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The Forum > Article Comments > It’s a race to failure between rogue states and global oil output > Comments

It’s a race to failure between rogue states and global oil output : Comments

By Matthew Wild, published 30/7/2010

Oil reserves are now low enough that domestic turmoil at any of the major oil producers will have unfortunate results.

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The author of the article went on about economising the usage of energy.
I suggest thinking about Jeavon's paradox;
Saving energy use results in more being used as it has now released money.

Algae is a problem. One study showed the ponds need to supply Europe
would need to be about the size of Ireland.

I find it hard to believe that more energy is used by public transport.
Off peak times I could agree but if the public had to use it the
patronage would be so high that it must be more efficient.
This would apply to electric transport especially. Use trolley buses
instead of diesel or natural gas buses.

Non Opec oil has been virtually steady since 2004, just a small rise of
about 500,000 barrels a day.
At present non Opec crude oil is 42.5 Mb/d and all liquids about 50 Mbd.
We are still on the plateau where we have been since May 2005.
China and India's demand is rising so our demand must decrease.
A good thing it would be too, ad our yearly oil bill will reach
A$30,000,000,000 before too long and while the government is borrowing
$100,000,000 a day it just cannot continue.
The government may get the budget into the black in three years but
the debt will continue to increase from its present level of about A$2.4 Trillion.
Right now we cannot afford to drive our cars.
Posted by Bazz, Monday, 2 August 2010 4:10:31 PM
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Bazz wrote:

"Algae is a problem. One study showed the ponds need to supply Europe
would need to be about the size of Ireland."

Why is that an obstacle? It takes a much larger area of agricultural land to feed Europe.

Ireland has a surface area of about 70,000 square km.

If you add together the land area of Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain the UK as well as Ireland itself and a few smaller European countries you have a surface area of around 2.3 million square km. Setting aside 3% of that for fuel production does not seem unreasonable.

Many of the ponds might be in sunny Spain who, given their current economic difficulties, might welcome the opportunity to become the Saudi Arabia of algal fuel.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Monday, 2 August 2010 5:18:36 PM
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Steven, setting aside even 3% might be a problem as it would mean
taking it out of food production or out of forests.
It could be done I suppose. Would the area be in continuous production
or would it have to be shut down and the process restarted ?
If so a larger area might be needed.
Would it be more practical to have an enclosed process like a chemical
plant, but then how do you get light to it ?
Posted by Bazz, Tuesday, 3 August 2010 8:57:10 AM
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Bazz

European agricultural land covers about 1 million square km. So even if you took all the land out of currently used agricultural land it would amount to 7%.

Europe agricultural surplus is greater, by far, than 7%.

In practice much of the algal growth would occur on land not suitable for agriculture.

Multi-story farming - not just for algae - may be an option.

See:

http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/2007/06/20/104517/Multi-storey-glasshouses-the-future-of-farming.htm

An enclosed chemical process would probably defeat the purpose. As you point out, how would you get the sunlight in.
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Tuesday, 3 August 2010 8:24:56 PM
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Steven,
Yes as the article says, a theoretic construct.
The physical construction seems to be a problem with the shadow of the
storey above. The building would have to step back on each level as in
the summer the sun would be nearly overhead in most parts of the world.
The rest of the building under the step backs could be used for
residences, offices or warehouses.

Still, I can't see it being in time.
Typically, I wrote to my pollie asking what is the opposition going to
do about energy depletion and specifically peak oil and I got an
answer all about global warming and CO2 reduction !

The attitude of politicians is right for the generation of the
conspiracy theory to end all conspiracy theories.
Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 4 August 2010 10:38:47 AM
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Bazz

You expected a sensible answer about a complex question from a politician! I am afraid I shall have to downgrade my estimate of your IQ by 50 points.

On a more serious note. Even single story indoor farms could result in doubling yield.

Except over the equator the sun is never directly overhead. Therefore thin buildings facing the direction of the sun could intercept a lot of sunlight.

The bigger problem is not the storey above but the shadow of the adjacent building. Vertical farms in the southern hemisphere would have to form a phalanx on the northern edge of the city.

Or they could be outside the actual city.

Will it happen? I think so. But not necessarily in the next decade or so
Posted by stevenlmeyer, Thursday, 5 August 2010 8:09:47 AM
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