"…An item in Forbes earlier in the month, “Saudi Arabia's House Of Cards”, peels back the veneer. It cites an open letter to Saudi royals allegedly written by dissident prince Turki bin Abdul Aziz Al Saud, a prominent exile in Cairo. In this the prince supposedly states the government is no longer able to contain grassroots discontent, and that his fellow royals would be advised to flee before the masses "cut off our heads in streets".

We can but hope.

The sooner oil reaches $200+ / barrel the sooner we'll get serious about alternative transport fuels. Short term pain will bring on long term gain.

Bring it on.

In the mean time learn to ride a bicycle. It's a great way of commuting and would be even better if nobody could afford to drive to work. ;-)

Good article Matthew.

<< Dwindling global oil supplies are leaving the world ever more reliant on a group of unstable countries - many of which are themselves facing major domestic problems right now. >>

<< It’s a race to failure. But, then, that’s the reality of betting everything on a non-renewable source. >>

Wow!

The most URGENT thing that we should be doing in Australia is weaning ourselves off of oil or at least of off our utter dependency on the stuff.

Our dependency on it…. not only on the supply, but on the price remaining low enough as to not cripple our economy and society…. should be the NUMBER ONE issue in this election.

But….yep….it is not even an issue AT ALL!! ( :> |

I’ve made a few other comments on this subject already this morning:
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?discussion=3836
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=10747#178342

Decline in non-OPEC oil??

Nope, sorry, the author has to justify that one. As far as I know it simply isn't right. the recent history of oil has shown a gradual decline in OPEC oil's share of the market - a shift that's occured because OPEC has not bothered to invest in oil production facilities or search for oil as they should have. OPEC is quite happy with that situation, incidentally.
However, the author is right that as OPEC's production has tailed off (albeit not through any shortage but through failure to invest) any disruption may well cause price spikes. This is thought to have happened in 2008 price spike, although no-one is quite sure.
Price increases should bring unconventional oil on line and hurry production of the more expensive pre-salt oil but that will take time.. in themean time there may well be production.

As fossil fuels dwindle, then it will become profitable to use other forms of fuels currently too expensive, like say grassoline.

It would be a good reason to reclaim deserts and other areas currently less than hospitable.

When I see articles like this I always wonder why they don't look at other options.

During WWII, gasoline was in short supply, people used other forms of fuel for vehicles.

We'll adapt .. that's where money should be spent.

On bicycles .. nice idea but impractical when it rains, or you have to go to a meeting in your suit, or carry tools or a million other reasons - not everyone has a job where you can show up in cycling gear, have a shower, get changed then do a day's work and reverse the process. What are builders going to do, couriers, mother's with children. Countries that used bicycles, get off them as fast as they can, no one except those who seriously pursue it want that lifestyle, the rest of us tolerate them as the price we pay for a civilized country.

Amicus,

I was being a bit jocular. I do realise that not everybody can commute by bicycle. That being said, more and more of us are rain or shine. I think more would if there were more dedicated cycle tracks.

Obviously part of the answer to the coming oil crunch must be better planned cities with MUCH better public transport.

In the mean time I am looking forward to the spectacle of the Saudi royals having their heads cut off. On the whole I am not in favour of capital punishment and would not execute anyone myself. However if the Islamists in Saudi Arabia feel Allah has called them to behead the Saudi royals who am I to contradict them.

Russia has surpassed Saudi Arabis as the No 1 oil producer.Russia has the technology to reach really deep oil.Abiotic oil not created by organisms ie not fossil fuels,but processes deep within the earth that are enormous in reserve potential.This is what the Gulf disaster was all about.

Peak oil could well be a lie,to keep prices high at the bowser and line the pockets of a few.

How do we get people off this public transport myth?

Every public transport system, in the world, transporting bulk people uses more fuel per passenger mile than private cars, & much more than modern turbo diesel passenger cars.

Yes, we have the ideal country to produce bio-diesel from algae, grown in ponds, on a massive scale. However it would have to be at a massive scale to compete with shale oil.

No one has mentioned the obvious medium term option of changing over to gas. We have massive reserves, which we could use. This gas must not be wasted in power houses, just to pacify a few greenies, it's too valuable for that.

What we must do is stop this rubbish of trying to stop using coal. Steaming coal is very clean these days, & does produce all that nice fertilizer called CO2. The ash, which can be a problem is a great building material, & we must get our act together to use it. If we could just stop the AGW rubbish, we might get somewhere.

You can keep those rotten bikes, but personally, I'd love to go back to horses, but I expect to be long dead before the traffic situation would make horses safe again.

Getting a whiff of Has Been’s preference for horses for courses:
Replacing the horsepower generated by present Australian oil-burners would take quite a bit of hay – somewhat more than could be grown annually. We would need to stock up in advance of any shift to the nags. In other words, similar to oil.

In the case of oil, the readily available stocks - those we have used up over the past century - were accumulated over some hundreds of millions of years.

As Bjorn Lomborg says, when one resource diminishes others will become more economically viable - and eventually replace them. Quite so – we need a bit of lead time to stock up, so get started: invest in horse-feed now, and reap the rewards a few thousand millennia down the track.

As more rational thinkers say – ease off the growth pedal and learn to live within the environmental limits which constrain human persistence on the planet. That demands a much more modest, less arrogant, attitude from our currently excessive numbers.

Arjay wrote:

"...Russia has the technology to reach really deep oil.Abiotic oil ..that are enormous in reserve potential.This is what the Gulf disaster was all about.

"Peak oil could well be a lie,to keep prices high at the bowser and line the pockets of a few."

The official line is that there is not much abiotic oil about. See for example:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abiogenic_petroleum_origin

You and I, of course, know better Arjay. The Zionists in cahoots with the cyclists have bought up all the most promising abiotic oil fields. We're going to horde the abiotic oil until the other stuff runs out and then make a killing.

Oh, and we're being financed by Goldman Sachs. Lehman Brothers wouldn't play ball which is why they had to go.

Soon the Zionist / Cyclist Alliance will control the world.

BTW Don't believe all the stuff you read about Obama and Israel. That's just for show. He's in on the deal really.

BTW for those of you who like a really man sized CONSPIRACY THEORY here's one.

WHO DONE KEVIN IN?

--Was it the mining industry?

--Was it the coal lobby?

--Was it disgruntled greens?

--Was it the CIA?

--Or was it the Zionists?

Gideon Polya vacillates between these possibilities but ultimately, and predictably, plumps for the Zionists.

See:

Pro-Zionist-led Coup ousts Australian PM Rudd

http://mwcnews.net/focus/politics/3488-pro-zionist-led-coup.html

stevenlmeyer,I must be getting up your darmuses nostril.I don't pretend to know or predict all, but Jennifer Marohasy and others have mentioned the existence of supper deep oil created by the earth's chemistry called abiotic oil.Not much is known about it but Russia seems to be doing well.Wikipedia is not the font of all knowledege nor are you.The technology is new and as shown by the Gulf disaster,
has not been fully developed.

What have the Zionists got to do with this topic? We know that they are trying to use the USA to take Iran's oil.

I admit not having any respect or confidence in the earlier decisions of George Bush and consquently, John Howard and Tony Blair and the reasons come from an interview on 60 minutes about 5 or 6 years ago :- According to documents provided by former US Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill, George W. Bush, ten days after taking office in January 2001, instructed his aides to look for a way to overthrow the Iraqi regime. A secret memo entitled "Plan for post-Saddam Iraq" was discussed in January and February 2001, and a Pentagon document dated March 5, 2001, and entitled "Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield contracts", included a map of potential areas for petroleum exploration.[84]The US congress supplied weapons to Afghan forces to take over the Middle East oilfields, and this was the precedence to the attack on the Twin Trade Towers and the White house.

The author of the article went on about economising the usage of energy.
I suggest thinking about Jeavon's paradox;
Saving energy use results in more being used as it has now released money.

Algae is a problem. One study showed the ponds need to supply Europe
would need to be about the size of Ireland.

I find it hard to believe that more energy is used by public transport.
Off peak times I could agree but if the public had to use it the
patronage would be so high that it must be more efficient.
This would apply to electric transport especially. Use trolley buses
instead of diesel or natural gas buses.

Non Opec oil has been virtually steady since 2004, just a small rise of
about 500,000 barrels a day.
At present non Opec crude oil is 42.5 Mb/d and all liquids about 50 Mbd.
We are still on the plateau where we have been since May 2005.
China and India's demand is rising so our demand must decrease.
A good thing it would be too, ad our yearly oil bill will reach
A$30,000,000,000 before too long and while the government is borrowing
$100,000,000 a day it just cannot continue.
The government may get the budget into the black in three years but
the debt will continue to increase from its present level of about A$2.4 Trillion.
Right now we cannot afford to drive our cars.

Bazz wrote:

"Algae is a problem. One study showed the ponds need to supply Europe
would need to be about the size of Ireland."

Why is that an obstacle? It takes a much larger area of agricultural land to feed Europe.

Ireland has a surface area of about 70,000 square km.

If you add together the land area of Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain the UK as well as Ireland itself and a few smaller European countries you have a surface area of around 2.3 million square km. Setting aside 3% of that for fuel production does not seem unreasonable.

Many of the ponds might be in sunny Spain who, given their current economic difficulties, might welcome the opportunity to become the Saudi Arabia of algal fuel.

Steven, setting aside even 3% might be a problem as it would mean
taking it out of food production or out of forests.
It could be done I suppose. Would the area be in continuous production
or would it have to be shut down and the process restarted ?
If so a larger area might be needed.
Would it be more practical to have an enclosed process like a chemical
plant, but then how do you get light to it ?

Bazz

European agricultural land covers about 1 million square km. So even if you took all the land out of currently used agricultural land it would amount to 7%.

Europe agricultural surplus is greater, by far, than 7%.

In practice much of the algal growth would occur on land not suitable for agriculture.

Multi-story farming - not just for algae - may be an option.

See:

http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/2007/06/20/104517/Multi-storey-glasshouses-the-future-of-farming.htm

An enclosed chemical process would probably defeat the purpose. As you point out, how would you get the sunlight in.

Steven,
Yes as the article says, a theoretic construct.
The physical construction seems to be a problem with the shadow of the
storey above. The building would have to step back on each level as in
the summer the sun would be nearly overhead in most parts of the world.
The rest of the building under the step backs could be used for
residences, offices or warehouses.

Still, I can't see it being in time.
Typically, I wrote to my pollie asking what is the opposition going to
do about energy depletion and specifically peak oil and I got an
answer all about global warming and CO2 reduction !

The attitude of politicians is right for the generation of the
conspiracy theory to end all conspiracy theories.

Bazz

You expected a sensible answer about a complex question from a politician! I am afraid I shall have to downgrade my estimate of your IQ by 50 points.

On a more serious note. Even single story indoor farms could result in doubling yield.

Except over the equator the sun is never directly overhead. Therefore thin buildings facing the direction of the sun could intercept a lot of sunlight.

The bigger problem is not the storey above but the shadow of the adjacent building. Vertical farms in the southern hemisphere would have to form a phalanx on the northern edge of the city.

Or they could be outside the actual city.

Will it happen? I think so. But not necessarily in the next decade or so

Hi Bazz,

Thought this might interest you. Solazyme is one of the leading contenders in the race to develop commercially viable algal fuel processes.

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2267929/solazyme-brews-fresh-funding

Thanks for the link Steven,
Richard Branson is betting his airline business on algae.
If fuel gets short I wonder what people will think about queuing for
petrol as Virgin takes off overhead ?

I did read somewhere that the fuel went very thick at low temperatures
but I could not see why if it had the characteristics of oil.
Heating it would be risky and cut down on range.

Sorry for the delay in replying as was in Canada for a couple of weeks.
If anyone wants a demo of the trouble Nth American cities will be in
then Toronto is a prime example.
Without a car you might as well just go to bed and stay there.