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The Forum > Article Comments > Hong Kong protests: cruising for a Tiananmen? > Comments

Hong Kong protests: cruising for a Tiananmen? : Comments

By Peter Coates, published 1/10/2014

Direct defiance of Beijing could be fatal for protesters - but they are hoping and expecting that the international media and Hong Kong's special economic status will dissuade the authorities from cracking down too hard.

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Its HUGE!! http://youtu.be/Q0Cs5P7oP80
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 10:50:53 AM
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I just don't think so.
You see Beijing, has to remain cognizant of Taiwan, and their plans to incorporate it into a wider China; and without spilling significant blood or creating bankruptcy/WW111.
All of which would very much jeopardize their positions, or even force the party out of power! (see Russia)
And if they won't or can't live up to the agreements made, when reincorporating Hong Kong, they may find that actually incorporating a WATCHING Taiwan, an impossibility!
And combine that with local unrest, and a productive south, (the rich half) that reportedly wants to (cut the apron strings) break away from mother?
Beijing needs to think beyond the extremely modest wish list of a few protesters.
Who only want to include another candidate, for heavens sake, in upcoming elections!
Beijing would be well served to look at the advise of "flexible" war time president Roosevelt, "always use a velvet glove, but carry a big stick".
Well, China well and truly has a great big stick, and the implacable resolve needed to use it!
But only when and if actually really necessary!
What seems to be missing here is the velvet glove, also needed to keep their own citizens onside, and cooperating!
After all, the art of true statesmanship, is to know when to concede a crumb (another candidate)!
Seriously, is that really too much!?
Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 11:33:40 AM
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Hi Rhrosty

What you say may be true.
Then may be not.
I think Taiwan will be gradually incorporated into China as a Special Economic Zone - with political tightening coming 2 decades later as appears to be happening in HK 1997-2017

More immediately on HK
Protester numbers today will do the talking.
So far a rain storm has slowed down today's build up.

But will the Sun come out and the students arise? Answer me that?

BTW - Only an uncouth stereotyper would put that golden oldie TURNING JAPANESE by The Vapors on this string http://youtu.be/gEmJ-VWPDM4

Cheers

Pete
Posted by plantagenet, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 11:51:26 AM
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One version of the Tianamen square crackdown I heard (I think via some STRATFOR report) was that the commander of the Beijing garrison either refused out right or did a go slow protest on the order to clear the square owing to the fact that he and his staff had considerable business interests in that city. He was relieved of his command and his troops stood down upon the arrival of more "disciplined" troops from another province, apparently there was a big shakeup afterwards where the generals were forced to divest themselves of civilian investments and were given a stake in the defence industry as compensation.
It's kind of hard to get a general to shoot the people to whom he's selling t-shirts and beer under normal circumstances, I wonder where the PLA garrison in Hong Kong stand?
Posted by Jay Of Melbourne, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 3:45:15 PM
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Ah so Pete.
In my humble opinion, the Japanese have a stake in this outcome, as a very interested neighborhood spectator, and very nervous about the Chinese massive military build up.
And no doubt, will be looking for the seeds of material/military advantage in every local event!?
Tienanmen Square being just one of them? Treatment of Tibet another?
I have very different expectations, and based on the old truism, my enemies enemy is also my friend?
Meaning, we could still a needs based military alliance, (united we stand, divided we fall like veritable dominoes) forming between Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and the Philippines, all of who are threatened, in some real or perceived measure, by China's military and territorial expansion!
Yes, Taiwan could eventually be peacefully incorporated into the wealthy southern zone, and in that outcome, strengthen the economy and leadership credentials of the already most prosperous zone.
I see a peaceful prosperous future for China, if she adopts a lose confederation, not entirely dissimilar to the former USSR?
Albeit, with heaps of local autonomy, state parliaments, freedom of the press and expression; (one doesn't ever silence dissent by stifling it) and rule of law that finally includes everyone!
And a motto that could read, "we're not committed communists, criminals or fifth columnists, just cooperative capitalists comrade!
I mean, they have absolutely nothing to fear from adopting the cloak, respectability and mores of a social democracy!
And a badly needed happiness index, that is also part and parcel of already existing examples, and moreover, without changing very much at all!
Cheers Rhrosty.
Posted by Rhrosty, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 4:08:10 PM
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Just who is behind Occupy Central? Among the names frequently mentioned:
Benny Tai: a regular attender at US state Department, National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and its subsidiary the National Democratic Institute (NDI)

Martin Lee: founding chairman of the Democratic Party in Hong Kong. He travelled to the US this year too meet with NED officials.

Jimmy Lai: media mogul and close associate of the notorious neo-con Paul Wolfowitz, one of the main architects of the 'prevent any competitor to the Us arising' strategy.

Audrey Eu Yuet-Mee: Civic Party chairwoman. Another close associate of NED and NDI.

There is also the NED funded Hong Kong Transition Project which has links with Exxon, the British Council, the Rockefeller Fund, and Morgan Stanley among others.

Occupy Central is only one of several movements inside China that the US is running, none of them remotely linked to bringing 'peace and democracy'. Rather, it is part of a very widespread policy of fostering internal dissent and disruption, and "containing" China wherever possible beyond its borders.

Occupy Central may well have legitimate grievances. But just like the Arab Spring those grievances have been co-opted by individuals and organisations who have far less altruistic motives.
Posted by James O'Neill, Wednesday, 1 October 2014 4:25:21 PM
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