more important. Following the enforced changes, those nations are now peaceful and prosperous. Russia remains a destitute mess presided over by Nazi gangsters.

<George F. Kennan said when NATO admitted Poland as a member, "It is the biggest mistake that the West has made since the collapse of the Soviet Union.">

George had lots of other great ideas like these:

"he argued that the United States should become an authoritarian, if not fascist, state and that women, immigrants and African-Americans should be stripped of the right to vote, as he felt only American-born white males had the necessary intelligence to vote."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_F._Kennan

I guess the good die young. Why shouldn't Poland or any other nation have the right to defend themselves as they choose? Nations like Poland have experienced rule by Russian gangsters and have no desire to see it return. Than goodness Ukraine has been given support against an unprovoked invasion.

I have a suspicion that the corrupt Russian military have not been maintaining their war machine so well and are starting to run out of things like tanks that work. They could lose 100,000 troops by year end.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l2FgTr4fUw

General MacArthure said in the joint session on May 3, 1952, "Their (Japanese) purpose, therefore, in going to war (with the United States) was largely dictated by security."

Fester,
Samuel Huntigton says, in Who Are We?: America's Great Debate, a lot about the importance of a political community (a nation) having one basic culture. He wants America to have and keep a protestant identity and says he means identity not in terms of colour of skin but in terms of culture. A few years ago a former Japanese minister of defence went to the US and talked with Hispanics. He found the Hispanic people little interested in foreign relations.

The issue today is that Russia is being beaten like a drum.

The 300 000 that are being drafted are getting zero training mostly because all the training battalions and their equipment were sent to the front. These conscripts have to supply their own equipment and armour and many of the tanks being sent in are from the 1960s.

The Russian army is on the bones of its arse and getting worse.

Despite the Russian apologists desperately seeking a silver lining in the military situation in the south, it now appears that Ukraine is indeed starting to make inroads in that sector as well.

They have made "rapid gains along the right bank of the Dnipro River. Smaller gains further west in Kherson threaten to trap a reported 2,000-4,500 Russian troops" although as with Lyman those Russians have the option of leaving their equipment and retreating with alacrity.

It got so bad that some of these troops took to social media to plead for help.

Things are going from bad to worse for the Russians. Putin's nuclear trigger finger must be twitching.

Yes, we are talking about Russia and Ukraine.

I (Y.M) sent two comments on Project Syndicate, Joseph Nye, Is Nuclear War Inevitable?, Sep.5.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/is-nuclear-war-inevitable-by-joseph-s-nye-2022-09

I said:
The nuclear deterrence theories are not made up of mathematics and logics. If so, we could be optimistic since mathematics and logics are truly universally applicable unless some leaders opted for mutual annihilation instead of for co-existence.
The theories are made up of empirical, not logical, propositions, that is, they do not have universal applicability such as mathematics and logics have. And the theories that we have are products born out of the West's experiences with Russia.
I do not know if the West could have come up with anything of mutual deterrence and stability like that with China. And if we could have, the theories would have been very different ones, for China has had quite a different world-view. (Margaret Thatcher and French President Chirac said openly that it was much easier to deal with Russia than with one Germany.)

If we wish to avoid a nuclear war with Russia, what is implied in this is that we must learn to accept living partly contented and partly discontented with Russia.

We are forfeiting co-operation from Russia for problems like climate change, nucear non-proliferarion, and etc.

Suppose the world is made up of three groups, the West, China and Russia with some followers, and the so-called developing countries. China is learning, thanks to the West's economic sanctions on Putin, to buy and sell with the Renminbi and with the rouble. Since the West cannot extend sanctions on the third group, the third group engages in trade with both the West and China/Russia; here the renminbi and the rouble can be converted into or from the dollar and the euro.
Some experts say we may be possibly witnessing the decline of the dollar and the euro and a relative rise of the renminbi.

We are talking about Russia and Ukraine, so we can also talk about Libya and Syria, etc.

US foreign policy toward Russia and that toward Syria, etc. are one and the same thing. It stems from the American historical but unfounded conviction of F. Fukuyama's "The End of History." History is not going to end in liberalism's victory. There is nothing in the world to suggest it as there was nothing to suggest that history would end with workers all over the world united.

The US leaders were sure in the wake of the Soviet Union's collapse that the world would end in liberalism but the truth was that nations which did not identify with the West or the East (the Soviets) but idenitfied with themselves had been slowly on the rise.

Hi Michi,

It is a tragedy involving people. When Reagan and Thatcher met with Gorbachev their argument was that western democracies had more to offer people. As far as I know they didn't discriminate about the what sort of people would benefit, and I don't remember Gorbachev saying "No thanks. Slavic people are ethnically bred for cleptocratic autocracies, so it's gangsta rules for us!".

The interest for me is how the conflict will end. Russia has an inferior command structure and weapons, but lots of troops, weapons and ammunition. The question for me is "How many deployable BTGs does Russia have?". If they don't have enough tanks to protect the front line they have a problem, and I suspect that the rain and cold will only make the problem worse for them.

And whilst little Vlad celebrates his seventieth birthday in style, his invincible soldiers in Ukraine, when they are not getting drunk, murdering, looting, raping, torturing and destroying (have I missed anything?), are bravely fighting Nazis:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7brzL5K0BOw