Hi Maverick,

Oppress you?

Not me!

"All the gang of those who rule us
Hope our quarrels never stop
Helping them to split and fool us
So they can remain on top."
(Bertolt Brecht).

Thanks Foxy

For your thoughts and poetry.

Lidia is at the radical end of many fragmented Aboriginal groupings who are not at all happy with the Referendum process and timings.

Many are aware of the risk of greater social disharmony, particularly if the Referendum falls over.

Albo, with his popularity "honeymoon" coming to an end, is a humanitarian gambler indeed, and he's feeling increasing pressures.

Cheers Mavs

Thank you Mavs.

It is complicated.

The more I learn. The more I realise how little I know.

VOICE VOTE WILL LOSE: PART ONE

The Canberra Times, November 5 2022 opinion piece by Professor Matt Qvortrup (of Coventry University, currently visiting Professor at ANU College of Law) http://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7964537/history-shows-a-herculean-effort-needed-for-a-yes-vote/

“Matt Qvortrup - Australia's past referendum results show Voice to Parliament vote will lose"

"Australia will soon hold its first referendum in over 20 years. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed that a vote will be held on a Voice to Parliament."

According to the official website http://fromtheheart.com.au/what-is-a-voice-to-parliament/ "A Voice to Parliament" is a body enshrined in the Constitution that would enable Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to provide advice to the Parliament on policies and projects that impact their lives."

Whatever the merits of the proposal, lessons from other referendums suggest that the historical vote will be lost.

According to a statistical model, the Albanese government will lose by 8 per cent.

How is that? Opinion polls currently give those supporting 'the voice' a lead of 65-35 per cent.

So, why the dire prediction? Why am I so confident?

For starters, this author predicted Brexit in an article published a full five months before the British voted to leave the European Union in 2016.

The same model can be applied to the forthcoming vote and the result is not encouraging for Mr Albanese.

No, it has got nothing to do with the question. Referendums are not won because of the issue on the ballot but for other reasons.

Based on an analysis of all 600-plus votes held since World War II, all constitutional referendums start from a base of 56 percent yes-support.
But in countries where there is compulsory voting (like in Australia, Chile, and Luxembourg) there is a drop-off of 13 per cent in support.

Add to this, that governments lose one percent per year when they are in office, and the forthcoming vote will be lost by a clearer margin than the Republic referendum in 1999.

Of course, there are other reasons for Labor to be pessimistic.

As readers are well-aware, referendums in Australia are about as likely to pass as reheated soufflé is to rise."

VOICE VOTE WILL LOSE: PART TWO

Canberra Times piece continues http://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7964537/history-shows-a-herculean-effort-needed-for-a-yes-vote/

A popular majority has been secured in only 13 of the 44 referendums held since 1901, and fewer (eight) propositions received the necessary double majority (majority of voters as well as a majority of the states). This is a poor record however one looks at it.

Compared with other developed countries, the record is lamentable. Ireland has held nearly as many referendums as Australia, but in that country only nine out of 39 (23 percent) have failed. And in Switzerland, out of the 73 votes held since 1980, a mere 12 (16 percent) have resulted in a no-vote. The average yes-percentage has been 86.

So, are Australians simply naysayers and small-c conservatives?
Not really, it is just that in other countries, there is no compulsory voting and referendums are held early in the term.

Is there a way out? Perhaps, the statistical model also shows that bi-partisan support adds 8 per cent to the result.

But even this does not guarantee success. Should Peter Dutton decide to throw his weight behind 'the voice', the 'yes' side will only just get over the 50 per cent mark.

And this is with a margin of error of 2 per cent.

This is a case of too close for comfort.

Moreover, history does not bode well for the proposal. In 1950, Liberal prime minister Robert Menzies initially enjoyed over 80 percent support for his proposal to ban the Communist Party of Australia in 1950. Yet he lost.

Robert Menzies, said - on the same occasion - "the truth of the matter is that to get an affirmative vote from the Australian people on a referendum proposal is one of the labours of Hercules".

That is a high bar indeed. Slaying the nine-headed Lernaean Hydra, and steading the mares of Diomenes, was not easy for the Greek hero. But he did it. Whether the Australian government feel that they have the same powers as a son of Zeus is a question only they can answer."

We have a chance to change Australia for the better.
And just like Peter Dutton who regrets not being
present for the apology issued by then Prime Minister
Kevin Rudd, we will regret it if we don't take this
opportunity of granting a Voice to Parliament.

Labor has made the Voice to Parliament its highest
priority. There are many naysayers who say a referendum
won't succeed. But as Gay Alcorn points out in The Age -
" It should be remembered that the referendum in 1967
that enabled the Commonwealth to enact laws for Indigenous
Australians and to remove the prohibition agains5t
counting them in the population in the Commonwealth or
a State - passed with a backing of more than 90% of
Australians, the highest level of support for any
referendum since Federation."

Of course the support of most side of politics is needed
for the Voice to pass. Linda Burney has committed to working
with the Coalition on the process of providing the specifics for
a Voice to Parliament. She has her work cut out for her.
Finding a model that has the backing of not only her political
opponents but the broad sweep of Indigenous society is a
daunting task.

Gay Alcorn tells us that - "the Voice, treaty, and grassroots
assistance in communities can progress simultaneously. If
enacted effectively, an Indigenous Voice to Parliament is a
big idea that could re-shape Australia symbolically and
practically for the betterment of First Nations people."

Surely it is an idea that we Australians can/should all fully
endorse.