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The Forum > Article Comments > We are killing more people because of lockdown than we are saving > Comments

We are killing more people because of lockdown than we are saving : Comments

By Graham Young, published 13/7/2020

We’ve taken a radical, unconventional approach as a country. It’s past time to see what worked, what could have worked better, and then communicate to the people.

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More Bah Humbug and spurious supposition.

Again I submit, this virus has not been shown to be able to survive in the environment, and in fact the contrary is strongly indicated - that it requires a 'living host' to survive and multiply.

But, problem solved. Dedicate appropriate sections of all public and private hospitals to care for all aged-care and other susceptible people in Oz as 'potential' Covid patients, and transfer all those people to those hospital beds, whether 'positive' or not.

Then, the rest of the devil-may-care populace can exercise the Covid protocols - in full, masks and all - or not, as they see fit, but, with a clear understanding that the macho warriors choosing to break protocols and laugh at the potential consequences will only be able to have a hospital bed if they are indeed 'at death's door'. Short of this, they can stay in self-isolation and see how they go, or can go out and spread the 'joy'.

Break out the Champagne, run rampant, and wear the consequences.
'Herd Immunity', natural selection, or eradication by 'excluding' available 'hosts'? Individual choice (though I believe the 'correct' choice should be mandated), but be clearly aware of potential loss of susceptible 'kin', friends, and any unwary passers-by.

No more need for supervised 'hotel isolation' (except for returning overseas Aussies), or for general 'testing' (outside of hospital), an immediate end to job-keeper and reduction to job-seeker to, say, $750/wk, police back to 'normal' duties, military personnel back to barracks, no more closed borders (except international ones for all non-Aussies), and with consequent re-opening of the economy and big savings to government budgets.

Alternatively - How about 'dob in' a 'drongo'? Or - straight to incarceration for flagrant 'yobs'? Let's have a 'vote'!

Bouquets to all survivors. Noting: all health service, transport and essential services to wear full protective gear supplied by 'the state' when on duty. (However, what happens when they get home?)
(TBC)
Posted by Saltpetre, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 3:17:25 PM
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Cont'd:

And, what's with the 'musical chairs' in aged-care homes, with casual staff skipping from one home to another? Can't each of these staff be given equivalent working hours at one location, and save all the commuting - and avoid all the added potential for spreading the 'menace'?
(Or, could some of these casuals indeed be 'working the system' to avoid any impact on coincidental 'welfare' entitlements? Puzzling.)

Say, if our hospitals can be permanently expanded to care for all needing aged or disability-care, then the aged-care staff will be available for other work, and may even take up a career in nursing?
Posted by Saltpetre, Wednesday, 15 July 2020 3:17:36 PM
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COVID-19 TO OVERWHELM ICU BED NUMBER LIMITS - UNLESS...

1. Without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller quarantine and social distancing COVID-19 cases will by-far-overwhelm the number of Australian Intensive Care Unit (ICU) beds used for all types of diseases and accidents of people of ALL AGES.

ICU wards are always heavily used/catered for - for all causes from women birth complications, infant illnesses, heart cases of 50y/old men, post cancer surgery, to increased normal flu cases (right now) in Winter.

Unlike severe flu viruses and other covids COVID-19 doesn't make most spreaders really ill. Without isolation-quarantine measures COVID-19 spreads quickly in a comparatively undetectable way.
__________________________________________

2. Source "Surge capacity of Australian intensive care units associated with COVID-19 admissions" published 30 March 2020 at http://www.mja.com.au/journal/2020/surge-capacity-australian-intensive-care-units-associated-covid-19-admissions

This is the simple but deadly numbers game:

- There are 191 ICUs in Australia with available ICU beds = 2,378

Maximal estimate surge of ICU beds (an 191% increase) = 4,258

This surge would require:

- a 325% increase in senior doctors = 4092

and

- a 365% increase in ICU nurses = 42,720
________________________________________________

3. Source "IMPACT OF COVID-19: Theoretical modelling of how the health system can respond" at http://www.health.gov.au/sites/default/files/documents/2020/04/impact-of-covid-19-in-australia-ensuring-the-health-system-can-respond-summary-report.pdf

(i) modelling of an uncontrolled COVID-19 outbreak requires ICU beds = 35,000

(which would greatly exceed Australia’s expanded capacity of <7,000 ICU beds.)

(ii) With cases isolation and quarantine, demand is reduced to ICU beds = 17,000

(still well above expanded ICU bed capacity).

(iii) With isolation, quarantine and social distancing daily
demand is less than 5,000.
______________________________________

CONCLUSION

So without COVID-19 cases isolation, traveller quarantine and social distancing COVID-19

cases will by-far-OVERWHELM the number of Australian ICU beds used for all types of diseases

and accidents of people of ALL AGES.

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Thursday, 16 July 2020 6:58:21 PM
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Hi Graham,

If we assume that Trumpf has average intelligence, and that he has been constantly advised one way or the other about how to handle this Covid-19 catastrophe, then he has been in the position to take the wisest course - or to choose to go all-out for re-election, and to hell with the consequences.

IF he had taken a similar course to Morrison's here, then instead of around 140,000 deaths so far, he may have kept the toll down to as low as three or four thousand (given that the population of the US is about fifteen times ours).

Clearly, Trumpf has chosen the election-oriented path, and - so far - has thus sacrificed more than 135,000 people in his scramble for re-election. So far.

So far, 135,000 Americans have died on his re-election altar. This raises the question: if he knew this could happen - or recklessly didn't really give a stuff - then has he committed, or been a party to, manslaughter on a massive scale ?

If so, once he is no longer president, can he be charged with those multiple offences ? Or does he have some sort of immunity ? That presidents are allowed to risk the lives of hundreds of thousands of people in the Great Cause of re-election ?

On the other hand, I did hypothesise that Trumpf had more or less normal intelligence. That may be his 'get out of jail' card.

Question: will Runner urge him to play it ?

Joe
Posted by loudmouth2, Saturday, 18 July 2020 11:03:16 AM
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and your alternative President Joe? Your namesake?
Posted by runner, Saturday, 18 July 2020 1:23:06 PM
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Well said Joe.

Just shows where faux "Christian" runner's politics really lie.
Posted by plantagenet, Saturday, 18 July 2020 2:58:55 PM
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