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The Forum > Article Comments > Avoiding the trap of sacrificial math > Comments

Avoiding the trap of sacrificial math : Comments

By Robert Reed, published 9/4/2020

Must we pit the health of the economy against the lives of the many people projected to die if strong measures are not taken against the spread of the coronavirus?

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It's maths in Australia, not math.
Posted by ttbn, Thursday, 9 April 2020 10:02:05 AM
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While the lives lost to the virus are paramount, cognisance must be given to the economy. It is the past strength of the economy that even allows us to ponder the balancing act.

The health system depends utterly on the economy and eventually it will falter if the latter is allowed to hibernate for too long.

When the projections were for thousands of deaths here and many times more for the US, it was clear that taking measures to save as many of those lives as possible was required. Carnage at that level was in excess of normal deaths rates and would be unsustainable for a humane society. Additionally, in those early days it wasn't known that the carnage would be concentrated in the elderly.

So the economy was closed down.

Now much better information is available. It is now clear that the original dire warnings were overblown and that we won't get thousands of deaths here or 500000 in the US. Whatismore it is clear that the deaths are heavily restricted to the elderly - in the US the average age of Wuhan virus deaths is 80.

That is not to say that the elderly ought to be abandoned to their fate, but that there is no necessity to isolate the young. Sure some people under 60 have and will succumb but that is so for any disease or other risk.

Had we known that from the outset (and its no one's fault that we didn't) then our response may have been very different. Isolate the old, allow the working population continue to produce, throw all possible resources at protecting those most at risk and finding a way to inoculate the society from any infection.

There is no reason why we can't now adopted those policies except that some leaders may have to eat a little humble pie.

Its not an either/or problem. The victims rely on the health system and the health system relies on the economy. Both can be managed, especially if we are prepared to learn from what the data is now telling us.
Posted by mhaze, Thursday, 9 April 2020 2:20:17 PM
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Given how easy it is to make as much oxygen as we'd ever need! Can't see any logic other than a cold hard, cost-benefit analysis, for rationing this life and virus killing gas!?

The economy will get up off of the canvas and go on to win as a world champion, but only if the recovery paradigm is locked in to cooperative capitalism at every opportunity.

Those organisations that want to return to business, as usual, should have all support mandatorily withdrawn and asked to sink or swim on their own! Particularly those who've only survived on extremely generous taxpyer largess!

Take care and stay safe!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Thursday, 9 April 2020 5:52:53 PM
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Normally this time of year, just about everyone in our region either has or had the Flu. It aways coincides with Public Servants returning from the South after the Xmas leave.
This year I haven't as yet had the normal severe symptoms nor do I know of others being "down with the Flu".
How about in other areas ? Is it only COVID-19 or have people come down with normal Flu also ?
Is the social distancing & closing of borders keeping the normal Flu at bay ? If so, let's do it every year from January till April !
Imagine what positives there could be from changing the staff returns to another time of the year ?
Posted by individual, Thursday, 9 April 2020 7:27:05 PM
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Dear mhaze,

Well mate you tell me what death rate you feel we should be comfortable with.

New Zealand has a 0.1 deaths per 100,000 infected.

Australia is at 0.8.

Should we follow the path of the US which is at 4.5?

What about those countries like the UK, the Netherlands and Sweden who decided to go for the type of herd immunity you are hinting at without saying it directly?

Sweden – 8.1%

Netherlands – 10.9%

U.K. - 11.5%

Your call.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Thursday, 9 April 2020 8:16:33 PM
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SR,

You wrote: "New Zealand has a 0.1 deaths per 100,000 infected.

Australia is at 0.8."

Since no one in any country knows how many people have been infected then your comparison is invalid. I suspect you mean cases found but that's an entirely different thing based on testing procedures, tests available and reporting protocols. I'd say there is universal agreement that we are finding only a fraction of the total number of infections. Since we don't know how many are infected in any one country, then we can't compare figures across countries or time. That's why the Diamond Princess was so important...see earlier thread.

You wrote: "Sweden – 8.1%"

% of what?

"Well mate you tell me what death rate you feel we should be comfortable with."

Well there is no death rate that I'm comfortable with...see above where I wrote.."While the lives lost to the virus are paramount,.."

But in the grown-up world we recognise that people are going to die. The whole flatten the curve meme isn't about stopping deaths, just spreading them out so that the health system can cope without collapsing (see north Italy).

Earlier in the piece, we didn't know how many were at risk and we didn't know the risk factors. Now we know a lot more and the responses need to change to accommodate that new knowledge.

Again, in the grown-up world, we know that there are no perfect solutions, just bad and less bad.

Since the virus arrived here, more people have died in road accidents than have died from the virus itself. Have you called for the closure of all road transport? If not why not? What level of road deaths are you comfortable with? Your call.

As above, the health system we are trying to protect via curve flattening depends utterly on the economy. There will be a point where the closure of one will affect the ability of the other. And I'm not comfortable with that.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 10 April 2020 9:29:53 AM
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Interesting read !

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2018/jul/23/tech-industry-wealth-futurism-transhumanism-singularity
Posted by individual, Friday, 10 April 2020 10:49:46 AM
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Dear mhaze,

Of course it should have been horses for courses. These are the comparative figures.

Sweden – 7.8 deaths per 100,000 infected

Netherlands – 13.9 deaths per 100,000 infected

U.K. - 12 deaths per 100,000 infected

The USA has overnight jumped to 5 deaths per 100,000 infected.

So let's make the call, at what level of deaths from Corona virus per 100,000 of overall population is acceptable? At what mark do we consider countries have failed their populations?

You were the one who claimed the US was the most prepared of all the nations yet it now leads the world in deaths from the virus.

Are you still contending Trump has done a great or even a good job? Remember when I said they would be a world leader in infections and I was accused of having Trump derangement syndrome? I knew the man better than the rest of you it seems. The same goes for Boris.

It is pretty plain which state out of NSW (Liberal) and Victoria(Labour) went hard and went early. The differences are stark.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2020/apr/08/coronavirus-cases-australia-numbers-new-stats-graph-map-by-postcode-covid-19-death-toll
Posted by SteeleRedux, Friday, 10 April 2020 11:25:32 AM
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Face facts, the global economy is screwed by massive debt! And with some seeing war as the only solution that works for them, namely the rich, powerful and privileged for who human life are just numbers to be spent or vassals to be sacrificed at the altar of (there will be many deaths) personal self-indulgence.

If we are to avoid that outcome, with the value of herded cattle or less and bound for the abator of human conflict, except the safest place in any future conflict will be on the front line! As any enemy will focus on the civilian populations and areas of production and manufacturing/wealth creation!

Alternatively, we could accept the Christian code for living, we are allegedly guided by and embrace inclusive cooperative capitalism and the co-ops they create/empower/prosper. As that occurs? Reinvent our own economy as the strongest and soon to be the largest and most powerful.

Assisted in that outcome by a return to the prewar, gold standard! Tax reform, the genuine article not the Clayton's complexity that masquerades as a fair and equitable tax system! ( 15% FLAT) Plus return to affordable energy! Because every wester style economy is supported by just two pillars, energy and capital!

Energy? MSR thorium and MSR nuclear waste burners! And biogas! cant ever run out of the latter! Or even experience short supply but an eternal, 50%+ surplus! And without ever drilling so much as a single hole in the ground!

Capital? Put co-ops up as our future in every possible aspect/production /manufacturing and the usual economic flow on factors will make every one dollar do the economic work of seven!
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Friday, 10 April 2020 12:03:48 PM
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Footnote: Global debt is now north of 320 TRILLION and climbing! How many humans should we sacrifice at the altar of mindless soulless, big business, business as usual, to repay that?

Or should we with the business as usual paradigm in play? Socialise the debts and privatise the profits? It worked last time? Or did it?
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Friday, 10 April 2020 12:22:45 PM
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Dear mhaze,

Perhaps it would be clearer to make this directly deaths due to CoVID19 per million head of population.

Spain - 311

Netherlands - 131

United Kingdom - 104

Sweden – 68

United States - 44

Australia - 2

http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=AUS+NLD+ESP+SWE+GBR+USA

Note this changes daily.

What is the acceptable number for Australia? 5? 10? 20? or should we we just happy to stay on par with the US since you think so highly of their response?

Interested to see if you can give us a figure.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Friday, 10 April 2020 12:33:44 PM
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SR,

Well again I need to point out that deaths to infections is a useless ratio(at least for the time being) since we don't know how many infections there are. We know how many infections have been found. But that's not the same thing and is heavily dependent on how many tests have been done. Since the US has done way more tests than any other nation, of course they've found more infections.

It means nothing at the moment but will have some meaning after we've been able to get a handle on how many people in the entire population were infected. But I understand that you (mistakenly) think it puts in the US in an unfavourable light and and therefore want to use it, despite its inappropriateness. Same old SR.

"What is the acceptable number for Australia?"
I've already told you there isn't an acceptable number. There will be deaths and we need to limit them within the limits of our capacity. Equally there are no acceptable numbers of road deaths but we can't just bring the road system to a close to overcome those deaths. (Yes I noted that you assiduously avoided that point - as you always avoid things that reveal your cant).

"Remember when I said they would be a world leader in infections and I was accused of having Trump derangement syndrome? "

No, I don't remember that. Show me.
oh and they are only the world leader if you fall for the Chinese lies and the incomplete data from India, Indonesia, Iran. Which of course you do.

Do you realise that you are arguing against yourself? On the one hand you argue that the projected level of deaths in the US is falling because of the success of social distancing and yet you say that Trump's efforts to limit deaths by social distancing is failing.

Double-think lives.
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 10 April 2020 1:28:55 PM
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Dear mhaze,

You write; “Well again I need to point out that deaths to infections is a useless ratio(at least for the time being) since we don't know how many infections there are.”

Which is exactly why I followed it up with figures of deaths due to CoVID19 per million head of population. Why isn't this a pretty definitive figure on how well a country did in combating the virus.

And we can do that with tests performed too.

Norway 22,097

Switzerland 20,625

Germany 15,730

Australia 12,964

New Zealand 11,548

Denmark 11,050

Canada 9,812

South Korea 9,310

The USA, largely because of their slow start are at 7,168. Hardly a ringing endorsement of the country you claimed was the best prepared in the world.

http://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Now Birx, even the woman you have been touting in your arguments, said yesterday the drop in US death projection is due to Americans changing their behavior through social distancing.
http://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/08/politics/deborah-birx-social-distancing-models/index.html

No comment on you from the NSW and Victorian figures? Doesn't fit the narrative?

As to the Trump derangement syndrome there was this from you;

“SR wrote: "The USA is at the top of that list because they contributed more infected travellers to Australia than any of the rest."

...

I know in the land of Trump Derangement Syndrome, everything Trump does is, by default, wrong, but just for the fun of it....

The Countries Best And Worst Prepared For An Epidemic...."The United States was named as the country with the strongest measures in place and it came first with 83.5 out of 100."

Ultimately each country will be able to dissect via death figures just how effective the measures each implemented were in slowing the infection rate in order to not overwhelm their systems. It will be interesting reading. How did Boris's attempt at an initital herd immunity strategy to protect the economy ultimately cost in lives?
Posted by SteeleRedux, Friday, 10 April 2020 2:09:57 PM
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SR,

Well now you're just making stuff up, or muddying the water to hide error, or are just plain confused - its so hard to tell these days.

First you assert that " I said they would be a world leader in infections and I was accused of having Trump derangement syndrome?" Then when I say that no such prediction was made, you pivot to the claim that you did make about infection in Australia from the US - an entirely different issue.

Now I know that you'll now play your childish games to avoid admitting that error but I won't play. But both you and I know that you screwed up, stuffed up or just made it up there.

" the country you claimed was the best prepared in the world."
Well I was just passing on the the findings of the expert group.

But how is testing done related to that issue of preparedness. A country can hardly be prepared to test for a specific new virus or is that too logical for you to fathom?

"the drop in US death projection is due to Americans changing their behavior through social distancing."
So you agree that the Trump government has been an exemplary job then in implementing social distancing. Well it was hard work but we did get there.

"No comment on you from the NSW and Victorian figures? Doesn't fit the narrative?"

I'm not sure what you want a comment on. I don't know what you think you've found in the state figures. I also don't know what narrative you're talking about that is apparently negated by the state data.

So again, are we gunna close all road traffic in SR-land or not?
Posted by mhaze, Friday, 10 April 2020 3:44:20 PM
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Interested to see if you can give us a figure.
SteeleRedux,
What an insipid question ! You don't seriously expect an answer to that !
Posted by individual, Friday, 10 April 2020 4:07:45 PM
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Dear mhaze,

Just how many ways can you find not to answer simple questions?

Can I try and be as simple and specific as I can.

At what level of deaths per 1,000,000 due you think would allow us to claim we have done a good job of controlling the virus?

When looking at the graphs in the Guardian article which show a markedly different infection curve between Victoria and NSW can you give your reasons why they might have differed if it wasn't for Andrews taking a far more aggressive approach.

As to my claims about the US I said in the same thread in early March “The last three cases in Victoria all came from the US. It may well end up being the world's primary 'infector' if they don't shape up.'” Something one poster described as “weird , extreme and downright silly.”

Two posts later you are accusing me of having Trump derangement syndrome.

I then said;

“Right now http://covid19info.live/ has the US at 8th on the list of confirmed cases. If Trump is doing such a good job we would expect that to go down. My bet is it will instead hit 5th in a week. Reason, because Trump can't slow roll this forever. Freedom of the press in the US means Trump can't control the media like Chinese authorities. Limited test kits serves his purpose admirably. If cases aren't verified by testing they don't make the list. Keeping the numbers of confirmed cases low keep pressure off his precious stockmarket and helps in his election chances.”

A little later I said;

“Dear individual, I flagged to mhaze a little over a week ago that the US which was then 8th on the list of countries with infected citizens would hit 5th within a week. They are now third.”

Within another week they hit the top.

How did you get it so wrong and I get it so right?

Dear individual,

I'm happy to give a figure. Any country which manages to keep deaths less that 20 per million will have done a good job in my opinion.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Friday, 10 April 2020 8:42:26 PM
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One question! We have had two pandemics, in 1957 (Flu) and 1968 (Flu) both gave us in excess of one million deaths. Only now have we let ratbag medicos and uniformed major domos take charge and look concerned and close things down. No loss of money for any of those, in fact the fat fanny running the NSW RFS has been promoted to manager of wasting money and looking serious on TV. Some sort of natural disaster nonsense which will allow them to properly balls us all up.
I want any further "National Emergency" to include suspension of all public service benefits and pensions and wages reduced to jobstart level. Lets see how quick it is sorted then?
Posted by JBowyer, Friday, 10 April 2020 9:07:30 PM
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SR, the health system (including access to ventilators) in Oz , nor in NZ, has yet come anywhere near stressed capacity. Yet by your figures the death rate is 8x higher in NZ. Surely the lesson in that is not that Kiwis are hardier or that our medicine is poorer. Your rating system of various approaches to the virus doesn't hold water.

This is a highly infectious, novel virus. People will die over whatever period it's allowed to run in the various jurisdictions and then we'll get an idea of percentages, i.e. retrospectively. That's when we'll see who's right and what the gold standard approach should be. My guess is smashing the economy to bits will be seen to have been in vain, because the mortality stats will be same whatever was done, after correcting for demographics.
Posted by Luciferase, Friday, 10 April 2020 10:19:05 PM
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SR,

Whenever you refer to an old post AND fail to offer a link, my initial assumption is that you're hiding something. Rarely wrong.

Here you ask "How did you get it so wrong and I get it so right?" about some claims about the US moving up the list of countries with the most infections.

BUT, I never commented on that post. Indeed no one commented on it. And most definitely neither I nor anyone else raised your TDS in regards to the post.

No one SR. No one. Yet in your derangement you see yourself assailed on all sides. Calling Dr Freud!

And why did no one comment? Because your claims were neither startling or even prescient. That the US would find more infections was obvious. Its as though you declare that the sun will rise in the east and then declare victory when it happens.

Oh dear SR.

The only time I referred to your diagnosed TDS was when you said the US was the highest source of infections coming to Australia when your own post showed that was false.

"Just how many ways can you find not to answer simple questions?"

Simple or simplistic? But I've answered it over and over just not the way you want.
Posted by mhaze, Saturday, 11 April 2020 8:55:43 AM
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Thought I'd dive in here betweenn MH and SR. There are a few misconceptions.

One is that the mortality rate is anything but 100%. So what we are talking about here is not so much killing people, but shortening their lives. Given the average age at death, there is not a lot of shortening going on.

Another is that shutting down the economy comes without a cost in shortening of lives, and that is wrong too. So the question isn't "How many deaths are you comfortable with, but whose deaths, and at what stage of their life." Paul Fritjers does a very good job of laying this out at Club Troppo. http://clubtroppo.com.au/2020/04/08/how-many-wellbys-is-the-corona-panic-costing/

A further issue is that we are only part way through this epidemic. It is quite possible that places like Italy, the USA, and Sweden, are experiencing a higher rate of infection and death now, but later Australia will still be bumping along with new infections and deaths, and they will be back to work.

Can I suggest that for your argument to be easiest to follow for all of us, including yourselves,that you use the same data source. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus is based at Oxford university and has the most comprehensive data, and the best visualisations that I am aware of. I'd recommend that.
Posted by GrahamY, Saturday, 11 April 2020 9:31:04 AM
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Cui Bono - Who Benefits?

Big Pharma i.e. Vaccine Manufacturers, Patent Holders, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, US Government funded agencies and the people behind them.

This whole thing reminds me of a story I've heard before:
About an anti-virus company that was also writing computer viruses with a special team out in a private back room.
Posted by Armchair Critic, Saturday, 11 April 2020 9:36:49 AM
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So peculiar it should seem that success may be the most frightening outcome.
Posted by jamo, Saturday, 11 April 2020 11:21:32 AM
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Dear mhaze,

Your Trump derangement comment came a couple of posts after this comment from Aspley; “" The last three cases in Victoria all came from the US. It may well end up being the world's primary 'infector' if they don't shape up.' is weird , extreme and downright silly.”

People can go to the thread if they can be bothered (which would be no one) and decide for themselves. http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=20781&page=0#366391

This is obviously a normal run of the mill mhaze diversion tactic when you don't want to answer questions. I will try again. What death figure per 1,000,000 of population below which we can assume a country has done a good job of lessening the impact of the virus?

Now you assert “So you agree that the Trump government has been an exemplary job then in implementing social distancing. Well it was hard work but we did get there.”

No the Trump government until recently has done an appalling job and it was only decisive action by the states, just like in Australia, that has managed to curb infections.

Dear GrahamY,

Yes http://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus is a good site which is where I directed mhaze in an earlier post.

It doesn't have the resources assessments that http://www.healthdata.org/covid has.

The one I have perhaps used as my default has been http://covid19info.live/ as it gives a quick snapshot and has a pretty solid updates section.

Anyway I'm wondering if you had formed an opinion on how we judge the effectiveness of government responses around the world? Granted continental Europe with fluid borders makes this a little more difficult to isolate them from the actions of neighbouring states but for countries like Australia, UK, USA, NZ it will be more straight forward.

Dear Armchair Critic,

The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is not for profit rather is giving money away to combat this. How are they personally benefiting? Loopy stuff mate.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Saturday, 11 April 2020 12:13:47 PM
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GrahamY,

"Given the average age at death, there is not a lot of shortening going on."

Yes, I understand that intellectually a disease that primarily targets the old and already sickened is less devastating than one that targeted the young. But we really can't rank effects on that basis. I have a 90 year old mother-in-law living with us. While her death would be less devastating than say the death of a 10yr old grandson, emotionally it would have the same distress.

My main point in this and other threads has been that the response was appropriate when information on the disease was so scant. But its not longer so and new responses are required. As you say, closing the economy isn't cost free and only seems so to those who don't really understand how the economy actually works. We as a society will be paying for the all this for a very long time, perhaps decades. The quicker we adopt more appropriate responses the better.

"...we are only part way through this epidemic. "

Yes, think of it like a marathon. Some runners have decided to go full bore from the start, others to pace themselves. There's no point in deciding the winner at the 11 mile mark. Even worse we don't even know how long the marathon is.

As to the statistics, I don't actually think there are any numbers useful enough to compare nations. For example we know that nations like China, Russia and Iran are outright lying about their virus status. Equally we don't know that the everyone's counting the same thing. Birx said recently that some US states are counting people who died WITH the virus rather than those who died OF the virus. Its been said that 80% of the north Italian deaths died from other conditions exacerbated by the virus or, worse, due to not being able to access needed health services.

And the real issue is that no nation has the faintest idea how many people actual have the infection.

So ask me in 2 years to compare nations.
Posted by mhaze, Saturday, 11 April 2020 1:29:23 PM
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Dear COVIDstanis

Slightly off thread but on COVID, behold my latest work of poetry.

THOSE COVID DAYS OLD FRIEND

Sung by a positively Welshy Bonnie Tyler, with some handy Norwegian subtitles: http://youtu.be/6_vQEpdd83I

Yesterday I wiled away the hours
Dreams of young fresh lazy days with you
Once we had our sunny lives in Dapto
Then red smoky days left us feeling blue

These lonely days my friend
I hope they quickly end
No song and dance
Forever and a day
Don’t live the life we choose
Survive on chips and booze
These lonely days, oh squalid COVID days

La la la la la la ...

Then the dizzy years went rushing by us
We lost our toned bodies on the way
And when at last I see you at the Bowlo
You technicolour yawn and run away

These lonely days my friend
I hope they quickly end
No song and dance
Forever and a day
So tragicly like yobs
Dentures in our gobs
These lonely days, oh misspent COVID days

La la la la la la

Just tonight I stood before the mirror
Nothing fits the way it used to be
In the glass I saw my fat reflection
The product of too much Easter choclatee

These lonely days my friend
I hope they quickly end
No song and dance
Forever and a day
Don’t live the life we choose
Orthotics in our shoes
Those lonely days, oh bl--dy COVID days

La la la la la la

To the door I hobbled in my slippers
I heard your voice familiar through the years
Through the grill I smell the reek of kippers
And now I see you Botoxed to the ears

These lonely days my friend
I hope they quickly end
No song and dance
Forever and a day
Don’t live the life we choose
Survive on chips and booze
These lonely days, oh effing COVID days

cry cry cry cry cry cry

by Pete
(Some words courtesy http://www.amiright.com/parody/60s/maryhopkins3.shtml )
Posted by plantagenet, Saturday, 11 April 2020 2:41:09 PM
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Whoops

Some other sheila was singing the words.

Here's the real positively Welshy Bonnie Tyler, singing my song with some handy Norwegian subtitles http://youtu.be/gnjusvjK5Qk

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Saturday, 11 April 2020 2:51:51 PM
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0.37% according to http://www.technologyreview.com/2020/04/09/999015/blood-tests-show-15-of-people-are-now-immune-to-covid-19-in-one-town-in-germany/
Posted by Luciferase, Saturday, 11 April 2020 7:17:22 PM
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"The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is not for profit rather is giving money away to combat this. How are they personally benefiting? Loopy stuff mate."

Bill's spending billions building 7 x BSL5 labs and wants mandatory vaccinations for everyone.
He's the second biggest donor to the WHO.
He cares about depopulation and intellectual property.

We're going to have to look at all these things.

Watch this one.
Boom Info on Maeve Kennedy, Birx, Gates - CORRECTED
http://youtu.be/zoK6h4Mg7E8
Posted by Armchair Critic, Saturday, 11 April 2020 8:11:59 PM
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FYI http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf?fbclid=IwAR3Ws1GOiBRfwtr2iO6svS7W7xUS-hVdx4crF2zKFV5xvCVktk_38P3MLiU
Posted by Luciferase, Saturday, 11 April 2020 11:26:52 PM
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Statistics are slippery things. Daily figures don't matter when we are looking at averages. Would there be fewer deaths in the long run if we protected vulnerable groups, and allowed the virus to spread quickly so we could develop some kind of herd immunity? This was the approach taken in 2017 and it's what some experts are saying now.

After all, the dream of a vaccine for coronavirus may be slightly overblown. And once the lockdowns are lifted in 12-18 months the virus may simply spread once more, and we will be back where we started, but with the added disaster of self-inficted economic destruction and concomitant human suffering.
Posted by Jay Bee, Sunday, 12 April 2020 11:56:04 AM
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By my very BOTE calculation it would take roughly 18 months to reach an overall herd immunity population if the infection rate was kept to the number of hospital beds available and the vulnerable (including over 65's) were isolated. Controlling the infection to any fine degree would be the monumental challenge. Anything that doesn't involve the isolation measure would take a lot longer.

I think we just have suck it up and get started instead of this dithering. The virus has more patience than we have, so the PM's exhortation is wasted and we can't proceed on the presumption of a vaccine, on any timeline.
Posted by Luciferase, Sunday, 12 April 2020 1:54:41 PM
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Dear Luciferase,

Why don't you just come out and tell everyone what it is you are hoping for: A FINAL SOLUTION. We will even let you dress up in a sharp looking uniform and let you change your name to Himmler.
Posted by Mr Opinion, Sunday, 12 April 2020 2:04:01 PM
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Hi Jay Bee

With your "Statistics are slippery things. Daily figures don't matter when we are looking at averages."

You seem to exhibit a rather sick detachment. Here's a poignant statistical comparison.

While Australia has averaged less than ONE COVID death PER DAY total

"Yesterday in America, 1,940 people died from coronavirus."

see the ABC's April 10, 2020 article http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-10/coronavirus-triggers-struggle-between-donald-trump-and-china/12138772

[furthermore in that article]

"In New York, things are looking so dire that workers are being asked to don protective gear as they dig mass graves on Hart Island in the Bronx."
Posted by plantagenet, Sunday, 12 April 2020 2:19:14 PM
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Mr O, the truth you support seems to be Godwin's Law. It would be nice to know, articulately,what the scientific basis is for the approach towards eliminating the virus that requires ongoing curtailment of our rights.

Why do so many people die? Because there's no herd immunity so everyone is susceptible and 0.37% of everyone is a big number. Influenza constantly evolves to overtake the immune system of only a portion of the population at a time. 0.37% mortality is the equivalent of a bad flu, but nowhere near the Spanish flu (between 1% and 6%, say ten times greater).

We must accept that CV19 will reap its same pound of flesh regardless, almost, of how we try to shape the population infection curve. This is not the fault of state or federal governments.

Any idea that we can eliminate it by anything other than inoculation of the population through infection is founded completely in fear and hope.
Posted by Luciferase, Sunday, 12 April 2020 3:03:47 PM
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Dear Lucifrase,

This is the scene outside a hospital in Moscow today. Did you really want this for Australia?

http://www.liveleak.com/view?t=9laZo_1586643988
Posted by SteeleRedux, Sunday, 12 April 2020 3:51:06 PM
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If your mum was still alive GY, and she was one of the elderly who succumbed to covid-19? You'd probably be a little less indifferent to the trauma of other folks who lose their loved ones?

I see that SR is trotting out figures to present the US as the new epicentre and source of infections? As some sort of indictment of Mr Trump?

Hardly fair, given the American medical system with all its failings and inequity was well entrenched years ago and inherited by his administration! Therefore, a pretty pointless, point-scoring debate!

What they and we do in response, is tantamount!

I see some graduated return to almost full production etc, when we have enough test kits and testing to ensure a covid-19 free workplace! With those who fail placed in mandatory isolation for the mandatory two weeks!

And until and if an effective vaccine is found and rolled out, our borders will need to be a closed-door you can only enter after two weeks to a month of quarantine on an offshore island!

Moreover, I stand by my earlier comments about our recovery and our best way forward!

This virus will stay around for centuries given cats can get it and the number of cats around the world, where some of their populations exceed those of the human host! And possibly mutate into something far more virulent?

And cats (carriers) are extremely gregarious animals, that rub themselves all over their human hosts, and have disgusting personal hygiene habits!

As for a vaccine? I'm picking the new genetics path as being the most productive?

Take care and stay safe.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Sunday, 12 April 2020 4:05:11 PM
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Lucifrase,

The people I see who are advocating the herd immunity approach are the money mongers who are more worried about losing wealth than losing lives so I'm assuming that you are one of those.

For me, the herd immunity approach is the first step towards an ultimate extinction event for the human species.
Posted by Mr Opinion, Sunday, 12 April 2020 4:12:21 PM
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Luciferase "0.37% mortality is the equivalent of a bad flu, but nowhere near the Spanish flu (between 1% and 6%, say ten times greater)."

Here is a list of the worst flu pandemics of the last 100+ years: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_pandemic

The only flu pandemic worse than this current pandemic in terms of case fatality rate (assuming your 0.37% for our current non-flu pandemic) is the 1918 "Spanish Flu". And its fatality rate as you've pointed out has a very large uncertainly band. But if you take the lower figure you've given (ie. 1%) then 0.37% is within an order of magnitude of this. However, what must be remembered is that the 1918 flu was during WWI when resources where scarce, medical knowledge very limited (they didn't even know what a virus was back then) and the population was very stressed both mentally and physically. The 0.37% of the current corona virus on the other-hand was from a population that is one of the wealthiest and healthiest and with access to the world's best modern helath care technologies/techniques/knowledge.

Also note that the current virus compared to all the other major flu pandemics (besides 1918) is worse. Eg, the Asian flu of 1957/58 had a fatality of < 0.2%.

But there is more to the story than just fatality. As far as we can tell this virus has a higher reproduction rate compared to flues. For most cases of flu the R0 number is less than 1.5 and for bad ones less than 2 but estimates for this virus start at 2 and go up from there. Even a small increase in R makes a large difference in how it spreads and how hard it is to manage/contain/eradicate.
Posted by thinkabit, Sunday, 12 April 2020 6:10:24 PM
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Steelie, avoiding this will require good judgement and community compliance with measures to slow spread. What's your solution?

Mr O, it's not lives versus the economy but is based on acceptance that the virus will exact its price whatever we do to stop it. Do you have a plan to save everybody? Hint, if it's test and track you're too late.

thinkabit, What about SARS, whose R0 wasn't far off CV19's and with ~15%(!) mortality. The infected didn't transmit the virus until several days after symptoms appeared and were at their most infectious only by the tenth day when symptoms were severe. So, isolation of patients was enough to control spread. If cases were infectious before symptoms appeared, or if asymptomatic cases transmitted the virus, the disease would have been like CV19, unstoppable without the lockdown we're in, (or so we're hoping). What's your solution
Posted by Luciferase, Sunday, 12 April 2020 10:03:54 PM
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Is hoping for a vaccine smart? http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blogs/seeing-the-invisible/india-has-only-one-choice-anders-tegnells-swedish-approach/?fbclid=IwAR2BRyP-RWBGaU40XtE4Qy8CF2bK_5RULddRSBks5tkeppyvUYmx62ju16Q
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 13 April 2020 12:11:50 AM
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Luciferase,

It's not my role to come up with a plan.

I am interested in understanding the cause and effect of the Wuhan pandemic and what can be done to prevent this happening again.

The cause of the pandemic is obviously the relationship the world has developed with China over the past 30 years.

The effect is firstly the illness and deaths but in its wake we will see mass poverty as the downturn in global consumerism causes societies and their economies to collapse.

It's only early days so I suggest you hunker down and prepare yourself for what's to come over the next year and expect it might take up to ten years to fix.

But I suppose you are one one those who think it's a simple matter of applying a month or two of the herd immunity approach and the world returns to its pre-Wuhan pandemic state. Do this and expect to see successive waves of epidemics that not only ruins economies but decimates populations.

Following the Black Death plague of Europe in 1347 there were outbreaks across Europe for another 400 years. Is that what you want for the world after the first instance of the Wuhan pandemic?

China used the herd immunity approach in Wuhan but I expect to see smaller outbreaks of the Wuhan virus happening throughout China for a long time, maybe centuries. Which makes me think that China should be in permanent isolation for a long time.
Posted by Mr Opinion, Monday, 13 April 2020 9:20:40 AM
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It's not my role to come up with a plan.
Mr Opinion,
That mentality is a trait of an opportunistic fence-sitter !
Posted by individual, Monday, 13 April 2020 10:35:51 AM
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individual,

If you think it should be my role to come up with a plan to combat the Wuhan pandemic then maybe you could be so stupid enough to give me a brief specifying the outcomes I am required to produce.
Posted by Mr Opinion, Monday, 13 April 2020 10:52:06 AM
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The economy and various industries can restart in covid-19 free and confirmed via testing, bubbles!

And shops etc can be operated from behind positively pressurised cubicle/windows that exclude customers. Who will not be able to handle anything they do not purchase. and passed through in a customer service drawer or some such after the checkout.

Money and change sent in UV radiated clear plastic or polycarb tubes in clear plastic containers? Where masked and gloved clerks will serve? Or an EFTPOS machine on the customer side will suffice?

Turnstiles will oblige impatient customers to social distance and understand crowding the customer immediately ahead does not speed anything up!

Drivers of any public transport, also similarly protected in their cubicle! And regularly wiped down from front to back with sanitising wipes between passengers pickups and drops!

Will need an army of already recovered covid-19 immune workers for the cleaning!

Sorry if you see that as demeaning, when it will be the most important work and contribution and the wages ought to reflect that and the importance of acquired immunity!

Other enterprises, that only need to produce, produce or process or harvest produce, can also operate in tested, covid-19 free bubbles.

Providing that very discipline is maintained and confirmed with regular temperate checks and good hygiene/regular hand sanitising, some of which will include mandatory wearing of disposable face masks to protect others from we/us possibly contagious!

Some of the economy and sporting comps, can return to something near normal as in wartime production with inbuilt mandatory, protective rules and regulations, as above!

Take care and stay safe.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Monday, 13 April 2020 11:29:49 AM
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Mr O. right on the money mate and a good observation to compare covid-19 with the 400-year long black plague. Which as you know was transferred to humans from the fleas on rats?

We may never find a vaccine! And will not just need to flatten the curve but squash it flat. And prevent it returning with mandatory quarantining in offshore isolation, that's confirmed with accurate repeat testing.

All conferencing can be done via teleconferencing and education via remote learning becoming the new norm, with rotating immune tutors engaged to help those with special learning needs, adapt! And essential.

Given children, will be just as or more efficient as the plague rats as carriers as will many domestic pets, who will need to be contained most rigorously or permanently isolated in mandatory euthanising pounds.

Let's hope the lessons of history prevail and we do not need to lose two-thirds of the entire population before we act to protect each other! And in so doing, protect ourselves in the best possible way we currently have!

Social rebels could enjoy unlimited unfettered personal freedom on an offshore island far from here?

I believe there is still some inhabitable restorable housing and infrastructure on an abandoned Devil's island?

Or we could supply tents, gardening tools and garden seeds!

A few examples/leaders and the rest would find compliance, as model cooperating citizens, a most desirable pleasure/outcome?

Take care and stay safe.
Alan B.
Posted by Alan B., Monday, 13 April 2020 12:10:51 PM
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Hi Alan

Too bad COVID-19 + Australia's flu season (April to October) might render well-intentioned suggestions wrong.

See http://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-04-10/flu-season-with-coronavirus-could-mean-extended-lockdown-covid19/12136870 of April 10, 2020:

"Leading health experts believe the looming flu season means Australia's tough social-distancing laws will not be lifted for several months, despite the NSW Government considering easing of restrictions in May.

On Wednesday, NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said some restrictions on travel and personal contact would be reassessed every month.

The number of COVID-19 infections has declined, but experts warned lifting the lockdown could spark an influenza outbreak.

Last year in Australia, 812 people died from the flu.

Ian Barr, deputy director of the World Health Organisation's (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza said an influenza outbreak would further strain hospitals.

[or severe COVID + flu cases could overwhelm Australian hospitals ICU beds capacity].

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Monday, 13 April 2020 12:28:02 PM
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If you think it should be my role to come up with a plan to combat the Wuhan pandemic then maybe you could be so stupid enough to give me a brief specifying the outcomes I am required to produce.
Mr Opinion,
No-one's asking you that, what i am suggesting to you is to be more considerate, caring & responsible. That is as much as we can ask of each other. Constant ridicule, constant dismissal of posts, constant criticism & constant opportunism is what you need to refrain from if you're at all inclined to care about others. For that you do not require some worthless BA, just decency & some sense ! Can you please try & exercise that ?
Posted by individual, Monday, 13 April 2020 12:53:41 PM
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Dear Lucifrase;

From your link;

“That is why SBP supports Sweden’s well-considered approach, which is a replica of what we have been long recommending. Sweden isolates its elderly and those with serious pre-conditions. It keeps primary schools open since this virus has virtually no effect on little children, and children are therefore the first to help society acquire herd immunity. Sweden also insists on reasonable social distancing but people are not required to wear masks, which allows the slow and sustained spread of the virus to less vulnerable groups.”

This is the situation yesterday;

“Today, Sweden finds itself in very big trouble. As of April 9, Sweden’s rate per capita of confirmed deaths from coronavirus is higher than the rate of its fellow Scandinavian countries — or the US. Hospitals are overcrowded and staff members are overworked, and the military has begun setting up field hospitals in major cities, including Stockholm. 
The Swedish government is now seeking extraordinary powers to impose further restrictions, as the number of deaths steadily approaches 1000. The move will pave the way for new laws that could lead to nationwide lockdown. Sweden’s social democratic political culture is swinging to the other extreme. The proposed legislation would empower the government to act even without consulting parliament.”
http://indianpunchline.com/flawed-coronavirus-battle-plan-lands-sweden-in-big-trouble-indias-blend-of-risk-aversion-and-practicality-is-the-right-approach
Posted by SteeleRedux, Monday, 13 April 2020 2:03:52 PM
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SR, Sweden has let the dying begin and has been concurrently expanding its health care capability to manage it. The fact it has higher deaths per capita than neighbours has nothing to do with the immeasurable (at this point) mortality rate from infection which should be less than 0.37% as it is the younger, lower risk, cohort involved. Other Scandinavian countries in lockdown, as here, are aiming for no deaths and herd immunity through vaccination rather than infection (our current governmental reverie, shared by Mr O).

I'd expect some vulnerable non-isolates to be in the early Swedish numbers. The onus is on them to isolate from infection or expect to be put aside at triage to fend for themselves wherever a younger person is competing for the same resources. The reaching of herd immunity in Sweden is planned to be achieved without the vulnerable dying.

I have connections to public hospital medicine here who have told me key staff have been briefed on CV19 triage arrangements. We can't handle the truth apparently, so this isn't public knowledge, which I rail against. If you're over 65 and want a 100% survival chance, may I advise maintaining isolation for the next 18 months or so. I'm an employed 64 y.o. asthmatic with serious choices to make, while bearing in mind infection isn't a guaranteed death sentence for anyone.

Sweden will be in trouble only when it can't manage to moderate infection to match its health-care capacity. It may even need periods of major quarantine, such as weekends here or there on top of normal distancing and cleanliness measures, but it should maintain its overall thrust.
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 13 April 2020 3:32:46 PM
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I'm annoyed at the scientific misrepresentation of the supposed failure of the Swedish strategy.

So what if Sweden's per capita death toll is higher now than its locked-down neighbours', who have their own death surges ahead of them after awaiting the coming of a non-existent vaccine. However you peel the onion, the morbidity rate will be the same, or probably less in Sweden as the vulnerable will not come out of quarantine until the immune population grows sufficiently to reach herd immunity.

Posters here sit on the fence over the coming of a vaccine, as 'individual' notes. Sensible policy should not be built on hope and fear. You can't fault the Swedes until they significantly fail to match health-care provision with need, both of which they have control over.

Thank goodness we have a Sweden as a reference point to help us work out, at some future time, what the gold-standard is for response to a pandemic. Those applying inappropriate statistics to scare the public are not a part of that scientific process.
Posted by Luciferase, Monday, 13 April 2020 6:58:57 PM
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There's a lot of nonsense being talked about Sweden. On a per capita basis its death rate compares well with other European and North American countries https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=SWE+USA+GBR+CHE+ITA+ESP+DEU+FRA+CAN+NOR.

It also looks like her curve is flattening and decreasing. https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=ITA+ESP+USA+GBR+CAN+SWE+DEU+NOR

Unlike Australia's flattening, it is likely to be sustained because of how widespread the infection must be.
Posted by GrahamY, Monday, 13 April 2020 8:55:56 PM
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Graham Y,

And when Sweden gets a second wave of the Wuhan virus it can sustain another 10% death rate and a third wave another 10% and ..............................
Posted by Mr Opinion, Monday, 13 April 2020 9:02:38 PM
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The Demographic of Sweden is a powder keg on its own & with a bit of COVID-19 thrown in, the whole show is primed to the max !
Posted by individual, Monday, 13 April 2020 9:03:17 PM
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Dear GrahamY,

Horses for courses if we can old chap. These are the same graphs with the Scandinavian countries selected.

http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=DNK+FIN+NOR+SWE

http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=NOR+SWE+FIN+DNK

The thing is unlike Denmark which has a land border with a high case load country like Germany, Sweden is only bordered by Finland and Norway, both of which have managed very low mortality figures.

They certainly have squandered that advantage.

Hardly the gold standard at this stage.
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 14 April 2020 10:43:53 AM
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Steelie, surely you're intelligent enough to understand that deaths per capita at this stage in proceedings is no better a basis for determining the gold standard than percentage mortality of the infected you tried on earlier?

Of course Sweden will be ahead on deaths per capita in its pursuit of as 'safely' as possible achieving herd immunity, i.e. within the capacity of the health system to cope with cases. Note the downturn in its curve, what do you make of that given its lack of lockdown like its neighbours waiting for the vaccine to come?

The longer we keep thinking we can eliminate this virus with lockdown, tracking and isolation, the sooner we'll be on our way out of this. Isolation worked with the last SARS epidemic, but this is a whole new beast. Here's something out of Iceland on that highlights the pointlessness of the Australian approach so that whenever we take our foot of the virus' throat, or before, it will rear up until herd immunity is reached naturally or a vaccine comes to the rescue, while our economy goes to hell in a handbasket: http://geneticliteracyproject.org/2020/04/13/what-the-rest-of-the-world-can-learn-from-icelands-mass-coronavirus-testing-project/?fbclid=IwAR20TSi-22VQRk97E83VUaonMrwDAOsp_kxl0RXicU1qxcsPI2YpOLYPCLA
Posted by Luciferase, Tuesday, 14 April 2020 2:26:13 PM
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...a correction of the first sentence in the last paragraph. I meant the longer it will take to make our way out, of course.
Posted by Luciferase, Tuesday, 14 April 2020 2:33:52 PM
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Dear GrahamY,

Well it looks like there might be another factor.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/avivahwittenbergcox/2020/04/13/what-do-countries-with-the-best-coronavirus-reponses-have-in-common-women-leaders/#54edba693dec

Denmark, Finland, Norway and Iceland all have female leaders. The only Scandinavian country which doesn't is of course Sweden.
http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=DNK+FIN+NOR+SWE+ISL

Compared to other male lead countries;
http://ourworldindata.org/grapher/total-covid-deaths-per-million?tab=chart&country=DNK+FIN+NOR+SWE+ISL+DEU+FRA+GBR

I wonder how much gender informs the approach taken?
Posted by SteeleRedux, Tuesday, 14 April 2020 2:34:14 PM
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SteeleRedux,
A nicely bandaged injury is vastly different from the festering wound it conceals !
Posted by individual, Wednesday, 15 April 2020 8:28:37 AM
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