Hi Bob,

Saudi involvement, etc.: good luck with that. it would be great to actually see the text of that report by the way, not just a ridiculous interpretation of it.

Clearly ISIS has to be defeated, even in co-ordination with Assad and the Russians, if only because there is basically no alternative, no 'third force' to take over after a hypothetical defeat of both ISIS and Assad.

Clearly also, the West should de-list the PKK and the YPG/YPJ as terrorist organisations since they seem to be the most effective force currently fighting ISIS in the north of Syria and Iraq.

Perhaps Russia and the West should divide up the task of defeating the fascists, with Assad and Russia taking on the job in southern and eastern Syria, and the Western coalition focussing on defeating ISIS in Iraq, and co-ordinating with the Kurds.

But nothing's simple in this dog-fight: how will Turkey perceive the heavier involvement of the Russians in Syria ? As well, they will fight tooth and nail to keep the PKK and YPG/YPJ listed as terrorist organisations.

And now that Iraq is sharing intelligence with Iran and Syria - and thereby with the Russians - how will that complicate the picture ?

Can of worms ? Bucket of crabs ? Insert metaphor here: -

Hi Joe
Here's those documents you wanted
http://www.judicialwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Pg.-291-Pgs.-287-293-JW-v-DOD-and-State-14-812-DOD-Release-2015-04-10-final-version11.pdf

Here's a website that highlights some of the important bits
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2015/05/newly-declassified-u-s-government-documents-the-west-supported-the-creation-of-isis.html

You are right it is a can of worms. Maybe the most realistic option is as you suggest, the Russians help their ally Syria and the US helps Iraq. But that presupposes that the US and it's allies stop assisting ISIS and Al Qaeda etc. That presupposes that the US wants peace not chaos. I'm just not so sure about that. But hey what do I know? I'm no intelligence or military expert, just an interested onlooker.

Re Iraq sharing intelligence with Iran and Syria - did you see this story?
US On The Ropes: China To Join Russian Military In Syria While Iraq Strikes Intel Deal With Moscow, Tehran
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-27/us-ropes-china-join-russian-military-syria-while-iraq-strikes-intel-deal-moscow-tehr
Makes for interesting reading.

Thanks Bob, that's a fascinating article about Chinese involvement in the Middle East. With the Taliban seizing Kunduz in northern Afghanistan, and the US pulling out at the end of the year, that puts China in an interesting position vis-à-vis the Taliban, al Qa'ida and IS there. Islamist groups are gaining strength in central Asian countries as well, in the backyards of both Russia and China.

So perhaps the US can only play a secondary role in the Middle East, mainly with the thankless task of trying to keep Sunni and Shi'ite powers apart and to protect Israel.

But both Russia and China may find themselves inheriting the complex mess that seems to have defeated the US. If so, then they both, at a time when their economies are heading south, may find themselves fighting on two fronts, Russia also with Ukraine, and China becoming more enmeshed in central Asia and particularly Afghanistan. And that brings Pakistan somewhat into play, China's erstwhile ally, covertly supporting the Islamists, and allied to the Saudis.

Wouldn't it be nice if it was a simple, clear-cut, either-or, one-on-one dog-fight ? Pity about the complexities of the modern world.

Joe

And it's already clear that the Russians, in their support of Assad, will NOT get stuck into ISIS but will direct all their firepower against the other groups fighting Assad, especially those in the western Shi'ite/Christian/Alawite heartlands. They will leave the much larger battle against ISIS to the Western coalition and the Kurdish militias. And once Assad and the Russians have destroyed all the non-Islamist, oppositional groups, they will turn on the Kurds.

It could be that Assad and his allies will leave the eastern and southern areas to the Sunnis for the time being, always with their eyes on the oil in the north-east. And the Sunnis will keep turning to ISIS unless the Western coalition can find some way to make deals with the Sunni tribal groups, and attempt to build up a more secular, less Islamist, faction there. Yeah, right.

Perhaps the West and the neighbouring Arab countries around Syria and Iraq will attempt to carve out a new country of mainly Sunni groups, encompassing the west of Iraq and the south-east of Syria, an area which would have a population of maybe twenty million: their initial task there would be to find forces to administer it - which would, no doubt, evolve very quickly into a dictatorship of its own. Alternatively, the borders of Jordan and Saudi Arabia could be re-drawn to take in these areas.

But the bottom line is that there would be very little likelihood of anything remotely resembling democracy taking hold in those areas, once ISIS is defeated: in the absence of any unifying power, the entire area, and population, could descend into civil war, before yet another dictator puts his brutal stamp on the area.

Of course, this is assuming that ISIS can somehow be defeated: the Russians won't bother, so that battle may have to be taken up eventually by Iran.

Horrible options all round.

Joe