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The Forum > Article Comments > Avoiding the trap of sacrificial math > Comments

Avoiding the trap of sacrificial math : Comments

By Robert Reed, published 9/4/2020

Must we pit the health of the economy against the lives of the many people projected to die if strong measures are not taken against the spread of the coronavirus?

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Steelie, surely you're intelligent enough to understand that deaths per capita at this stage in proceedings is no better a basis for determining the gold standard than percentage mortality of the infected you tried on earlier?

Of course Sweden will be ahead on deaths per capita in its pursuit of as 'safely' as possible achieving herd immunity, i.e. within the capacity of the health system to cope with cases. Note the downturn in its curve, what do you make of that given its lack of lockdown like its neighbours waiting for the vaccine to come?

The longer we keep thinking we can eliminate this virus with lockdown, tracking and isolation, the sooner we'll be on our way out of this. Isolation worked with the last SARS epidemic, but this is a whole new beast. Here's something out of Iceland on that highlights the pointlessness of the Australian approach so that whenever we take our foot of the virus' throat, or before, it will rear up until herd immunity is reached naturally or a vaccine comes to the rescue, while our economy goes to hell in a handbasket: http://geneticliteracyproject.org/2020/04/13/what-the-rest-of-the-world-can-learn-from-icelands-mass-coronavirus-testing-project/?fbclid=IwAR20TSi-22VQRk97E83VUaonMrwDAOsp_kxl0RXicU1qxcsPI2YpOLYPCLA
Posted by Luciferase, Tuesday, 14 April 2020 2:26:13 PM
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...a correction of the first sentence in the last paragraph. I meant the longer it will take to make our way out, of course.
Posted by Luciferase, Tuesday, 14 April 2020 2:33:52 PM
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Dear GrahamY,

Well it looks like there might be another factor.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#54edba693dec

Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland all have female leaders. The only Scandinavian country which doesn't is of course Sweden.
http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=DNK+FIN+NOR+SWE+ISL

Compared to other male lead countries;
http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=DNK+FIN+NOR+SWE+ISL+DEU+FRA+GBR

I wonder how much gender informs the approach taken?
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 14 April 2020 2:34:14 PM
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SteeleRedux,
A nicely bandaged injury is vastly different from the festering wound it conceals !
Posted by individual, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 8:28:37 AM
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