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Will the Paris Climate Talks be too little and too late? : Comments
By Fred Pearce, published 14/10/2015'The proof is in the pudding, and the pudding is going to come out of the oven in Paris,' says a U.N. official. In fact, he said, they leave the world on course for at least 3 degrees C of warming.
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There are lies dammed lies and statistics. The biggest problem with statistics is that are plenty of examples of scientists from numerous disciplines getting the interpretation wrong. My nephew makes a living out of checking professional scientists statistical work. I do not claim to have any skill in this area, but I am reasonable sure that the data from all sources can be compounded. For example if the data shows that the horse "winner takes all" only wins once in 33 races and other data shows she only wins 1 in 40 races when drawn in barrier 10 or above, she also only wins 1 in 50 times in the wet. The question is what based on previous stats are her chances of winning from barrier 10 in the rain. According to your interpretation above the answer is 1 in 50. I confident her chances winning are significantly worst than that. All of the data for the last 17 years show surface temperatures and lower atmosphere in the mid point are positive, and while a few few fail to show significant warming greater than the 97% probability level, when all the data is combined together it is a sure bet that warming has continued. I would also point out this only works when you very selective with the numbers you input into the calculator.
In any event we do not need to rely on temperature data, other evidence such as accelerating loss of global ice, rising sea levels, and a lot of other observations all point to the fact the warming is unequivocal.
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/