Squeers

I'm going to have great fun at Christmas when I use my heater to cool things down and larconically claim to an astonished family and friends

'The science is settled. Warming causes cooling.'

They should try it.

Has anyone noticed that after years of deployment, we heard nothing of the finding of the Argo buoys.

These are the 3000 buoys, deployed at great expense to automatically "take the oceans temperature" to considerable depth.

The first temperatures were much lower than expected by the AGW mob.

It really is telling to find the next news, some years later is about the "CORRECTION" the AGW mob are going to apply to the temperatures reported, as they says the oceans are cooling. Not the result our illustrious scientists want at all.

In fact, with out "corrections" there is sweet #### all increase in temperature.

Do you really think the raw temperature data were lost by accident & it is an accident that only the "corrected" cheat sheet remains? If so you must be just a little dim.

bonmot writes (various posts) -
1. "Can we blame global warming for the recent cold spell? We just don’t know, yet".

Well said bonmot.

2. "One thing is certain though, as you put more energy into a system, it heats up. The more it heats up, the more water vapour".

Yes true, but not quite well said. It is better said, potentially more water vapour. And a further thing to mention is that, increase temperature, increase pressure - in a closed system. But the atmosphere is not a closed system. It is free to expand and so - increase energy, increase temperature, increase volume (through expansion), which decreases temperature. This is a zero sum argument. Why is this overlooked?

3. "The more water vapour, the more rain and snow - just ask the insurance companies".

Definitely true. So why do AGW proponents prophesies eternal drought and scorched Earth?

4. "We are emitting billions of tonnes of a heat trapping gas into the Earth’s atmosphere..."

Yes true, but put into perspective it's very little, being only (pessimistic) 0.025% of 0.4% of the entire atmosphere per annum. It pales into insignificance.

5. "We know it’s getting warmer because we can measure very well the energy coming in, going out, and what humanity adds - from all known sources".

Eloquently replied to by Fester, who wrote - "Well, we dont know that because there is no system to measure it accurately", and continues with, "So there is a substantial amount that must be guessed at".

Correct! Fester explains it well. There is much involved that is guess work. Which points out that there are so many variables in this matter, only a fool would suggest that this "science is settled".

The simple equation given by bonmot, (energy in) - (energy out) = AGW, is very unsatisfactory. There are just simply far too many other factors at work, such as variations of geothermal emissions, something very much not understood, which no one ever seems to consider.

voxUnius

I know little about geothermal emmissions but what I do know is that they are likely to increase rainfall.

For rain to fall the water vapour in the air must condensate onto something. Usually it is dust or salt particles. Volcanic ash would add to the amount of particles in the air enabling condensation and rain to fall.

Sea level is measured, not modeled, and is rising at a rate 20 times greater than the average for the two millennia prior to the industrial revolution. If you dont dispute that sea level is rising, how else can the rise be explained other than a result of warming? The Argo project was suggesting a cooling trend, which was in conflict with rising sea level. This resulted in the discovery of a measurement error that was corrected.

http://floats.pmel.noaa.gov/dmqc/sensor_response_ex.html

All the more reason to regard sea level as the most reliable indicator of climate change.

Fester
When I said “We know it’s getting warmer because we can measure very well the energy coming in, going out, and what humanity adds – from all known sources.” - You responded with:

>> Well, we don’t know that because there is no system to measure it accurately ... But a rising sea level is a good proxy vote for a warming Earth. <<

I understand why you want to focus on oceans (more on that below) but I was referring to short wave energy coming into the Earth System through the TOA (top of atmosphere) and long wave energy going out.

Yes, we can measure that very well. There is a multitude of ways this is being done, not least the array of satellites orbiting the Earth in every which way. A collaborative effort by numerous countries and scientific organisations around the globe has resulted in very accurate results: There is an energy imbalance.

An energy imbalance leads to a change in temperature – obeying the first law of thermodynamics.

Oceans are a sub-set of the Earth System. You say “a rising sea level is a good proxy vote for a warming Earth.”

Yes, this is true. However, you have to understand that rising sea levels due to global warming (which you correctly identify) is delayed because of slow (albeit undeniable) thermal inertia.

In other words, there is a lag – a long mixing time for heat in the deep ocean can lead to centuries of sea level rise because of thermal expansion.
Corollary: If the Earth is cooling (it isn’t) you would not observe sea level fall for a very long time, either.

We haven’t got time to wait around and fiddle with our thumbs. It’s inane debating or delaying the timetable for action - the globe is "squealing". Besides, adaptation and mitigation will take decades to implement.