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The Forum > Article Comments > Checking sources should be as simple as ABC > Comments

Checking sources should be as simple as ABC : Comments

By Jennifer Marohasy, published 20/2/2018

It would be ridiculous if some of the catastrophic global warming so often reported by experts via our ABC were just a consequence of a new method of recording temperatures!

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Ant,

You keep insisting I provide references/links while providing none yourself.

Go to the link that I first provided for an overview of the extent of sea ice since 1978.

Now you are disputing my suggestion that sea ice was low in 1937.. most published studies done in the Arctic pre 1978, where by the Norwegians. There is a great book 'Arctic animals in relation to climatic fluctuations' by Christian Vibe published in 1967... for example.

I am currently traveling (en-route to Africa), but from memory this book talks about the stagnation phase (1810 to 1860), the pulsation phase (1860 to 1910) and then the melting stage (1910 to 1960) with respect to sea ice.

Remember there is a lot of regional variability and also decadal variability in climate. And that Arctic sea ice is very much affected by temperatures in the north Atlantic.

Also, remember from the Climategate emails the discussion about the 'blip' in temperatures in the late 1930s and early 1940s and how to deal with this in terms of homogenisation and the global mean.

If you look at James Hansen's early reconstructions of global temperatures it was very hot in the late 1930s, but this 'blip' as been adjusted down over the last 3 or so decades.

I hope this helps.

As regards the Inuit, there are so many references to reindeer herding and archeological dig work in that Vibe book, I mentioned above.
Posted by Jennifer, Thursday, 22 February 2018 10:38:51 AM
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Siliggy

There are no arguments about Greenland having been quite warm; the Barnes Ice Shelf on Baffin Island suggests temperatures were regionally variable during the Middle Ages as they are now.
When global warming is discussed it is about temperature gathered from all countries.
A few modern examples:
>over the last few years the East Coast of the US has been extremely cold; whereas, snow fields on the West Coast were struggling due to lack of snow.
>Temperature for Alaska had been warm to the extent of algorhymes being knocked out of kilter in 2017.
>Up until now the Barents Sea has been extremely warm shown by little sea ice being formed.
That does not necessarily mean the whole of the Arctic Ocean has warmed. We will be able to see when official figures for maximum and minimum sea ice extent are provided.

Despite extreme cold in some areas, global temperatures overall have been rated as being high in the 21st Century.
So trying to suggest that because a few area were warm, it does not mean others were during the Middle Ages.
Posted by ant, Thursday, 22 February 2018 11:42:51 AM
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@ ANT @ page 7 In your response to GrahamY, you admitted being wrong in your claim that the latest LNG tanker northern passage unescorted by an icebreaker was a sign of global warming. The reason you did so was that I corrected you in the matter. However, and more importantly, you fail to admit that you were sucked-in again on a fake report of the kind you want to believe. Any rational person would be aware that the general media finds good traffic in scary/bad news rather than the mundane all is OK stuff. The mantra that we’re all gonna die in the great heat to come is notably popular in that industry, and you have exposed your gullibility. Although it is OFF-TOPIC, your gullibility and selective reading is exemplified by your inference that submarine vessels have supported comparatively recent satellite data on Arctic ice. In the general feeding frenzy there have been failed predictions of no ice in summer, but it is forgotten that USS Skate surfaced at the North pole in MARCH 1959, and again along with USS Seadragon in 1962. Then of course there is the famous photo of the USA/UK trio surfaced there in MAY 1987: HMS Superb, USS Billfish and USS Sea Devil. There’s also this nice video of HMS Superb and HMS Turbulent surfaced there in 1988. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yAsEhmBnyE Can you please advise why you believe that the still emerging greatly advanced technologies can be correlated with what was more crudely measurable even ten years ago, let alone back in say the 1930’s and 1940’s for which there is a great deal information logged of low ice levels. Again, although it is OFF-TOPIC, I point out that the same challenges apply to the poorly comparable technologies between old and new as is discussed in Dr Marohasy’s post.
Posted by Bob Fernley-Jones, Thursday, 22 February 2018 1:44:29 PM
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Sorry,

I don't know why, but disappointingly, even though on preview a have separation lines between paragraphs they are all bunched up together on screen this end
Posted by Bob Fernley-Jones, Thursday, 22 February 2018 1:49:51 PM
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Jennifer
Climategate:

In relation to Climate Gate, a number of investigations took place, the scientists were not found guilty of any wrong doing. Those who do not take on the results of investigations can be considered conspiracy theorists. It is not an objective point of view.
An example of an investigation which should be far enough removed from scientists to provide credence in the findings:

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200910/cmselect/cmsctech/387/387i.pdf

Al Gore:

Sea ice extent in 2012 was the lowest ever recorded, it still is a record.
It was wrong to believe that the quickened trend would continue.

Sea ice volume:

Sea ice extent is not as meaningful a measure as volume, that being on the basis that sea ice extent does not take into account the thickness or thinness of sea ice.
http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/

Arctic in 1930s:

Florence Fetterer, from NSIDC, has provided a record of sea ice from 1850 to 2007:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-piecing-together-arctic-sea-ice-history-1850

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/wol1/doi/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2016.12195.x/full

Tamino, provides a dialogue on data from Walsh & Chapman and explains where the data came from.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2011/09/17/more-cherry-ice-from-joe-daleo/

Sea ice extent 2007 compared to 2007:

There is a significant difference between 2007 sea ice extent compared with 2012, per graph:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2012/09/arctic-sea-ice-extent-settles-at-record-seasonal-minimum
Posted by ant, Thursday, 22 February 2018 5:54:35 PM
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Bob Fernley-Jones

I read about submarines taking measure of sea ice some time ago.

But:

"Starting in 1958 U. S. Navy submarines collected upward-looking sonar profiles, for navigation and defense, and converted the information into estimates of ice thickness.[9] Data from U. S. and Royal Navy submarines available from the NSIDC includes maps showing submarine tracks. Data are provided as ice draft profiles and as statistics derived from the profile data. Statistics files include information concerning ice draft characteristics, keels, level ice, leads, undeformed and deformed ice.[10]"

It was not derived from a popular news site.

Another reference:

"Ice draft measurements are collected using the submarine's upward looking sonar. By comparing ice draft data collected by SCICEX with previously published data, scientists established that sea ice thinned significantly within the areas where data were collected between 1958 and 1976 and in the 1990s (Rothrock et al., 2008)."

From:

https://www.arcus.org/witness-the-arctic/2015/2/article/23163

Another reference in relation to sea ice levels prior to satellites.

Bob, are you going to argue against an NSIDC reference

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/icelights/2011/01/arctic-sea-ice-satellites
Posted by ant, Thursday, 22 February 2018 8:10:05 PM
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