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The Forum > Article Comments > It’s a race to failure between rogue states and global oil output > Comments

It’s a race to failure between rogue states and global oil output : Comments

By Matthew Wild, published 30/7/2010

Oil reserves are now low enough that domestic turmoil at any of the major oil producers will have unfortunate results.

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"…An item in Forbes earlier in the month, “Saudi Arabia's House Of Cards”, peels back the veneer. It cites an open letter to Saudi royals allegedly written by dissident prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, a prominent exile in Cairo. In this the prince supposedly states the government is no longer able to contain grassroots discontent, and that his fellow royals would be advised to flee before the masses "cut off our heads in streets".

We can but hope.

The sooner oil reaches $200+ / barrel the sooner we'll get serious about alternative transport fuels. Short term pain will bring on long term gain.

Bring it on.

In the mean time learn to ride a bicycle. It's a great way of commuting and would be even better if nobody could afford to drive to work. ;-)
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Friday, 30 July 2010 9:27:20 AM
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Good article Matthew.

<< Dwindling global oil supplies are leaving the world ever more reliant on a group of unstable countries - many of which are themselves facing major domestic problems right now. >>

<< It’s a race to failure. But, then, that’s the reality of betting everything on a non-renewable source. >>

Wow!

The most URGENT thing that we should be doing in Australia is weaning ourselves off of oil or at least of off our utter dependency on the stuff.

Our dependency on it…. not only on the supply, but on the price remaining low enough as to not cripple our economy and society…. should be the NUMBER ONE issue in this election.

But….yep….it is not even an issue AT ALL!! ( :> |

I’ve made a few other comments on this subject already this morning:
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=3836
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10747#178342
Posted by Ludwig, Friday, 30 July 2010 9:53:48 AM
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Decline in non-OPEC oil??

Nope, sorry, the author has to justify that one. As far as I know it simply isn't right. the recent history of oil has shown a gradual decline in OPEC oil's share of the market - a shift that's occured because OPEC has not bothered to invest in oil production facilities or search for oil as they should have. OPEC is quite happy with that situation, incidentally.
However, the author is right that as OPEC's production has tailed off (albeit not through any shortage but through failure to invest) any disruption may well cause price spikes. This is thought to have happened in 2008 price spike, although no-one is quite sure.
Price increases should bring unconventional oil on line and hurry production of the more expensive pre-salt oil but that will take time.. in themean time there may well be production.
Posted by Curmudgeon, Friday, 30 July 2010 11:13:34 AM
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As fossil fuels dwindle, then it will become profitable to use other forms of fuels currently too expensive, like say grassoline.

It would be a good reason to reclaim deserts and other areas currently less than hospitable.

When I see articles like this I always wonder why they don't look at other options.

During WWII, gasoline was in short supply, people used other forms of fuel for vehicles.

We'll adapt .. that's where money should be spent.

On bicycles .. nice idea but impractical when it rains, or you have to go to a meeting in your suit, or carry tools or a million other reasons - not everyone has a job where you can show up in cycling gear, have a shower, get changed then do a day's work and reverse the process. What are builders going to do, couriers, mother's with children. Countries that used bicycles, get off them as fast as they can, no one except those who seriously pursue it want that lifestyle, the rest of us tolerate them as the price we pay for a civilized country.
Posted by Amicus, Friday, 30 July 2010 2:26:31 PM
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Amicus,

I was being a bit jocular. I do realise that not everybody can commute by bicycle. That being said, more and more of us are rain or shine. I think more would if there were more dedicated cycle tracks.

Obviously part of the answer to the coming oil crunch must be better planned cities with MUCH better public transport.

In the mean time I am looking forward to the spectacle of the Saudi royals having their heads cut off. On the whole I am not in favour of capital punishment and would not execute anyone myself. However if the Islamists in Saudi Arabia feel Allah has called them to behead the Saudi royals who am I to contradict them.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Friday, 30 July 2010 6:03:15 PM
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Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabis as the No 1 oil producer.Russia has the technology to reach really deep oil.Abiotic oil not created by organisms ie not fossil fuels,but processes deep within the earth that are enormous in reserve potential.This is what the Gulf disaster was all about.

Peak oil could well be a lie,to keep prices high at the bowser and line the pockets of a few.
Posted by Arjay, Friday, 30 July 2010 8:21:19 PM
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