Fester,

Who is contending that Russia was provoked? It is sad that people on both sides are dying whatever the cause of the war. That is true for any war whatever the cause. A Ukrainian mother and a Russian mother both grieve.

Hi Fester,

It's hard to get accurate numbers on dead and wounded
- depends which side is giving the numbers.

There's a few reasons behind why Russia hasn't performed as well as expected, and if you take these into account, well they may not have performed as badly as what people are lead to believe.

Russia has been constrained somewhat by the terms of the special military operation, and there's probably not as many Russian troops on the ground as one thinks. As per the 'special military operation' it's mainly Russians providing artillery, tanks and air support to the militias of the Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples Republics.
As well as that there's Wagner Group, Chechens, Cossacks and Russian regulars.

Russians by and large have listened to and believed Putin's speeches about the west being as existential threat to Russia and have seen the way Europe has acted towards them. They see the war games in the Far East and asked why more troops haven't been sent to protect the Russian speaking people in Ukraine.

Recently during Ukraines counter-offensive, Russian troops were actually down to quite a small number, maybe as few as 50,000 - many had finished their deployments and were in the process of being replaced, I've heard that Ukraine outnumbered Russians by maybe 8 to 1 during the recent counter offensive.

Despite this, Ukraine has been taking heavy losses and may not be able to muster up enough troops for further counter-offensives.
Russia on the other hand has now moved to balance this shortfall in troop numbers, some units in the recent mobilisation are already in Ukraine.

As well as this, the 'special military operation' becomes obsolete when the 4 regions formally become a part of Russia, Ukraine will face a greater strength and determination from within the Russian military going forward.

[Cont.]

Another reason for the slow progress is that you have military units embedded in civilian areas, because of this, it takes time to move through these areas.

"I don't buy the idea of Russia being provoked into invading Ukraine"

I think the writing was on the wall enough for Russia to make a stand.
They've been saying for years that there are red lines, and the west kept ignoring and dismissing them, even though it would be going nuts if the same red lines were crossed in regards to their own national security interests.

They were killing Russian speaking citizens in Ukraine for 8+ years.
Western weapons still fall on civilians in Donetsk City on a daily basis even now.

They were arming Ukraine to the kilt, planning on joining NATO and the EU (They may as well already be a member) planning to put nukes on Russia's borders and making economic war against them, something had to give sooner or later.

If the US wasn't provoking Russia into war, then I don't know what else you would call these actions.

- And that's before we look at how the US itself overthrew the country in 2014, that got this mess started.

- This pipeline attack seems to raise the stakes though.
I feel like the blame game here is going to go on for decades.

Hi David

"Who is contending that Russia was provoked?"

Putin. Yes, it is a tragedy for all, but all the crime, death and destruction is the result of conscious decisions. Should the people making the decisions to kill, maim, kidnap and destroy be held to account, or should the disaster be treated like an earthquake or storm?

Thanks AC. I always appreciate your knowledge and detailed responses. Russia has deployed about a quarter of a million troops. My understanding is that Russian troop deployments to prevent a counteroffensive in the south left Kharkiv vulnerable, but I agree with your contention of the troop shortage for the rapid loss of territory.

I still think of Russians as being largely misled by the controlled media. I suspect that the freedoms enjoyed by citizens of Italy, Japan and Germany are greater than the freedoms enjoyed in Russia, and believe that the Russian authorities determine the freedoms of Russian citizens, not foreign entities. The mobilisation in Russia would suggest that there aren't many volunteers from the occupied areas. Annexation would seem to be a means of allowing conscription in occupied Ukraine, yet another war crime. Ukraine has been able to stop the Russian advance and now have effective means of defence, especially Himars. I think they are waiting for colder weather when the Russian army may lose mobiliity, making them vulnerable to man portable munitions that saw them ousted from the north.

Russia is a nation of educated people and rich in natural resources. It should be very wealthy and a great contributor to the world, more so than the likes of Germany or Japan. Such a waste. So sad.

Cheers

Fester,

The fact is that most of the soldiers fighting on different sides in any war feel they have no alternative. They kill, and they die.

Any war is the result of conscious decisions, but the soldiers fighting the war didn't make those decisions.

There are heroic figures like Franz Jaegerstatter who refused to fight for the Nazis and was beheaded, but most soldiers go along and hope to survive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franz_J%C3%A4gerst%C3%A4tter

Scum like Robert E. Lee who led the fight for slavery in the US are even honored by the victors after the war.

The soldiers in the ranks dying on both sides in Ukraine are all human, and I feel sorrow for all of them.

Hi David,

I think it pointless slaughter and tragic. Like you, I am disgusted at the popularity of Putin and his henchmen organising the slaughter. To me they are the Robert E Lees and Stonewall Jacksons of the conflict, only more depraved.

Cheers