The Forum > General Discussion > Is Putin planning to flee?
Is Putin planning to flee?
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Posted by Yuyutsu, Tuesday, 2 August 2022 11:38:08 AM
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AC,
Oil prices are dropping to levels close to Feb 24, and so is Russian oil production falling. Russia is selling its oil at a 30% discount to India and China. Gas sales are dropping to less than 50% of pre-war levels and non-commodities sales have dropped to nearly zero. Meanwhile, the war is costing Russia $bns every day which is not even covered by all its oil exports. Russia minor advances in the Donbas are compensated by Ukraine's advances in Kherson and against Isium. Al this time Russia is losing tanks, vehicles and men. The planned fraudulent referendum in Kherson is not worth the paper it is printed on and capture of Kherson west of the river will put Crimea with the range of HIMAS. Russia is going to lose the unjustified war it started. The question is whether Putin will survive this loss. Posted by shadowminister, Tuesday, 2 August 2022 3:56:02 PM
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Hey Yuyutsu,
"What's wrong with joining a defensive treaty, especially when you see your neighbour becoming more and more authoritarian?" - It's certainly not a defensive pact if NATO moves eastwards and the US builds military bases with nuclear weapons in Ukraine 600kms from Moscow. http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early Regarding Taiwan: Taiwan's a part of China, and has been since the Japanese were defeated in WWII. The Taiwanese people currently support the status quo not independence, their nation and people are intertwined with China. The Republic of China, which overthrew the Qing Dynasty in 1911, took control of Taiwan on behalf of the Allies of World War II following the surrender of Japan in 1945. The Chinese Civil War was fought between the Kuomintang-led government of the Republic of China and forces of the Chinese Communist Party, lasting intermittently after 1927. The civil war resumed as soon as it became apparent that the Japanese defeat was imminent, and the CCP gained the upper hand in the second phase of the war from 1945 to 1949, known as the Chinese Communist Revolution. The Communists gained control of mainland China and established the People's Republic of China in 1949, forcing the leadership of the Republic of China to retreat to the island of Taiwan. Starting in the 1950s, a lasting political and military standoff between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has ensued, with the ROC in Taiwan and the PRC in mainland China both officially claiming to be the legitimate government of all China. After the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, both tacitly ceased fire in 1979; however, no armistice or peace treaty has ever been signed." The US supported the ROC in the civil war. President Jimmy Carter - Speech on Relations with China - December 15, 1978. http://youtu.be/37azeXBjYJc "The government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China, and Taiwan is a part of China." Posted by Armchair Critic, Tuesday, 2 August 2022 5:01:19 PM
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AC
Once again your logic is faulty. Lithuania is a Nato country even closer to Moscow and Estonia is 150km to St Petersburg, and now Finland and Sweden with powerful armies are to join Nato more than doubling Russia's border with Nato. Russia's economy is circling the drain and is burning through cash reserves at a huge rate. In 5 months it has burnt through $75bn and while it still has about $250bn its oil and gas revenues are dropping and its costs of fighting are more than $1bn per day. Posted by shadowminister, Wednesday, 3 August 2022 5:45:34 AM
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Dear Critic,
OK, so NATO didn't keep their word not to expand eastward. Tsk Tsk. I understand that not keeping one's word raises suspicions, but that does not imply that these suspicions are correct and that NATO is anything but a defensive pact. As threats increased when Russia became more authoritarian, also when it attacked Georgia, NATO's defensive strategy had to adjust. I agree that the U.S.A could have other motives, but NATO is much more than just one country. "The government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China, and Taiwan is a part of China." Yes, bloody spineless Americans. But why should you, of all decent people, support these American cowards, who essentially behave the same by still occupying Hawaii? You give me loads of history, correct facts, but why should that matter? The people of Taiwan (and Hong Kong) want to be free, they are no different than you and me, they don't want to fall into the jaws of that most terrible oppressive regime, that same regime that destroyed Tibet, that same regime that carries out a holocaust of the Uighur people this very moment, that regime that arrests and tortures people because of their religion, etc. ,etc. Would you allow these good people of Taiwan to be devoured just because such-and-such happened historically some 70 years ago? I support the freedom and independence of any group of people who do not want to be part of a larger conglomerate. Don't you too? This is true of China, this is true of the U.S.A, this is true of Australia, this is even true if the Ukrainians of Lohansk, Donetsk and Crimea are GENUINELY wanting to break away from Ukraine. Posted by Yuyutsu, Wednesday, 3 August 2022 7:20:08 PM
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I cannot fathom why Putin thought invading Ukraine was a good idea.
If Russia wins, it will hold a ruined country that will cost a fortune to rebuild. It will be faced with a sullen population and a bitter Resistance army that will be unrelenting. The British SOE might even reopen for business. What a mess ! Posted by Bazz, Wednesday, 3 August 2022 10:57:17 PM
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«It seems clear the west planned for Ukraine to join NATO, just as they are planning to recognise Taiwan as independent, and cause a stink there as well.»
What's wrong with joining a defensive treaty, especially when you see your neighbour becoming more and more authoritarian?
The people of Taiwan, like the people of Australia, live in relative freedom. While our personal freedom in the "West" is painfully limited, no denial about that, it is still not anywhere as limited as that of the people with the misfortune to live in China.
While thanking God every day that we do not live in China, isn't it also our moral duty to oppose, with our own blood if needed, any attempt by China to conquer the relatively-free people of Taiwan and make them slaves like their own population?