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The Forum > Article Comments > The IPCC now says it’s OK to adapt to ‘climate change’ > Comments

The IPCC now says it’s OK to adapt to ‘climate change’ : Comments

By Don Aitkin, published 11/4/2014

It seems to me that the IPCC may well be coming to the view that if it is to survive, it will have to have more than the mitigation arrow in its quiver.

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Over the last hundred years or so sea levels have been rising at about 1.7 mm per year according to the tide gauges. Now around 1993 we started to use satellites to measure sea level rise and surprisingly a rate of 3.4 mm per year was measured. The conclusion was this rate could not be explained by estimating the amount of ice melt plus and the increase due to thermal expansion. Previously it was estimated that of 0.7 mm/yr was due to ice melt and 0.4 mm/yr was due to thermal expansion for a total of 1.1 mm/year. Thus should make it fairly obvious that a figure of 3.2 mm per year was not likely to be maintained at least in the medium term and indeed in 2010-2011 global sea levels actually fell.

The factor that has to be taken into account in the short term is where does the rain fall. During La Nina events much of Australia receives heavy rainfall which is enough to reduce sea level by a several millimeters and conversely during El Nino events sea level rises faster than normal.

Now let us consider if it is possible that the sea level could have been rising at 1.7 mm over previous centuries? the answer is obviously no as it would put most of the ancient ports under 2 or 3 meters of water which is simply not the case. So It is clear that dramatic warming has taken place over the last century.

Ice will continue to melt unless temperatures actually start to fall simply because the high latitudes have warmed by up to 3 degs in many places, and these places can no longer sustain ice over the summer months so we can expect the accumulated ice from previous decades will gradually disappear.
Posted by warmair, Saturday, 19 April 2014 9:58:20 PM
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Thanks JF; I did mean temperature over the ice sheet not on the coast of Greenland but anyway.

Warmair; read my post above about the Ablain and Cazanave papers in respect of sea level rise which is DECELERATING. The study of the Amsterdam sea level record, the longest in the world also shows no acceleration:

http://books.google.com.au/books?id=DcXZF9vogtkC&pg=PA60&lpg=PA60&dq=Amsterdam+sea+level+1.5+mm+year&source=bl&ots=Yhhn5foHpN&sig=rvIIke0luHll2Dl5RBBsd9uxEkk&hl=en&sa=X&ei=yJd6Ua3dFqrpiwLw8IDQBQ&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q=Amsterdam%20sea%20level%201.5%20mm%20year&f=false

Researchers from Southhampton find after a historical comparison that current sea level rise, while high is still within natural parameters:

http://www.southampton.ac.uk/mediacentre/news/2013/dec/13_223.shtml

In Australia, Morner and Parker find no acceleration of sea level rise and official IPCC rates to be exaggerated: see Figure 3:

http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/jaeger/Moerner_Parker_ESAIJ2013.pdf

Morner and Parker confirm Watson and Houston and Dean's papers:

http://www.jcronline.org/doi/pdf/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00141.1

http://www.jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1?prevSearch=[AllField%3A+houston+dean]&searchHistoryKey=&&

Incidentally according to NOAA over 10 years from 1993 to 2003 the sea level rise due to thermal expansion [steric] is 4 mm from a direct measurement and 16 mm from the computer modelling studies of the IPCC reports.

Like every other aspect of AGW warmy, sea level rise is riven with contradictions and exaggeration.
Posted by cohenite, Sunday, 20 April 2014 9:34:13 AM
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here wego again
OH FOR FREAKS SAKE
im watching some program..[the tipping points]
they talk of brown smoke..[that is heating the atmosphere
but cooling the oceons..[as usualy the greenies trick the data]

but lets move on/this brown smog/cloud whatever
is caused by cooking fires..so they have invented a super efficient 'stove'..that looks like its made from a 4 gallen coffie can..they could make cheaper than a bucket[say 4 buCKS..TOPS]..TO MAKE IN INDIA

..BUT WAIT.. its raising money for this poor lady unable to buy a 5 dollar stove..[how you may ask]..well the tin can is hooked up to a phone

YEAH THATS RIGHT THESE POOR FOLKS CANY BUT A 45 DOLLAR STOVE
SO WE SELL THEM A 50 DOLLAR?..PHONE..BUT WAIT..IT GETS BETTER
THE PHONE GOES INTO THE TIN CAN..sorry cook stove..via a sensor
that hooks up to the phone/that hooks uP TO?,,SAY A SOLAR CELL

THAT HOOKS INTO THE PHONE SYSTEM/VIA THE CELTOWER..TO GO TO USA
SO THEY CAN SELL THE HEAT CREATED BY BURNING DUNG IN THE POT..INSTEAD OF THE OLD OVEN

NOW BY TONIES DIRECT ACTION..we could give them a billion stoves
at 5 BUCKS A STOve..and buy more carbon abatement/wholesale/than 500 moblie phones ringing home

but it was so STUPID..i just had to note it
5 billion tony..we build the stoves gift em to india
run the numbers buying mobile phones with carbon credits/mate thats insane

ps the solar charger..could be making methane stoves
but see how these eletes waste the crapp..out of our hard earned carbon debt.

direct action
or nuthin

hangem high/6 million can return normality to india
forget carbon credits[ps also im noting the highest cause of death is lung cancer/[from woodsmoke]]..stop the woodsnoke..and the cancer rate drops/then the mongels will say the drop in luncg cacer was cause of the stop smoking sin taX AND THE PHOTOES OF DEAD PEOPLE WE MUST SUFFER THROUGH BECAUSE OF THE SAME CARBON NATZIES THAT SOMEHOW MADE COOKING AN ONLINE CASH COW
Posted by one under god, Sunday, 20 April 2014 9:37:14 PM
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http://www.eike-klima-energie.eu/fileadmin/user_upload/jaeger/Moerner_Parker_ESAIJ2013.pdf
I have to say one of the funnest links I have seen in good while.
I am sure the good people of Freemantel will be intrigued to hear that they are sinking at a rate of 1.4 mm per year LOL.
Anyway although it is not really necessary here is a link that details some of the problems with the the Moerner-Parker paper.
http://tamino.wordpress.com/2013/08/09/a-mournful-application-of-care-and-skill/
Posted by warmair, Sunday, 20 April 2014 9:52:44 PM
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one under god,
Sir Richard Branson comes to mind on reading your account above. He has a system similar to the phone in the can in India. With Sir Richard you buy a ticket and sit inside one of his Virgin containers with your phone turned off. Then you can even fly to America with no concern for carbon, as long as you have been sucked into the AGW trading scheme and have paid for 'emissions' when buying your ticket online. I wonder who gets all that money.
Posted by JF Aus, Monday, 21 April 2014 2:08:28 AM
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cohenite, an interesting article about how Taylor through Goddard was critical of NOAA

http://deepclimate.org/2012/06/21/heartlands-james-taylor-hits-new-low-with-defamatory-false-accusations-against-noaa/#comments

But Goddard did obtain a graph from IPCC FAR 1990, my apologies.

http://nsidc.org/cryosphere/sotc/sea_ice.html

Measuring the volume and mass of ice in the past has been very difficult until satellites were used in 1979.
Sea ice levels were meant to be low in the 1920s and 40s, there were no mechanisms to measure the extent or volume of ice; but the levels were not as low as 2012.
In 1979 there was perennial ice, by 2012 that ice had been lost; the mass and volume of ice had changed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2nruCRcbnY0

Copy and past.

An interesting Blog in relation to Heartlands ( representing mining interests)they are wishing to change the curriculum in American schools.

http://profmandia.wordpress.com/2012/02/16/heartland-institute-hey-kids-have-a-smoke-and-denial/
Posted by ant, Monday, 21 April 2014 11:15:15 AM
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