Right on about Italy and the Euro. Bloody mess.

A war on Indian soil? Probably not. I prophesise Pakistan will crumble and there will be reunification. A big call on my part.

Any tips for The Melbourne Cup?

We live on a finite planet under considerable stress from about 7 billion people, the majority of whom would like a lifestyle similar to that enjoyed by the top-dog few million.
Human numbers are increasing at about 1.1 per cent, and the economic system which embraces them ever-hopes for economic growth to persist at about 4 per cent preferred.
Food, water, and social expectations are already under considerable stress in many parts of the globe.
Anyone trying to tell us what, specifically (other than tough times), is around the corner on this non-expanding earth needs counseling.

Since you are talking about a decade I guess in that timeframe all ten predictions will become irrelevant once the world really starts to feel the impact of peak oil. Be it next year or in 5 years.

Good call, Cheryl.

>>Any tips for The Melbourne Cup?<<

I suspect it'd be just as reliable.

These aren't predictions. They are pub-level pontifications, presented as thoughtful analysis.

In ten years time it might be be good for a chuckle or two. But only if anyone is bored enough to file a copy.

Oh predictions for the future are not that difficult.

We'll add nearly another billion people to the planet's population.
They'll keep screaming about feeding the poor, yet keep doing little
about family planning for them.
We'll keep stealing land and other resources from other species,
to keep the wheels on the "more humans at any cost" cart.
Oil will keep rising in price, so food will keep rising in price.
There will be droughts, floods, hurricanes and earthquakes.
There will be ongoing tension in the Middle East.
There will be an economic crisis.
China will suffer from a bubble popping.
The American tech bubble that is now forming, will pop.
Queen Lizzie 2 might not make it for another 10 years, or only just.

All quite straight forward really.

I think all these forecasts are plausible. I’d be surprised if at least half of them did not turn out to be correct.

So far as another Arab-Israeli war is concerned there are two possible outcomes:

--The Israelis win; OR

--You guys join me on bicycles because after the Israelis have nuked 30% of the world’s oil pumping capacity you will not be able to afford petrol.

We’ve never seen a nuclear armed state facing extinction before. Wonder how it’ll play out.

Of one thing I’m certain. In one way or another the minerals boom will end.

Thankfully God is still on His throne and biblical prophecy is and always will be the most accurate. Exciting times for those who have not only read the end of the book but joined the winning side.

"Thankfully God is still on His throne"...lol...YEAH:) and when he"s finished runner, can you ask him to only half flush..... we're short on water too:)

Here is my predictions.......ready:)

1..Climate change sceptic"s will be the same at 2021 as they are now...with No clue of reality.

2..With the UK and the US at its knee's, others will change who owns power of the all.

3.. Carbon tax credits will be traded for a better future and more time will be granted for the human race.

4..Human populations wont change, and hard times will come of it.

5..The damage done so far to the planets systems, will take 1000"s of years for the balance to be restored and half of what you see now, is nothing to what is coming.

6..One more religious war will come to past, and all else shall rise from the ashes, but not the holy man.

7..Woman will take control of their fertility, and the meek shall walk again with nature, as it was intended.

8..The labour party will hailed as heroes, lead by the Greens/Bob Brown and the secularist government will bring new freedom for the people, thats been long over-due.

9..Full environmental funding for all life supports systems that are currently under threat.

10..Australia will stop any-more boat-people from coming, and keep Australian JOBS for only Australians.

Now! None of this will ever happen, because the human race is already a run-way train, and trust me:) they dont know how to stop it.

The bottom line is.....We humans will eat this planet alive!...WHY you say..... Because your all that stupid:)

mmmmmm *millions and millions of more people are going to come, and you were all fore warned*

Have a nice day......:)

LEAP

One forecast with at least an outside chance of proving correct in the coming decade must be a nuclear war between Pakistan and India.

This from the Economist, 19 May 2011

http://www.economist.com/node/18712274

>>…Then consider how Pakistan is rapidly expanding its arsenal of nuclear weapons. …

Pakistan may now have between 70 and 120 usable nuclear devices—and may be unusually ready to use them. Some in the West believe Pakistan started preparing nuclear-tipped missiles in the midst of the 1999 Kargil war against India, after Pakistan invaded a remote corner of Kashmir.

…[Pakistan] is rapidly expanding its nuclear infrastructure with Chinese help. And with production long-established, the price of adding weapons has fallen to almost nothing. A nuclear physicist in Pakistan, Pervez Hoodbhoy, now suggests that “you can have a working nuke for about $10m, or the cost of a nice big house in Islamabad.”

[…]

…India has long held a position of “no first use” of nukes. Pakistan, by contrast, with weaker conventional forces, refuses to rule out the option of starting a nuclear war against India, and is now taking steps that could make such first use more likely. Last month it test-fired a new missile, the Hatf IX, with a range of just 60km and specifically designed for war-fighting. …

[…]

But tactical nuclear weapons deployed close to the battlefield pose new risks. Command-and-control protocols are likely to be looser and more delegated. If field officers retreating in the face of a conventional attack by India were forced to decide between using or losing their nuclear weapons, a border incursion could swiftly escalate into something very much bigger and more lethal.>>

Note that Pakistan has used Jihadis to attack India in Kashmir. Would they ever arm them with tac nukes?

The government probably wouldn’t but does the government have sufficient control over the army and intelligence services? If the Economist is to be believed, probably not.

Two things:

1) read Dan Gardner's 'Future babble' and rest comfortably in the certainty that these predictions will most likely prove false;

2) as per the rules of my personal drinking game, I currently owe myself four whiskey shots - one for each poster who shoehorns some neo-Malthusian prediction of calamity into the topic. Sadly, no-one has used the terms 'cancer' or 'plague' yet, so I'm stuck on single shots. Luckily, no-one has (erroneously) dragged in the second law of Thermodynamics, so I don't have to drop my pants and run around the room.

*so I don't have to drop my pants and run around the room.*

Clownfish, whatever gets you through the night is ok :)

Whats the matter clonefish, not seeing the world so good lately? Well, I'll just sit back in my ivory tower and let the games begin:)

HEY! lets just give everyone unclear weapons, that way the world will be safe, like Japan and its fool-proof reactor idea on or near active fault lines:) and lets give all 2 and 3 world peoples the schematics, and technophobia wont be a concern for anyone in first place:)

I think I"ll have that shot now:)

LEA

I predict that as it is mostly Labor types who are drawn to Malcolm Turnbull, [& why not as he is actually a taller clone of Rudd], he will leave the liberal party, perhaps off the toe of someones boot.

He will not only join the Labor party, but become it's leader, & spend most of a term as Labor opposition leader, before even they wake up to him, & send him packing.

After a decade of ever cooling temperature we will have a new clutch of so called climate scientists rushing into print with the new ice age forecasts. Some of the public will even believe them.

The Greens will call for a stop of the usage of all fossil fuels, as the increasing level of CO2 is causing all this cooling.

I will give up my high performance sports cars, & buy a mobility scooter

Hasbeen, I dont often say much to you, and its for very good reasons:)

LEA

In the interests of research, may I introduce the word 'Hitler', so Clownfish can tell us what happens now?

Godwin's Law is so 2000.

Sure, but I was hoping that it might have some interesting consequence in your personal drinking game, which itself is very twentieth century.

Nah, Malthusians are so much more predictable. On any given OLO post, I'm guaranteed to be half shickered after the first 10 or 20 comments.

It's the only way to cope with the horror of these creepy ads.

Clownfish...lol, Dont tell me your brain has substantially failed:) But if your look for the bite you need, well there you go:)....knock yourself out.
:)

Your pretty sad when you don't enjoy yourself here:)

Come on Clonefish, what are your predictions?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19b0A7sBR4U

Two hours.......isn't that a long listen, and what do think has changed? and in your words please:)

Come on now:) Iam assuming your Australian:)

LEA

Clownfish...lol, Dont tell me your brain has substantially failed:) But if your looking for the bite you need, well there you go:)....knock yourself out.
:)

Your pretty sad when you don't enjoy yourself here:)

Come on Clonefish, what are your predictions?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19b0A7sBR4U

Two hours.......isn't that a long listen, and what do think has changed? and in your words please:)

Come on now:) Iam assuming your Australian:)

LEA

Any prediction I made would have as much chance of bearing fruit as that of any expert. In fact, it is statistically true to say that a chimpanzee sticking pins on a dartboard would be as accurate at making predictions as any expert.

One might discuss possibilities, maybe even probabilities, but only highly educated fools and ideologues make predictions.

Hmm, ten years from now ? Anyone seriously believe the masses will be smarter ?

The mathematical probabilities of human nature, is not a bad bet Clownfish, and the world is far from being short of highly educated fools and ideologues making predictions. In-fact the odds on you making one that co-insides with an event tomorrow, are highly likely. You know, the one thing I've found with human beings Clownfish, is that they are very predictable indeed, and you can almost see the wheels turning as time, evolution, and the human-condition etc, all make there mark on our history, and the same men that lived thousands of years ago, are still here today.

Peace.

LEA

all make there mark on our history.
Quantumleap,
I assume you mean all leave their mark on history. Anyhow, you're right that the parallel characters of those long gone keep popping up regularly. My assumption is that as long as humans are influenced by superstition they will continue to impair progress. Religion having been a culprit through the ages & these days fanaticism accepting instructions without any form of intelligent assessment are the new religion. Just look up the dictionary under Public Servant. It says "A government official following orders without intelligent judgement". There you have it. Everything about mankind is mass f(o)ollowing for the benefit of a handful of megalomaniacs.

Indy.

Yes, and some of today's leaders do have the mentality of a gang of monkeys furiously typing Shakespeare in reversibly circles, while trying to consolidate the workings of the new worlds in order to strengthen or improve one's control over (a situation, force, newly captured area, etc.)being technologies given to those, that should not have.

"Religion having been a culprit through the ages & these days fanaticism accepting instructions without any form of intelligent assessment are the new religion."

The old instruction books has No relevants for to days demands of the achievements made by time......now IMO...its going to work against animality/humanity and since the good books people are following, predictions are freely to come, to whats in the pages, and its translating gibberish can only be a mindset mess.

Funny thats what we are seeing, isn't it.

The older religions all have there deep seeded hatreds for one-another
and religion as we know, has the blood of man written/soaked in its pages as the man-animal marks its territorials in the name of what ever the ape thinks of.

If a new religion is being designed by others, and its one of opposites to the now, these new thinkings can only save us.
However Indy, if simpler men were not given the true direction of future, and alpha males are not presently accountable for being clouded by older thoughts, then panic quickly spreads, and as history tell us quite clearly, how situations can become the death of the many.

So predictions by men/or prophets makers have made the roads of mans progressive thoughts, and while mankind's being led by older texts, no good will come of it.

As soon as just one monkey throws a tantrum, hitting the red button will be hard to resist.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FdPqU4KCdZY&feature=related

lea

Here is one prediction I feel I can safely make: experts will continue to make assured predictions regarding the future, they will continue to be spectacularly wrong, and the gaping rubes in the front benches will continue to gasp in amazement at their alleged perspicacity.

"And the gaping rubes in the front benches"......well you know that better than any.

lea

This article hits close to home for me: I work for a senior secondary college, managing their Learning Management System (LMS) and producing digital content.

I agree with most of this article. Certainly, e-learning is an appalling medium for delivering liberal arts content. Jakob Nielsen has basically shown quantitatively what those of us who have worked with the web have always said: People just don't like to read on screen.

There is a case, though, for e-learning to be a part (but only one part) of delivering content for other types of learning. In my particular case, that's Vocational learning.

I've been building the LMS more-or-less from the ground up, and the big frustration I have faced is that curriculum developers just don't want to acknowledge the limitations that e-learning imposes. Too often they seem to think that they can just take their paper-based (and all too often, too wordy and education-theory-burdened) lessons, and cut-and-paste them from Word to a web-based LMS.

The result is lengthy, verbose and confusing, and the students hate it.

The key to successful e-learning - in those areas where e-learning is appropriate in the first place - is, in the succinct appraisal of a colleague at a tertiary institution, "videos and games".

It all comes back to what I used to constantly refer to in my days in web development: Appropriate technology.
Posted by Clownfish, Wednesday, 22 October 2008 1:24:54 PM

Question, and I know its off topic, but....what is Appropriate Technologies? Do you think this conversation reflects on something we shouldn't predict, or are times changing to where the videos or all in what is certifiably mad, as in unclear weapons is concerned with developing structures.....or should we just forget all currant thoughts about safety and just say.....she'll be right mate?

LEA

Well, Quantumleap, I'll give you points for tenacity. Digging back three years through comments is ... well, something. 'Stalking' comes to mind, but let's be kind and call it 'research'. ;)

My main question is: what's the point?

'Appropriate technologies' is exactly that: technology that's appropriate to the task at hand. The old urban myth about pens and pencils on spacecraft comes to mind.

Or, to use another example, you don't bring a knife to a gunfight.

LOL..'Stalking' Dont flatter yourself Clownfish:) No self respecting stalker would have a bar of you;)

So! just one prediction? I"ll bet you have fallout shelter too....well it may not be such a bad investment Mr fish, if North Korea and its friends get irritable and I know you know we live in interesting times to say the least.

Thankyou for your time.

Its been most entertaining indeed:)

LEA

You are an odd duck, aren't you? 0_o

"You are an odd duck, aren't you?" compared to what? Odd is a way of say, I dont understand you, and since our entities are completely different, one not knowing you may say the same thing....but its nice to know that you have the higher moral grounds to say so:)

LEA