This article is at least honest, in that it unashamedly presents the neo-liberal argument, that the elderly and the vulnerable are expendable, and the rest of us are not.
So, let's make a choice. Die now, if you're old or vulnerable, so that the rest of us can get on with our everyday lives.
Sort of like 'taking one for the team'.
They say Bergamo in Italy has lost most of its older generation in the last two months. That is not a solution I am prepared to live with.

On the one hand they they moan about the cost of old people, on the other they spend billions on keeping us alive. The China virus, like the flu followed by pneumonia, are ideal for culling these nuisances. I'm in my 77th year. I ache all over 24/7. I'm grumpy. Apart from a little bit of gardening, reading and doing crosswords,and watching Netflix, I have little interest in life. I don't necessarily want to catch the virus, but I know that I'm going to pop my clogs from something sooner rather than later. And I don't expect young people with decades ahead of them to be out of work, losing their homes and so on because of something I am much more likely to get than they are.

assbucko: Well said, Sir!

Albeit a few folks who wouldn't look too out of place in jackboots/brown shirts would quite likely agree with Graham or Donald Trump and just let er rip and that's ok, given the victims will be old/useless, etc.

Young survivors will tell you the symptoms, even if "mild", are #@&* horrible, may take months before your compromised lungs are back to 80%? By which time the virus may have mutated to a more virulent/deadly strain? And reinfect again?

While we may be able to restart many enterprises, they will be manufacturing where the entire staff work inside a covid free bubble!

Pubs will need to be able to trade as drive-through bottle shops. Other retailers will need to up their home delivery services, retain social distancing inside their premises! Until we have an effective and safe vaccine!. And 80% vaccinated. We may need annual
shots for some years, until the virus is eliminated?

Church services/entertainment can pivot to drive-ins? Many jobs will be created achieving that!

Sporting comps will also need to be played inside covid free bubbles. Which could be seen as buses/caravans in convoy to provide quarantined covid free transport/accommodation, for the duration?

Cricket comps will be easier, given that game can be played contact-free/at a reasonable social distance?

I don't see clubs opening any time soon given the crowds that jam in.

Trains/trams will be able to provide a low passenger capacity service given just how much work can be conducted from home by traditional service industries?

Essential in a service-based economy, which will be more negatively impacted by a global downturn of a magnitude not experienced since the great depression?

Means we need to become a self-reliant independent economy that makes stuff again and exports to niche markets around the world! And that recovery an outcome will need to be based on cooperative capitalism!

And resisted to the last man by hard-right ideologues and their robber baron masters/operators?

Take care and stay safe.
Alan B.

Fascinating the references here to blackshirts and jackboots! The fact is this whole sorry nonsense is just about that. The government people see a chance to be the Kapo in the camp bossing the rest of us around, oh and giving themselves much better pay and conditions too.
This fiasco was never needed, if people worry let them do something for themselves as we do not need ABC idiots setting any sort of course for our country.
Economy wrecked and mass unemployment, Trump has halted immigration what will our government do?
I say this as a migrant in his seventy third year.

There're apparently already 31 strains of covid-19, 19 of which are new mutations? The strain affecting Europe is far more virulent than the one infecting the USA?

All too easy for some folks to believe they are safe, only the old/useless are on this virus's shopping list?

The 19 new mutations may have a younger stronger shopping list? Means, we need to keep our borders closed, all new carriers, human/animal need to go through compulsory quarantine for up to a month, to ensure none of these new mutations get a foothold here!

Moreover, those deciding how we react, need to be guided by the medical experts rather than (sorry Graham) calloused, indifferent, political enthusiasts.

Who would be better served, using their prodigious skills/knowhow, to get us back to self-reliant independence as a nuclear-powered, manufacturing-based, self-reliant, independent economy where everything that leaves these shores, leaves, as value-added exports!

We could start vehicle manufacture as ocally owned, employee co-ops, and designing/building a small range of all-electric, right-hand drive vehicles for niche markets, export/domestic.

Marketed direct, to eliminate the profit demanding, paper shuffling middleman! Service contracts awarded after a thorough, competitive tendering process here!

All manufacture to be completed on a single site, by a single company to eliminate all the cascading tax imposts that made our vehicles as uncompetitive as they were!

And compounded toward the end, by (greed is good) energy prices higher than the wages bill that killed it more than lack of subsidies/withdrawn tariffs!

Employee co-ops, all their product line manufactured by a single entity, from a single site, marketed via an NBN supported, direct marketing strategy. And powered by unconventional, thorium/nuclear waste burning SMR MSR"s With it the cheapest powered and hugely automated economy in the world! Given ALL the above, able to take on/beat any emerging economy!

In so doing, create a carbon-free, economic template, the rest of the world has to follow, if only to survive economically!

Take care and stay safe.
Alan B.

I believe immigration has stopped.

I have to say I'm sick of hearing about the bloody Chinese virus. Most of the nightly news is made up of breathless reports of new cases, no new cases, as many 'alternative' views as can be dug up from ratbags looking for five minutes of fame. There's a feeling of depression and hopelessness, right down from the prime minister to the weather girl. Are they doctoring us up for a permanent change to our political system and economy, or are they just miserable bastards who have had the old Australian spirit driven out of them by multiculturalism, mass immigration and globalism.

TTBN I’m the same age as you and likewise have health issues 24/7 but where we differ is that I, like many other grandmothers in Australia have the full time care of grandchildren. 3 of them. So, my death would cause unnecessary trauma to quite a few people. And there are thousands of grandmothers doing the same job as me.
And whilst the virus is apparently not as fatal in young people, it does cause lung damage in serious cases, also kidney failure, so we need to keep these things in mind.
The other issue is the closure of schools. I can’t understand how anyone can advocate for kids to return to school whilst keeping social isolation rules in place. Kids may not get very sick from this disease but they make wonderful little carriers and there is absolutely no point in trying to reduce the rate of infection in adults whilst our children are gaily spreading the disease throughout all sections of the community.
I agree we should slowly relax some rules and try for a low rate of infection amongst the population but it will get out of control if kids go back to school.

Bravo Big Nana, Bravo and well said.

I too am a grandmother with health issues 24/7 and
I fully agree with the points you've raised.
I also took car of four grand-children. Although
I miss them greatly, I am relieved that I'm not seeing
them currently.

Also it's not just old people that will be affected by
this virus. It does not distinguish between people.
There are those in our communities who do suffer
respiratory problems, whose immune systems are not what
they should be and who would not survive if they got
attacked by this virus.

I am pleased that our government is listening to the
medical experts and following their advice. I am glad
and lucky to be living in this country.

Alan B, sorry "Maybe" is just a nonsense! It enables people to say any made up facts they like. Right up there with "If it saves one life". Think Alan, this virus is just a strand of dna in a protein envelope. No brain, no heart, no eyes, no ears and no blood. It just wants to keep on and it is not in its interest to kill it's host. More people were killed by flu and we have now watching our so called leaders losing their collective minds to a boogeyman. We live and we die as does all the other life forms. This lock down is destroying our jobs and our freedom!
Not the first time that some crazy notion has been able to slew all intelligence and common sense from our leaders and to our detriment. The uncalled in the MSM revolts in the US and Europe are not only not reported but the information is being suppressed. I am surprised a rational person like you has been well and truly had!

Those pretending to be concerned about our young folk/their future, need to take a good, long hard look at themselves their actions/evocations/motives!

if they're genuinely concerned!? Stop promoting all fossil-fueled energy options/withdraw the self-imposed prohibition on nuclear energy! Sign us up as a repository for the world's stockpile of nuclear waste/get busy with R+D on thorium SMR, MSR! As factory-built modules, we could export to the world or even small island nations currently powered by diesel or liquified NG!

Our own mas produced, factory-built, thorium reactors will produce copious quantities of, miracle cancer cure, alpha particle, bismuth 213.

Allow several dozen day clinics to be set up in remote outback locations, for the massive, medical tourist rade that would follow!

Thereby ensuring our domestic airlines, motel and hotel operations had a steady stream of money spending tourists coming to these shores as invited patients!

Who'd be automatically quarantined insitu, at their own expense/taken by ambulance to and from the treating day clinics in our economically decimated outback!

Or we could go back to the business as usual where the robber barons control everything/everyone/the pace of their preferred, self-serving, same old, same old, fossil-fueled economy!?

Along with their business as usual price gouging, tax evasion/avoidance, asset stipping/profit repatriation! If the cap fits?

Recovery?

Business as usual, same old won't achieve it or prevent a far worse and impending catastrophe than the black death or its potential modern equivalent, covid-19! Manifesting as a new/far deadlier strain?

Or worse, runaway unstoppable, catastrophic climate change!

You decide, I've argued for all the above, save covid-19, until I'm black in the face. Put us back to work! Done with all the excuses/blame-shifting!

Don't just do something, stand there wringing the hands?

Yes, it'll cost! But if done as outlined, make every dollar invested, do the work of seven or more/return around 2.5 for every dollar invested? N.B. The longer you prevaricate, the costly it gets!

Step up to the plate/challenge! And Lead us outta here! You've the recipe!

Take care and stay safe.
Alan B.

Yep...I read this article; and the comment.

They all pretty much sum-up the situation. There are many ways to skin a cat!

Who knows? But one thing is for sure, WHO doesn't.

Time will tell.

Dan

I’d be interested to know how many people have died since we went into lockdown from things like car accidents, cancer, heart disease and say choking on chocolate cake?

I am 53 and have health issues that well and truly put me in the highest vulnerable category however, the reaction to Covid19 by governments is ridiculous. We have lost our economy, freedoms, and any sense of rational thought.

There is clinical peer reviewed evidence this virus can be effectively treated a number of ways, cheap, readily available malaria medication, readily available HIV antivirals, intravenous ozone therapy and the use of CPAP oxygen treatment. There is also clear clinical evidence many patients are being killed by the use of ventilators as they are only effective in pneumonia like cases, of which Covid19 is not.

We (as in the government and the current crop of unqualified health advisers) are not listening to the experts in the field of Coronavirus nor the doctors at the coal face calling for other treatments that have been clinically shown they can treat this virus.

249 mutations reported from just 9 human Coronavirus samples, therefore a vaccine is a long, long way off. Get back to work ASAP or there will be nothing left to go back to soon.

I will take care of my own isolation and worry about re entering society when I choose to do so.

Risk and reward or no risk and disaster, it’s not a hard choice really!
Galen

Anyone else a little discomforted by the fact that with Anzac Day fast approaching, and the tales of mateship and not leaving anyone behind will again be regaled, that ethos is being shown the door with sentiments those contained with this article and from others in the media.

We can either come out of this having done our best to secure as many Australia lives as possible through joining together or we can start acting as though the economy rules supreme.

How many sick and dying Australian POWs were left without a share of food in the camps because the 'economy of survival' dictated it would be a waste?

Josh Frydenberg rightly talked about doing things the Australian way in our response to this virus, perhaps ANZAC day will be a chance to reaffirm that commitment.

Big Nana,

You have previously mentioned your responsibilities, which no person your age should have; but things happen, and I admire you for doing it. I hope your grandchildren appreciate you. You are essential to them. I, on the other hand, am an old rogue male who couldn't and wouldn't, take on such responsibilities. I prefer to be away from the herd these days. I have a good relationship with my grandchildren and great grandchildren but, I'm pretty sure, that's mainly because I don't see them very often; I certainly couldn't live with them. My wife would miss me but, really, I'm not any use, and neither are many old men like me. And am really pissed off by people who think of me as an old fart not worth listening to one moment, then gratuitously telling me how important I am the next to make themselves look 'nice'. I don't want be hanging around any more than today's society wants me around.

Dear Steele,

I watched an elderly veteran being interviewed on
one of the news channels the other evening. He spoke
about the ANZAC tradition of mateship, and caring
for each other, and his amazement at people now fighting
over toilet paper. Listening to the old man - made you
realise where our direction should lie and what should
unite us all.

Well hedged, emotive tosh, Steelie:

"We can either come out of this having done our best to secure as many Australia lives as possible...."

Ah yes, the Stirling Moss, Peter Landy path to the same finish line as every contesting strategy. Next you'll be invoking Simpson and his donkey.

Have a look at Singapore to see how successful the elimination stategy is. It leads to wave after wave, some larger some smaller, of regional, state and national lockdown and economic coma, while the vulnerable are locked away for years and you grow old enough to be amongst them.

Morrison govt has and is doing a great job.

Thanks Sco Mo. And thanks for not listening to the Sky News crowd.

Here is a tip for preventing corona virus infection.

Eat raw onions.

Stand over the fumes of a cut onion. This will coat the mucus membranes with sufanic acid, in which a virus will not survive.

Normally I'd charge .20c for that advice. But today it's on special for free.

Dan.

I've been working in a bubble for the past 3 weeks and I'm not stepping outside of my comfy little bubble until there is not one Wuhan virus related death in a 6 week period in Australia.

However, I think it is a good idea to send out some test subjects at the start of normalisation to see if it is getting safer. Top of my list are Alan Jones, Tony Abbott and Barnaby Joyce. They're expendable. No one in their right mind is going to miss any of them.

amazing how so many are concerned about life. About 80000 unborn children each year in Australia are murdered. Pity not the same concern. Suddenly life matters. Hooray!

Nearly 1800 people have died in Sweden, making it the 14th worst affected country globally. The death rate is 156.45 per million compared to 62.84 in Denmark, 28.41 in Norway and 17.69 in Finland, all of which have much more severe lockdowns. Its death toll is roughly three times the combined total of its Scandinavian neighbours.
This is updated today. It shows what a delayed response has done, and it warns us of the catastrophic risks we face if we re-open too soon.

most figures being passed around are garbage as not everyone has been tested. Just look at the hopelessly flawed rubbish Norman Swan produced a couple of weeks ago. As soon as appeasement money runs out I doubt whether the average Aussie will any longer want to live under a Police State. Some Premiers are simply enjoying the power rush and are now cracking. The school unions are determining if kids can go to school or not. With no real plan the Government is muddling as Graham suggest. Time to allow adults to make their own choices. I would rather take the small risk of dying receiving a hug from my grandkids than rotting away locked up.

Well said, Steele :)

If restrictions are lifted too quickly, what effect might this have on the capacity of the health system to manage a deteriorating situation ? How quickly would hospitals reach their capacity ? How soon would they be overwhelmed, as they seem to be in the US ?

How long can highly-skilled professionals be expected to work 12-hour shifts, 7 days a week, before they themselves become infected (and the system is compromised) or before many understandably pack it all in (and the system is compromised) ? Can a health system wind down and eventually collapse ?

Certainly, in Australian regions with no cases, restrictions could be lifted, provided checks could be put on their borders, to prevent entry to carriers. Certainly, PPE reserves should be built up massively, not necessarily just for any possible return of the virus, but to be of some use to neighbouring countries: many Pacific islands may not have even one ventilator.

But let's not kid ourselves - all age-groups can be affected. And it may not be all that necessary to have that hair-styling or massage, or game of golf.

Give it a few more weeks.

Joe

askbucko, Sweden's strategy involves fewer deaths per million than the path Australia appears to have adopted, for reasons I have already discussed on OLO. It's death-rate at this point is a conscious outcome of its strategy.

Why do you, and the other fantasists here, think so many more hospital beds, ventilators, PPE, staffing etc. are being prepared if there is such faith in the elimination strategy?

As per runner's comment on teachers' union activists calling the tune, one of them was at it last night in SA, contradicting the premier who, to my surprise, has been doing a top job, without any knee jerking and emotionalism and BS - unlike Scottybotty. SA is doing very well, certainly not in need of advise from commo teachers' unions. The Liberals, asleep for all the years Labor was stuffing the state every which way, now look more likely to be re-elected than the Fed Libs do after Morrison's socialising and trashing of freedoms.

I lose respect for medical officers and governments claiming kids don't spread germs simply because they generally don't die from the same germs. Clearly, the economic imperative drives the assertion of such twaddle that every man and his dog knows to be a lie.

I think schools should stay open but can see why teachers might want a bit of PPE and consideration through special arrangements if they are in vulnerability groups.

If one teacher dies after catching covid-19 at school it will be all over the media for weeks, with the family saying how unfair it is and the opposition saying this is the greatest tragedy since the Titanic.
If suicides among young unemployed males increase by 2 a month for the period of the lockdown and then the recovery; and domestic violence increases by 20% during the lockdown, it will be ignored by the media and the opposition will say "Ah well, just one of those things that happens."
Governments are supposed to look at the big picture not just follow what the 5:00 news says is news, but if they don't follow the news they lose the next election.
Articles like this help to bring attention to the wider picture. Well done Graham.

Hi EricC,

Don't you just love 'the wider picture' ? Of course, it depends how it is painted.

Yes, teachers may be susceptible to the virus, some may even die, particularly the older ones. Carrier-children will pass the virus onto other children who will pass it on to their parents, who may be young enough not to come down with it, but who can also pass it on to work-mates - and, of course, THEIR parents. And up goes the curve again, putting even more strain on the health system and the lives of those wonderful people in it.

Just give it a few more weeks. Miss your golf, or your footie, or your haircut, for just a bit longer.

Christ, what a bunch of sooks.

Joe

It is claimed, probably correctly, that the whole lockdown philosophy is about protecting lives of the vulnerable. Unfortunately, for some, that means that opposing the lockdown thinking is the same as opposing the protection of vulnerable lives.

The notion that its possible to conceive of other ways to achieve the same or similar outcomes that doesn't involve lockdowns seems to not occur to many.

So we end up in this argument that you either go along with the current thinking, or you're indifferent to the lives of the vulnerable.

As I've said elsewhere, I don't think we can blame governments of any ilk (well apart from the CCP) for panicking in the initial stages when presented with models showing across the board carnage. But its now perfectly clear that those models were woefully incorrect both because they aren't good at modelling these issues and they were working of invalid data. For crying out loud, Australia's initial response was based on Chinese data and we now know Chinese data was entirely fake.

But we now know much more and we know that this virus is not a danger for those under 50 (only one person under 50 has died in Australia and he wasn't even Australian). I understand there are those in exceptional circumstances as outlined by Big Nana, but they are the exception. Arrangements should be made to accommodate those exceptions, but there is currently no reason why those under 50 shouldn't return to their previous lives tomorrow.

The most vulnerable need to be sequestered and protected. We can't just abandon them to the wolves. But they will be best protected under the umbrella of a growing and vibrant economy, not the current quivering in the attic approach.

Dear mhaze,

I'm certainly accept there are many paths to achieving what is best for our communities.

If Australia had adopted Taiwan's practice of early and advanced screening, of getting masks and sanitiser out to whole community, of checking the temperature of every child stepping into a school yard or every person who handles food to be consumed by others, then fine, let's keep more of our businesses open.

But we also have to recognise we are not as compliant as some of the Asian countries in our behaviour nor are we as socially minded as some of the Scandinavian countries for instance. We have settled on what works for us and most Australians are happy enough with the approach we have taken.

Shouldn't that be enough? Leave the decisions up to medical staff and our leadership, the rest in just politics.

notice all the lefties who jumped on Republicans as conspiracy theorist have gone quite about the origins of the virus being from a lab in Wuhan. Oh well just another likelihood that does not fit the hate Trump narrative. The lying left liberal media just have no shame.

Runner,

Says who it was devised in a Chinese lab ? Given the prevalence around the world of the selling of bush-meat, bush-foods, into wet-food markets, especially (it seems) in very productive and semi-tropical areas like the Congo and southern China, etc., it's possible that, like so many viruses and epidemics in the past, this is a consequence of the economic relations between hunter-gatherers and the modern economic system ?

Of course, you may have incontrovertible proof otherwise ? Unless, of course, you suffer from Trump Worship Syndrome ? You're stuck with him, I'm afraid :(

Joe

Some interesting posts here, many inverting the usual morality. It's not neo-liberalism to point out that you're shortening lives and life expectancy whatever you do, it's empiricism. Generally we prioritise the young over the old, and generally the old do the same thing. Some of you obviously have a vested interested in saving the old rather than the young, but that's not the way that's been seen to be right for most of history.

Steele invokes the Anzacs. I've always thought it was a travesty that it was mostly very young men who were sent to die in the trenches. But it was inevitable because the elderly could not fight. If it has a lesson for all of us, it is that our way of life and freedoms and standard of living is worth defending, with our lives, if it comes to that. How many Anzacs died so that one hundred years later a cowardly generation would shut down the economy lest they run a tiny risk of catching a nasty disease?

Is this the way that we'll treat the flu next season? Because the latest research shows the infection rates of this virus are pretty similar.

And this isn't a mere academic exercise for me - I have three of the risk factors for COVID, and if I were 20 years older would have an high chance of dying from it. But I don't expect a younger generation to sacrifice their longevity and quality of life so I can live a few more months in 20 years time.

If you're interested in Sweden, here's the latest with comparatives for Western European Countries. http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&year=2020-04-21&country=SWE+CHE+NOR+FIN+DNK+GBR+FRA+BEL+ITA+ESP

Interesting http://unherd.com/thepost/coming-up-epidemiologist-prof-johan-giesecke-shares-lessons-from-sweden/?fbclid=IwAR19GTIbcdLpYYfUCtH2XNVPoF8FClyMwFaKLsAxaXlYCPJqwUUs-xjEFPI

This is one time I'm glad that Scomo's in charge and well, a little slow out of the blocks, has generally been doing a fine job!

As for the rest of the commentary? Good to know there's a smattering of humans here making a Christian like contribution. Thank you, Joe, Foxy, Steele and Big Nana.

With the usual suspects who like runner want to own their own facts?

The Weimar Republic, had some very intelligent folks in their ranks, but were only able to commit their grievous excesses due to lack of normal human empathy, runner!

As some do here, make the economy and their own individual financial concerns, way more important than common humanity? Much of which is on display here! Lest we forget!?

All this, I'm all right Jack, me, me, me, C.R.A.P. happening when we've almost stomped the curve flat.

When there are no more reported cases for at least two weeks?

Confirmed by widespread testing for two weeks we can ease some of the restrictions, and get on restarting the economy! With a massive emphasis on a new self-sufficient, self-reliance. Doable if we employ an economic paradigm that makes every one dollar invested, do the work of seven or more!

An absolute essential if we are to survive the new age, Great Global Depression!

Sure to be resisted to the last man standing, by the tin-eared, recalcitrant hard right, our resident neo-nazis and special vested interest and idiotic ideologues, no names or pack drill.

Think it's tough being confined to quarters for a couple of weeks on living on the smell of it?

Try doing it for around twenty years or more, then whinge and whine about how tough you're doing it!

You whingers are like the spoiled brat losing at cricket picking up his bat and ball and snarling of home. Stop it, you'll go blind.

Take care and stay safe and hang in there for a few more weeks, it'll be worth it for us and our economy if we can and do eliminate the virus!?
Alan B.

GrahamY,
You're cherry picking. Compare apples with apples. Scandinavian countries are the ones to compare Sweden with. Nothing could be clearer.
One event can be enough. Spain and Italy had a soccer match, and both countries suffered.
America and Brazil have idiot Presidents, voila!
And I love all the old blokes saying they're prepared to take one for the team. Good for you.I'm not that silly.

Dear GrahamY,

You wrote;

“How many Anzacs died so that one hundred years later a cowardly generation would shut down the economy lest they run a tiny risk of catching a nasty disease?”

Sorry mate but that was utterly inane.

The herd immunity which you guys seem so keen on requires 70% of the population to have been infected. I do not have a single risk factor for the disease and in some ways it would be less complicated to have caught it and recovered.

Why I am scared of though is how many others might end up infected, grievously ill or die from me being a carrier. I have a surviving parent who is rightly terrified.

People are stepping up to do the right thing because they believe in protecting Australian lives. I have nieces and nephews dropping fruit and vegetables around to isolated elderly folk in our community. I think on the whole there is a lot more reaching out to others going on at the moment and that care should be applauded not derided.

Unlike Sweden we haven't shuttered major manufacturing industries here in Australia. Much of the pain is being felt in peripheral businesses like cafes, restaurants, movie theatres, sporting codes etc. There will obviously be huge adjustments made to our economy but this may well be an opportunity to reset and reinvigorate it. House prices deserved to be pulled back and speculative share markets brought to heel.

Like Aboriginal burning this may well be a chance to heal our systems like lessening our dependence on overseas workers and offshore manufacturing.

Dear Lucifrase,

Just on your video the professor say “The main differences with other countries is that you are not locked up in your home. If you go out to buy food, groceries or drugs, I mean medicines, there's no police to stop you in the street and ask you what you are doing here, that is one thing. People are asked to stay inside but there is no reinforcement or enforcement of that, people do it anyway.”

I am not locked up in my home. I go and do grocery shopping and buy medicines without being stopped by police. I have been to Bunnings a couple of times and travelled into Officeworks.

Scandinavian countries are peopled by those who are far more socially responsible than the idiots on Bondi. That has obviously been a factor in the decision making there.

Our child care centres are open and speaking to a worker tending to capacity rooms. Our high schools and universities remain closed as in Sweden although Primary schools are open there.

The gatherings in public are restricted by less stringent there and this is obviously showing up in the excess death figures but they certainly haven't gone hands off and the government denies it is striving for herd immunity.

Australia is heading into a winter so I expect our restrictions will last longer that Sweden's for that reason. Hopefully better treatments and possible vaccines will mean we will not have to sacrifice a part of our community the way Sweden has done. We will wait and see.

The whole Sweden argument is just too premature. They have adopted a longer term outlook which involves getting the worst of it out of the way early and hoping that, with the majority of the population carrying antibodies to the KungFlu, their society will return to a degree of normality reasonably rapidly.

Its an experiment, just as our policy is an experiment. But since they are adopting a longer approach, its just wrong to declare it a failure at this early stage. I'm sure the advocates of their policy will hope that second and third waves will be avoided by Sweden while hitting others. Its only after those second and third waves have passed that we can evaluate their policy.

Its a marathon. They've adopted one strategy, we another. There's no point calling the 42km race after 5kms.

I think part of the effort to get Sweden to fall in line is the terror that they might turn out to be right and everything we've done was unnecessary. If everyone does the same thing, no one can be wrong.

"If Australia had adopted Taiwan's practice..."

Taiwan had two major advantages over us. First, due to proximity and bitter experience, they knew that "China is asshole" and therefore ignored China's propaganda on the virus. Second, they weren't caught in the WHO webbing and therefore avoided falling for their utter incompetence. Two lessons, we and the rest of the world will need to learn.

"Unlike Sweden we haven't shuttered major manufacturing.."
I think our government is still trying to find some manufacturing industry. :)
I don't think Sweden has shuttered its manufacturing but a lot of it is closed because supply chains from the rest of Europe are disrupted.

Count for six weeks from the last Wuhan Virus related death in Australia and if a death hasn't occurred in that period then I reckon it might be safe to step outside and start picking up your life again.

PS Did you see where the State of Missouri is taking China to court and suing for damages resulting from the Wuhan Virus? Go Missouri! I hope those bat eating parasites get what they deserve!

Our policy is ultimately hoping for one or two (or both)things to occur before the entire social infrastructure collapses.

First, there is the hope that a vaccine will materialise. Maybe it will. But remember that there's still no AIDS vaccine 35 years after the event. Banking the nation's entire future on rolling double-six seems precarious.

Second, that we can eradicate it in the homeland. Again, perhaps we can. But then what? Pre-virus Australia was open to the world, tourists visiting here and we visiting there, foreign workers, imports, exports. Our entire economy and lifestyle was predicated on that. Is every arrival of people and goods, foreign and domestic to be quarantined upon arrival to ensure the virus never reappears? We will be a very different, and poorer, place if that's the intention.

We can say hooroo to the tourism industry. We aren't going to get too many people visiting if they need to spend the first fortnight in seclusion.

The great export earner that was education will similarly be knee-capped.

Other imports. Well there's already stories of products coming out of Asia carrying the virus. So everything gets fumigated?

Of course all cargo ships and passenger planes would need to be isolated. And their crews.

And even one error, one inadvertent Ruby Princess, and it all starts over again. That'll get old in a big hurry.

Mhaze,

It's all or nothing, isn't it, when it's all boiled down? Either every country eventually goes for 'herd immunity', the devil take the hindermost, OR every country locks down until there are no cases within its boundaries.

After all, any country which tries to impose lock-downs may well reach a point where there are no new cases - but then, a plane-load of HI carriers might arrive from somewhere else and put the lot in jeopardy. Vice versa, people from a LD country can never visit a HI country.

So ultimately, LD countries have to restrict in-coming only to those who undergo isolation, or risk a new cycle of infections.

And how long ? SA had one new case in the last 24 hours, a woman who returned by air several weeks ago from an overseas trip.

Several weeks ago. Just showing up as positive now.

She is in her twenties.

Joe

Dear mhaze,

You opined; "We can say hooroo to the tourism industry. We aren't going to get too many people visiting if they need to spend the first fortnight in seclusion. The great export earner that was education will similarly be knee-capped."

Oh come on mate, try and squeeze a thinking cap on for once. If this is your real concern then we are surely on the correct path. China is by far the single largest source of foreign students and tourists for this country. China has done what it could to eradicate the disease. Do you really think they will be sending tourists and students into infectious plague riven wells like the US or will they prefer places which have virtually stopped the disease spreading through their communities.

I was mocked for claiming the US would become the world's largest infector. It has become just that and given its policies of its venal president it will be so for years to come.

It may well be the countries like China, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia will be able to forego quarantining for visitors between their respective countries.

For the foreseeable future any traveler from the US should most definitely be forced into two weeks isolation.

1. That the Federal Government has coordinated strategies with the States that have been demonstrably successful in minimising COVID-19 spread and deaths:

- doesn't mean the strategy was wrong, and

- doesn't mean the strategies should be lifted early.

________________________________

2. Looking at Graham's first Table. COVID-19 friendly cold weather has certainly boosted COVID-19 in northern hemisphere countries that first encountered that virus in their Winter-time.

So the risk of COVID-19 being heightened by the virus-friendly cold weather, that Australia is moving into, is a good argument to continue the Federal-State anti-COVID strategies.

Perhaps lockdown has an effect only where the virus is not already well ensconced in http://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/22/there-is-no-empirical-evidence-for-these-lockdowns/

I support the planned Swedish strategy up until poor planning and control become obvious through the health system becoming overwhelmed by caseload. That hasn't happened, despite a recent rise in cases through the virus getting a hold in some nursing homes, as it has here in our smaller scale facilities.

On the other thread, Steelie has me supporting UK and USA (oh, which state, particularly, BTW?) strategies, or lack thereof. I didn't say that and it just looks desperate to say I did to win a point. I will assert, however, that wherever a health system isn't overwhelmed the process will have similar mortality outcomes, in the end, to Australia's elimination pathway.

I have to ask again, why are we cranking up for a world war level healthcare response when we are so confident in the elimination experiment? I think we all know the answer.

That's me done, on both threads.

Lets be clear loudmouth. I care about the 700,000 and their families who lost their jobs and probably more who will lose their jobs if we don't make the right choices. I care about the people who are going to miss out on better hospitals and schools because we have overdone the fiscal rescue operation and gone into more debt than we need to.

You infer that all I care about is something trivial like golf or footie. Maybe that is how you think, but that isn't the way I think when I'm arguing for the best policy for my country.

The best policy for my country is to get people quickly back to work safely, where we can. There are about 3000 deaths a week in Australia. We've had seven days in a row with about 12 deaths that involve (are not totally caused by Covid-19). The odds of getting Covid-19 in Australia now are low and of dying from it even lower. Those odds are much lower than the high probability that many people will die from all the causes typical of unemployment and financial recessions (Well described in this article and the attached references).

Secondly, if the number of infections does increase significantly, the restrictions can be tightened again. Relaxing restrictions does not have to be an all or nothing choice. My hope is that the government cares about the risks for the many who have lost their jobs and not just the few who are at risk from Covid-19.

SR,

" or will they [China] prefer places which have virtually stopped the disease spreading through their communities."

What China 'prefers' is utterly beside the point as regards what we do with prospective incoming tourists. They might prefer to come here but we, if we achieve eradication, and want to maintain that, will want to ensure that every incomer is clean.

It would take a special kind of naivety to think that China is anywhere near eradication of the disease they created or that we could ever trust their assurances if they claimed they had.

Dear mhaze,

You write; “What China 'prefers' is utterly beside the point as regards what we do with prospective incoming tourists.”

Oh is that why we spends hundreds of millions of dollars trying to attract tourists and students from that country?

We can certainly do our own testing of arrivals and 1 hour test kits look like a reality. But what I am talking about is the approach they will take to returning citizens from our shores. Just as Australians had to have cholera and typhoid shots before travelling to certain parts of the world to stop the introduction of those diseases into our populations the Chinese authorities will undoubtedly be looking to do the same.

I know Israel left closing down travel from the US until very late because they didn't want to upset the child president they have just suffered their highest daily death toll.

I certainly wouldn't like to see our hard work go up in smoke by easing travel restrictions from the US to soon and even though I hear what you say about the Chinese authorities I would be more comfortable with welcoming a visitor from China than from the US right now.

Hi Graham,

Charles Lindblom wrote of policy implementation as 'muddling through', rather than any immaculate, smooth process emanating from the genius of planners. [Well, that's my take on him.]

In Australia so far, the Morrison government has overseen more or less a lock-down policy, with not just a flattening of the curve but a major reduction in it, and about seventy six deaths from the virus, only a handful in the last week.

In the US, with a confusing array of policies in practice, the Trump Circus has overseen the deaths of nearly fifty thousand Americans (as many as were lost in Vietnam), perhaps fifteen thousand in the last week, and maybe no flattening of the curve at all, certainly no reduction in it. Wow, what a genius. Pity the Americans, at least until November.

With relatively restrictive policies and closed borders, Australia may eventually have fewer than a hundred deaths from the virus, while the US looks like having a hundred THOUSAND deaths by the end of next month. Twice as many deaths as were lost by the US in the entire Vietnam War. But no matter, as long as we can get the economy going again and people can get their toe-nails done.

The US is a vast and varied policy laboratory at the moment: we will see which policies are most effective in all their splendour, over the next few months, leading up to November.

Joe

Well said Joe.

SR,

"Oh is that why we spends hundreds of millions of dollars trying to attract tourists and students from that country?"

We USED to spend money to attract tourists. That was in the past. We were talking about the future. Wanna borrow that thinking cap you so gratuitous and, its now clear, incongruously offered t'other day?

Yes we might have a 100% accurate test that would make visiting less arduous. But I suspect it'd work just as well on USians as Asians.

Now if only we could get a test for TDS.

"with a confusing array of policies in practice, the Trump Circus"

One of the unfortunate traits of the TDS crowd is a thorough misunderstanding of the US system. The only thing they know about the US is their primal hatred of the leader.
Being a federal system much of the decision making in the US is not Trump's to make. Remember when he talked of re-opening the economy and the various governors shouted that was their decision, not his? Probably not, it doesn't fit the narrative.

If you excise NY City from the US data, things look very different in regards to the US response. That is, 49 1/2 states of the US have outcomes better than most parts of the western world. 1/2 of one state is a disaster. So if Trump is responsible for that disaster, why isn't he also credited with the successes elsewhere? And if the successes aren't his, why is the NYC disaster? The answer as usual comes back to TDS.

The NYC disaster has many causes. A massive metropolis where people lived, work and travel cheek-by-jowl. A hub (perhaps THE hub) for international travel, taking people not only from the Chinese incubator (Wuhan) but also the soon-to-be disasters in Europe. Finally a place governed by an incompetent governor more attuned to a presidential run, and run by a thoroughly clueless mayor.

settle down Joe. There are other countries like Italy, Spain and UK that have not done to well. Your TDS is certainly giving you very blurred vision.

Dear mhaze,

Mate Trump Derangement Syndrome is really strong in you isn't it. The bloke is a walking disaster of incompetence yet in your eyes he could do no wrong.

Sure he went with a travel ban against Chinese visitors but then let over 40,000 people to fly in direct from China without quarantine and only spasmodic screening. That was 279 plane loads of people introduced into the country from China after his ban.

In fact from when China first alerted the WHO in 31st of December till now nearly half a million people entered the US from that country.

Then when Trump finally banned entry from most European countries he didn't include the UK because of his mate Boris. This as despite the UK adopting a herd immunity approach.

In poured the infected with gay abandon.

Yet you think none of this was his fault? That is indeed deranged.

Runner,

You're right, the US administration is as incompetent as those of Italy and Spain, and maybe Turkey as well. All sh!thole countries, with sh!thole administrations. Their policies should be studied closely to learn what not to do. "A basket of incompetents": maybe that should be the collective noun ?

So, when Trump's policies (whatever they may be from one day to the next) bring about 1000,000, then 200,000 then ..... a million deaths from this virus in the US, will you be nominating Trump for Genius of the Year ?

I'd prefer more urgent action to save lives than to rely on a fraud.

Joe

Hi SR,

The US has currently 861,000 people tested positive for the Trump Virus, and - including some earlier mis-diagnosed - about fifty thousand deaths. More than the number killed in Vietnam.

The curve for new cases and for deaths may be flattening - maybe - but at a very high level - two thousand deaths each day, for god's sake - doesn't that mean anything to the Trump admirers (I first typed in a more descriptive word but Graham would have jumped on me) - so a million deaths is still possible by early November.

Many out in Trump's heartland, people who have never believed in the virus, it's all been a Chinese hoax (Hannity) or communist plot. Well, hello folks. Goodbye, folks.

How many cases really, across the US ? A few million ? With pathetic numbers being tested each day, who knows ?

Joe

Just rest Joe. Trump has no chance of matching the millions of slaughtered unborn babies each year by degenerates. Democrats also to busy trumping up impeachment charges and inviting people to Chinese new year to have any useful input. But don't let facts hinder your TDS and hatred.

Sorry Joe you are letting your dislike of Trump get the better of your reason. Less people have died this year than died in the same period last year. Same as the UK, so Corona is not a rampant killer. 320 million US citizens so these deaths are not as catastrophic as it might appear. Now the weather is warming up the deaths will recede just as with Flu. I am much more concerned that across the Western world we have allowed two bob political medico's to fool our idiot politicians to destroy our economies. When politicians cut Public Service salaries and their own salaries I will concede there is any sort of emergency. Before you get personal I am 73, take eight different tablets a day and lost my Mother to the 1968 Flu pandemic so I think I would be in more danger than the average Joe?

Quite right Joe lets see what happens with this virus. If a million people die in the US then Trump is in trouble. However if the number of people who die is less this year than last year, which is the case you would still not give Trump the time of day.
We should just agree to differ as I think Trump is the solution not the problem.

JBowyer,

You have to keep in mind that LOUDmouth is a sinophile and a communist and being in the pro-China camp he won't have anything good to say about the US experience with the Wuhan virus.

I was talking about Australia's economic outlook in the wake of the pandemic and as soon as I used the word 'Wuhan' he was down my throat like a crazed Chinese state public relations official.

Dear JBowyer,

“Less people have died this year than died in the same period last year. Same as the UK, so Corona is not a rampant killer.”

That is patently untrue.

This is the official UK Government report on all cases weekly mortality rates.

http://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/880812/Weekly_report_mortality_w17.pdf

Please go down to figure 1 and then explain to me how on earth you can still believe what you have just put.

You are letting you cultish view of an incompetent thug of a president to cloud your view and it is disturbing. Please reassess.

SR thank you for the reinforcement that "Politico medical" is alive and thriving in the UK too. What a hodge podge of nonsense. Euro Momo algorithm straight out of the Sir Humphrey Appleby playbook. As the Detective demanded "Just give me the facts" This fraud is going to give us a depression which will make the rich PS even richer. Those who control the present control the past those that control the past control the future and all that!

"In fact from when China first alerted the WHO in 31st of December till now nearly half a million people entered the US from that country."

When China advised WHO on 31/12 they said it wasn't transmittable between humans. So why would anyone get worried? And no one did.

But now you pretend that it was some kind on failing by Trump that he didn't realise China and WHO were lying.

You see SR, its when you feel the need to distort the facts to make your point that I know that you are wrong, and that you probably know you're wrong.

Thanks, Steele.

It looks like the weekly number of deaths in the UK have more than doubled in the past two or three weeks, and are still heading up. I suppose the longer governments leave the option of locking-down, the higher the line goes, the sharper the curve, the more the health system is put under pressure, and the longer it will take to bring that curve down, with (at least in the UK at present) twice the number of deaths each week. Twelve thousand extra deaths each week.

But clearly, any information from the British government is 'fake news' ;)

Of course, given that the handling of the crisis has been even more incompetent in the US than in the UK, one can cautiously surmise that the weekly number of deaths in the US has been much higher than in the UK. Around 900,000 have now been tested positive (even with the poor rate of testing, so god knows how many really have the virus), and fifty thousand deaths. With the curve remaining stable, it's possible that twenty thousand Americans will die each week for many weeks yet, before the curve declines to much lower figures.

I suspect that a high proportion of those who are dying are health professionals and support staff. How much longer can that be tolerated before the system is gravely diminished ?

It seems, by the way, that the support for Trump is waning amongst the elderly. Gosh, I wonder why. Why can't they stop whingeing and just inject themselves with disinfectant ?

Cheers,

Joe

Thanks, Steele.

It looks like the weekly number of deaths in the UK have more than doubled in the past two or three weeks, and are still heading up. I suppose the longer governments leave the option of locking-down, the higher the line goes, the sharper the curve, the more the health system is put under pressure, and the longer it will take to bring that curve down, with (at least in the UK at present) twice the number of deaths more than the long-term average, each week. Twelve thousand extra deaths each week.

But clearly, any information from the British government is 'fake news' ;)

Of course, given that the handling of the crisis has been even more incompetent in the US than in the UK, one can cautiously surmise that the weekly number of deaths in the US has been much higher than in the UK. Around 900,000 have now been tested positive (even with the poor rate of testing, so god knows how many really have the virus), and fifty thousand deaths. With the curve remaining stable, it's possible that twenty thousand Americans will die each week for many weeks yet, before the curve declines to much lower figures.

I suspect that a high proportion of those who are dying are health professionals and support staff. How much longer can that be tolerated before the system is gravely diminished ?

It seems, by the way, that the support for Trumpf is waning amongst the elderly. Gosh, I wonder why. Why can't they stop whingeing and just inject themselves with disinfectant if they're getting all hot and bothered ?

Cheers,

Joe

Hi Joe (Loudmouth),

Don't knock the US President too much.

He may be onto something there with the disinfectant
theory after all the sale of alcohol has gone
through the roof. Aussies are also starting to come
on board with alcohol sales going up. After all it's
all good for the economy - And helps with
the lock-down. - right? (grin).

Dear JBowyer,

Damn you lot on the right need to get your stories straight. Mhaze has repeatedly doubled down on the Euro Momo data as showing little or no impact of the virus.

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=9129&page=1

Of course time and reality caught up with him and now you are here calling it a fraud?

Do you understand why it is exceedingly difficult to ever take you seriously?

Dear mhaze,

You claim; “When China advised WHO on 31/12 they said it wasn't transmittable between humans.”

More rot from you. What they really said was; “No obvious human-to-human transmission has been observed.”

By the 20th of January this is what countries like Korea, Japan and Thailand had implemented.

http://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200121-sitrep-1-2019-ncov.pdf

Let's be honest - how many people really thought that Trumpf was being sarcastic ? Really. You were aware of that within seconds ? I'm not too bright, so it actually never occurred to me, I couldn't see it in the little smile or the barely-discernible wink. God, he's so clever.

Or maybe not. Obviously the Medical Officer behind him - perhaps because she couldn't see his subtle facial expressions - didn't see the sarcasm: she seemed to slowly take in a deep breath in utter shock, knowing that she would very soon have to say something in support of the lunacy that she had just heard from her president (being oblivious of the sarcasm).

People don't realise that this virus thingo is providing so much opportunity for jollity, humour and sarcasm. After all, what is it but a few sniffles ? No worse than the flu. Fifty thousand deaths in the US so far - pffft ! One day, there'll be a comedy show - like 'MASH' - which lampoons all the girly-man worry over this seasonal outbreak. Jesus, more people died in World War One. Like SARS or chlamydia (which Trumpf doesn't have), this is just another virus.

Which the Chinese have caused: who was to know, when they started to weld people's doors shut in early January, that it was maybe serious. Anyway, they didn't tell us. And anyway, we acted to shut down travel from China pretty quick. Well, yeah, people who had been in China could fly in from everywhere else, like from the European ski-fields, but how were we to know that ?!

Anyway, it will all be back to normal by Easter. Well, okay, it's after Easter now, but that's the Chinese fault. And WHO. And probably the UN. It's certainly not the president's fault, even though he has total power. Okay, not total, it's all up to the governors now, if they want power they can have it. I'm off to Florida.

Joe

Wow, SR, now you're going to parse the Chinese statements in order to exonerate them and convict Trump? They already knew there was human to human transmission. WHO probably did as well.

The whole world took it as meaning they knew of no human-to-human transmission. TDS really does leave its suffers plumbing the depths.

The way I'm reading this discussion there appears to a lot of cherry-picking to support what are political positions.

Countries are being awarded points for success in treating the virus when it's probably not policy at all that is making the difference. For instance, Australia and the USA both stopped Chinese arrivals at basically the same time, and in both countries the leadership was accused of being xenophobic. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-51338899. Why have we got a better result? Read the first section in my article.

Goodness only knows why we're critiquing Trump because he has little to do with us, but if anyone is interested in the facts this is an interesting summary of Trump and Biden on Corona Virus https://www.procon.org/view.background-resource.php?resourceID=007115. It shows Trump, being his usual Pollyannaish self, but you can see Biden criticising him early on for closing borders, and with not a lot to add. Whoops. You can also see that both sides have been complicit in lack of preparedness.

You can also check testing rates, and the US rate is as good as ours. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-tests-per-thousand?country=IND+KOR+USA+United%20Kingdom%2C%20tests%20performed+AUS+TWN. If testing alone were the solution, then we should be doing equally as well as each other.

The Swedish case is interesting. I think they've got it right, but I'm not going to dive on one data point and rest my whole case on it. According to Bjorn Lomborg they now have an infection rate of somewhere between 26% https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1253605358205128705 and 33% https://twitter.com/BjornLomborg/status/1253605360373583872. So they are getting close to herd immunity, and if this is the case we should see dramatic slowing soon. I'll be watching and not prejudging.

This shouldn't be a left-wing/right-wing argument, any more than mathematics is. If it is, then it suggests that the right has a monopoly on logic and empiricism, and the left a monopoly on empathy. In which case, if by being logical and empirical I'm right wing that's a good place to be and there should be more of it.

quite amusing that those with TRD continue to become more deranged. Meanwhile Chris Cuomo CNN anchor and brother of New York Mayor goes out bike riding while recovering from covid and abuses another cyclist who challenges his selfishness. Of course CNN does not report on such hypocrisy especially as this same regressive was used in ads telling people to stay at home. Unfortunately the NY Police seem to be absent. Oh well it must be Trumps fault!

Dear GrahamY,

Sorry mate but I real am finding this quite bizarre.

I accept that when mhaze looks at data he comes up with extraordinarily conclusions utterly unsupported by that data.

You claim to be an empiricist yet you put this;

“You can also check testing rates, and the US rate is as good as ours. http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-tests-per-thousand?country=IND+KOR+USA+United%20Kingdom%2C%20tests%20performed+AUS+TWN. If testing alone were the solution, then we should be doing equally as well as each other.”

Let's look at the graph with just our two countries.

http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/full-list-daily-covid-19-tests-per-thousand?time=2020-03-06..&country=AUS+USA

Even though both closed their borders to travelers from China at the same time Australia went far harder far earlier on testing than the US. That is one reason why we are doing so much better.

This is highly supportive of the notion that after the travel ban the US basically sat on its hands for a month. It's what the press has been constantly putting to Trump and he is calling it fake news. Well the 'empirical' evidence is there in spades.

In my opinion the right gave up being logical and empirical quite a while ago. A fawning subservience to economic rationalism has stripped empathy from its ethics, and in its service we now have Trump and his collection of wannabes, enabled by an antiChrist in Murdoch, wreaking havoc around the world instilling their brand of inequality in the name of obscene profits for the already obscenely wealthy.

The mainstream left are where the right use to stand.

As to the claim “Biden criticising him early on for closing borders” no he didn't. He called him out on his use of the term Chinese virus”.
http://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/27/donald-trump/fact-checking-whether-biden-called-trump-xenophobi/

Dear mhaze,

Why do you think you can lie about what WHO had said and then when pulled up on it whip out the good old Trump Derangement Syndrome card and once again claim I said something I most certainly did not.

Again, it is utterly childish and you need to stop. I'm always up for a robust discussion but your behaviour is hardly conducive to it. Grow up.

I am neither left nor right, nor do I like China or the US. I do however think there is way more to this virus than we are being told.

Take this highly interesting article, and consider the ramifications:-

http://www.unz.com/runz/american-pravda-our-coronavirus-catastrophe-as-biowarfare-blowback/

Galen

P.S. posters need to remove the ‘s’ from https:// if they want a hyperlink to work.

Thanks, Galen, is that the site which advertises "Mein Kampf" on-line ?

Gosh, I didn't realise there were so many conspiracies ......

Joe

Graham,

Re the Swedish data from Lomborg.

As I've said times here, it's way too early to make a call on the Swedish policy. They are clearly looking to take a short-term hit to gain a long-term advantage. That is, they are prepared to suffer higher infections, hospitalisations and deaths now in the expectation that, once a given level of infections have been reached all of those things will decline and stay low.

No one really knows the answer as to whether this is the right approach. But what we do, or should, know is that its too early to call it either way.

I feel that Sweden is getting so heavily criticised over its approach because too many people and governments are worried that they might just be right and that all this was for nothing. These people and governments are looking for herd impunity :) on the basis that if everyone does the same thing, no one can be shown to have done the wrong thing.

Sweden is now so far into this that there is no going back. (Britain tried to back-track and ended up falling between two stools). So we will get an answer on this eventually. The answer might not be pretty for a lot of people and governments.

Of course, the single biggest advantage of going the herd immunity approach is that, once there, no, or very little, government efforts need to be expending in controlling the virus. On the other hand, the eradication approach, which seems to be our policy, requires on-going efforts to maintain the eradication. That might be possible for a nation closed to the world but is hardly appropriate for a nation open to and relying on the outside for its economic well-being.

Dear mhaze,

This was the leading paragraph of the report Lomborg linked to in his tweet;

"The Public Health Authority has updated a mathematical model of the spread of covid-19 in Stockholm with new data, and corrected an error that existed in an earlier version. The calculations show that the peak of the spread of infection has passed. However, further precautions are required so that the curve does not face upwards."

Released on the 22nd of April. The correction involved;

“The report said that there were around 1,000 times as many people infected by the coronavirus in Sweden as the number of confirmed cases, a figure that was questioned by Swedish journalist Emanuel Karlsten at the press conference as it did not match up with the rest of the report's figures. There are currently over 15,000 confirmed cases of the virus in Sweden, and 1,000 times this figure would amount to more than the country's entire population.”
http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/uppdaterad-modellering-av-spridningen-av-covid-19-i-stockholms-lan/

The updated report stated; “The Public Health Authority has updated a mathematical model of the spread of covid-19 in Stockholm with new data, and corrected an error that existed in an earlier version. The calculations show that the peak of the spread of infection has passed.”

Which was of course rubbish. An epidemiologist for the agency claimed to a newspaper;

““Already a bit more than a week ago, the peak was reached, at least according to this model, and we can expect fewer cases each day,” Anders Wallensten, deputy state epidemiologist at the agency, told reporters at a daily news briefing.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden/swedish-health-agency-says-virus-has-peaked-in-stockholm-no-easing-of-restrictions-yet-idUSKCN2232AI

Well it did seem to peak from the 15th through to the 17th with figures of 215, 221, 221 before dropping to 163 on the day of the report. It then skyrocketed with record figures of 289 and 286 on the 23rd and the 24th.

This doesn't quite get to Trump level of incompetence but there seems to be a hell of a lot of wishful thinking and attempted justification going on, much of it unsupported by the up to date data.

Dear mhaze,

Further, you claim; “I feel that Sweden is getting so heavily criticised over its approach because too many people and governments are worried that they might just be right and that all this was for nothing.”

Not really, but here is a thought. What if due to the massive effort into finding treatments and vaccines which will allow the world to properly get on to of this succeed and are brought online in a few months then those deaths in Sweden and the UK will rightly be deemed unnecessary. That would be scaring the hell out of the officials who determined the herd immunity approach was correct.

And;

“On the other hand, the eradication approach, which seems to be our policy, requires on-going efforts to maintain the eradication. That might be possible for a nation closed to the world but is hardly appropriate for a nation open to and relying on the outside for its economic well-being.”

Well if Australia's most important trading partner, who is also the main provider of fee paying students and tourists, has decided to attempt eradication then not doing the same and instead being a potential reservoir of reinfection of that country we seek to match that direction won't that be a good thing for our balance of trade?

Hi Steele,

I would have thought that it wasn't so much a peak but a plateau, say a week's figures of no-increase then definite decline, which statistical geniuses were after. A day here or there surely means very little ?

Australia seems to have taken the sensible, precautionary approach which minimises deaths at the cost of economic activity; while Sweden surprisingly has taken the Hollywood Action Movie (Eastwood/Chuck Norris/Will Smith) approach and bet everything on herd immunity - on one-off infection, on no RE-infection occurring, at the cost of, oh, perhaps a few thousand deaths here or there, but they would be all old people, so ......

On a population basis, Sweden is not far behind the US in gross incompetence with its fifty thousand deaths (as of 25.4.20). If their government had followed the Australian model, their number of fatalities would be well under one hundred, not eighteen thousand, (18,000) AND they would have been sliding down their curve.

A couple of queries: even if one can gain immunity by having this virus once, what damage - permanent damage - might it do to one's lungs, kidneys, liver, heart, etc. ? In fact, what if - big surprise ! - serious illness from this virus weakens the body's ability to resist re-infection, and perhaps at worse levels ?

And one doctor in NY was surprised to find a spike in the number of young people with the virus who had strokes at around the 6th or 7th day.

In SA last week, one positive case had returned 'several weeks ago' from overseas. She was in her twenties.

This virus has a lot of surprises for us yet.

Cheers,

Joe

Oops.

Not eighteen thousand deaths in Sweden (childish error: eighteen thousand cases; two thousand deaths) - so if Sweden had followed the Australian model, they would have had fewer than a hundred deaths, not two thousand. Sorry.

Joe

Yes Joe two thousand deaths! People of 90 with their whole life in front of them, with so much to contribute and so healthy! Australia's youngest was late fifties and I bet was a very unhealthy person or else we would have been bombarded by this fact by the fake news.
Before you start on me I am 73, overweight, unhealthy and want to go back to enjoying my life. You know before Victoria was run by some poncy medico who stops fishing and rides his dopey bike!

LOUDmouth,

Apology accepted. (That's just the sort of guy I am.)

JBowyer,

So in Sweden, nineteen hundred people have died unnecessarily ? And perhaps forty eight thousand people in the US ? And maybe nineteen thousand in the UK ? Etc. Etc.

Yes, you're right, all those extra people had mostly had their lives already, but I don't think they deserved to die because of that. If you were to become infected at 73, I don't think that the health system should neglect you or ignore your needs. You have as much rights as anybody else to proper health care.

But of course, you may wish to advocate for a sort of scale of entitlements, with yourself well down the ladder ? Thank Christ, you don't have that 'power'.

Joe

Joe (loudmouth2), Ok you didn’t like the messenger and perhaps the message.

This one is from a scientist of international standing and someone who is an expert in understanding the difference between herd immunity and social distancing as well as the implications of our intended route to get out of lockdown. He is also a Coronavirus expert, he knows what he’s talking about.

It’s long, if you can’t read the entire document, at least read his summary on the bottom of the article. It is definitely worth the read.

Start about 6 paragraphs down as his document is introduced by a third person.

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/2020/04/25/coming-out-of-lockdown-unprepared/

Regards
Galen

Oh Joe! I do not have any power, apart from common sense which is anything but common.
People are dying as I write and as you read mate. My point is that I don't want some overblown, power mad medico having the power you are afraid could go to me. If we free things up you can scare the bejesus out of people ten times a day to keep them inside. Will you or Doctor Richard Cranium accept responsibility for the depression and suicide following this, no I did not think so.
I understand your concern with 20 Australians needing respirators and only 3,000 available. With most hospitals with only a quarter of the patients that could be treated. Compassion for corona victims and plenty of it! Cancer and elective patients hung out to dry but woke medico's following the latest fashion!
I will say it again when Andrews and his gang take a pay cut or impose one on highly paid beuracrats I will consider this an emergency!

Sr,
how come you're talking about Stockholm when the discussion was about Sweden in total? Is it because the Swedish numbers don't support your approved narrative while the Stockholm numbers kinda, sorta do?

Funny, when I wanted to talk about the effect of the NYC numbers on the US data, you acted as though you'd never heard of the place.

"What if due to the massive effort into finding treatments and vaccines which will allow the world to properly get on to of this succeed and are brought online in a few months then those deaths in Sweden and the UK will rightly be deemed unnecessary."

Yes. Indeed its been said elsewhere that the only thing that will show the Swedish option to have been wrong, and the lockdown option right, is if a vaccine is found and distributed in the next month or two. But as I said earlier, betting the bank on rolling double-6 doesn't seem terribly prudent.

"[If China] has decided to attempt eradication"

The only thing China is trying to eradicate is the evidence that the are the source of the virus and that, in trying to hide that fact from the outset, they created the pandemic.
It takes a special kind of naivety to think that China can or has eradicate the virus in their realm or that they would even seriously think they could. But there will be the usual promoters of their propaganda. Communist regimes change but useful idiots are a constant.

mhaze,

How do you think the Wuhan virus will impact future tourism to China?

Dear mhaze,

Keep up old chap. More than happy to speak about Sweden as a whole and to note that only three days ago it had its highest ever daily number of new cases.

But it was you who referred to Lomborg. “Re the Swedish data from Lomborg.” Both the tweets Graham posted were regarding the Stockholm figures. Both were proclaiming herd immunity was fast approaching and that the peak had already been reached. That was utterly blown out of the water with the new figures.

Now if this is another thing you are going to deflect from so be it but why not discuss the figures. Tell me, do you think cases in Sweden or Stockholm have reached their peak or not?

As to China I agree that the only way to sure of what Either China or the US is telling us about the infections in their respective countries will be to test all incoming visitors. That will certainly tell the story. If that testing reflects their narrative then all to the good.

However they most certainly never hid the fact that a novel virus was on the scene. Taiwan took notice as did South Korea and Japan and all fared relatively well in combating the spread of the virus.

However there were parts of Japan which eased too quickly;

“Japan’s northern island of Hokkaido offers a grim lesson in the next phase of the battle against COVID-19. It acted quickly and contained an early outbreak of the coronavirus with a 3-week lockdown. But, when the governor lifted restrictions, a second wave of infections hit even harder. Twenty-six days later, the island was forced back into lockdown.
A doctor who helped coordinate the government response says he wishes they’d done things differently. “Now I regret it, we should not have lifted the first state of emergency,” Dr. Kiyoshi Nagase, chairman of the Hokkaido Medical Association, tells TIME.”
http://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/

Let's hope that isn't Australia's fate.

Australia's strategy is hope in elimination. Its fate is clear.

BTW, WHO knew? http://tinyurl.com/yd6d5ldm