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The Forum > Article Comments > June 2021: ten predictions for the coming decade > Comments

June 2021: ten predictions for the coming decade : Comments

By Sam Vaknin, published 26/5/2011

Russia to become properly democratic; a Chinese depression; cloud computing in cloud cuckoo land? Ten years will tell.

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Right on about Italy and the Euro. Bloody mess.

A war on Indian soil? Probably not. I prophesise Pakistan will crumble and there will be reunification. A big call on my part.

Any tips for The Melbourne Cup?
Posted by Cheryl, Thursday, 26 May 2011 10:56:41 AM
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We live on a finite planet under considerable stress from about 7 billion people, the majority of whom would like a lifestyle similar to that enjoyed by the top-dog few million.
Human numbers are increasing at about 1.1 per cent, and the economic system which embraces them ever-hopes for economic growth to persist at about 4 per cent preferred.
Food, water, and social expectations are already under considerable stress in many parts of the globe.
Anyone trying to tell us what, specifically (other than tough times), is around the corner on this non-expanding earth needs counseling.
Posted by colinsett, Thursday, 26 May 2011 12:48:07 PM
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Since you are talking about a decade I guess in that timeframe all ten predictions will become irrelevant once the world really starts to feel the impact of peak oil. Be it next year or in 5 years.
Posted by renysol, Thursday, 26 May 2011 12:52:27 PM
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Good call, Cheryl.

>>Any tips for The Melbourne Cup?<<

I suspect it'd be just as reliable.

These aren't predictions. They are pub-level pontifications, presented as thoughtful analysis.

In ten years time it might be be good for a chuckle or two. But only if anyone is bored enough to file a copy.
Posted by Pericles, Thursday, 26 May 2011 2:20:41 PM
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Oh predictions for the future are not that difficult.

We'll add nearly another billion people to the planet's population.
They'll keep screaming about feeding the poor, yet keep doing little
about family planning for them.
We'll keep stealing land and other resources from other species,
to keep the wheels on the "more humans at any cost" cart.
Oil will keep rising in price, so food will keep rising in price.
There will be droughts, floods, hurricanes and earthquakes.
There will be ongoing tension in the Middle East.
There will be an economic crisis.
China will suffer from a bubble popping.
The American tech bubble that is now forming, will pop.
Queen Lizzie 2 might not make it for another 10 years, or only just.

All quite straight forward really.
Posted by Yabby, Thursday, 26 May 2011 2:28:32 PM
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I think all these forecasts are plausible. Id be surprised if at least half of them did not turn out to be correct.

So far as another Arab-Israeli war is concerned there are two possible outcomes:

--The Israelis win; OR

--You guys join me on bicycles because after the Israelis have nuked 30% of the worlds oil pumping capacity you will not be able to afford petrol.

Weve never seen a nuclear armed state facing extinction before. Wonder how itll play out.

Of one thing Im certain. In one way or another the minerals boom will end.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Thursday, 26 May 2011 3:10:19 PM
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