Is this the beginning of the End for the Russian invasion?

"Russian President Vladimir Putin and his close allies have reportedly drafted evacuation plans should Ukraine manage to defeat thousands of invading Russian soldiers.

The Ukrainian military claimed on Saturday it killed dozens of Russian troops in the city of Kherson in the south, and rail traffic has been cut, potentially isolating the invaders from sending military supplies to Crimea and slowing its attack.

Russia has struggled in recent weeks to overcome defiant Ukrainian troops with offensive fronts stalling while Moscow's economy has begun to collapse from the dozens of sanctions imposed by dozens of nations, including Australia."

In the interim, the US is looking to provide 4 more HIMAS systems and up to 10 000 rockets and is looking at training the Ukrainian pilots on F16s and A10 warthogs.

Too much misinformation shadowminister, for me to have any real idea how the war is going, but it is now pretty obvious that it is the EU economies, & particularly the German economy that has begun to collapse, rather than the Russian.

US is looking to provide 4 more HIMAS systems and up to 10 000 rockets and is looking at training the Ukrainian pilots on F16s and A10 warthogs.

They're just itching to start WW3

Is he planning to flee? Of course not and shadowminister doling out more Sky News rubbish is hardly worth a mention.

But for those who would like to listen to someone I have been following recently then this Australian is doing a very good job as a systems analyst giving quite informed and sober assessments of the conflict.

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCC3ehuUksTyQ7bbjGntmx3Q

His one on the role of artillery was particularly insightful.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMEpxX7rS5I

As soon as Harris takes over from Biden within the next twelve months, things will change. Military supplies to Ukraine will dry up & Putin will hand over power ! Zelensky will be side-lined.

What about the terrible things done to the 17% Russian population of Ukraine, by the Nazi Azov militia, about which Zelenskyy says nothing?

The West is covering up for Zelenskyy, who forbids the Russian language and bans opposition parties.

SR,

I have viewed most of the material you have linked to. I am perfectly aware of the huge advantage the Russians have enjoyed over the Ukrainians in artillery and the gains they have made. However, the long-term campaign assessments extend far beyond the short-term battlefield gains.

Russia's special operation has largely stalled and recent gains have come at a huge price in men and materiel. Russia even with its large defence industry is losing tanks, vehicles and manpower at a rate larger than it can match without a general mobilisation. Russia is close to exhausting people to conscript in occupied Ukraine and the number of young men that have disappeared has not gone unnoticed by parents. Whereas Ukraine is getting more equipment with greater lethality from the west.

With the delivery of the HIMAS and the 155mm howitzer longer-range precision equipment, the balance on the battlefield is shifting. Russia's logistics (never a strong point) have been severely limited by the accurate fire as the destruction of Russian materiel is consistent and increasing.

While Putin at this point is not losing the war, he is certainly not winning. Already his army is showing signs of exhaustion, and there is no sign that with the ever-tightening sanctions that Russia can keep on absorbing these losses for years.

Without a decisive victory, Putin is screwed.

Depends where you get your news shadowminister,
if you rely on western news which comes straight out of Ukraine and is one-sided or The Kagan family's Institute for the Study of War, then you'll get a slanted view of whats going on.
A lot of what western citizens are being told is mistruths, in order to bolster enough support to keep them backing the war.

You say Russians are losing, then why did they shell the Antonovsky Bridge?
Is that an offensive or defensive action do you think?
http://www.kyivpost.com/russias-war/vital-bridge-attacked-in-kherson-as-ukrainian-army-goes-on-counter-offensive.html
How are they going to wage this big counter-offensive to take back Kherson if they destroy the bridge they need to cross to attack Kherson? It's all crap for the benefit of western citizens.
Don't forget their air force is destroyed.
They don't want the A10's they want MIG-29's but no-one is willing to give them up, that's why they're being offered F-16's because they can't get anything else, and they will have to be retrained to fly them.

There's discrepancies in the numbers of casualties.
Ukraine says 15,000 Russians killed, and based on that number and a 4 to 1 'back of the envelope' ratio for wounded you get 75,000 killed and wounded. That number is more than half what Russia started out with, while Ukraine had over 650K troops
- But even Britain says about 6000 Russians killed, so you actually get around 30k killed and wounded for Russia total.

What's happening at the moment is that Ukraine wants to do a big counter-offensive in Kherson, in order to stop an upcoming referendum in which Russia will officially claim the territory, also money and weapons from the West is starting to dry up. All this will be a sideshow if US starts something in Taiwan.
Also, although there is disagreement on the issue, Ukraine bombed its own Azovstal NAZI's because they had been talking too much to the Russians about how their commanders forced them to fire on civilians, so they blew them up, to shut them up.

Europe is starting to fracture, come winter they will be in serious trouble. The German economy is getting closer to collapse, and their might be protests when things get worse, the West has gone begging for fuel from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Venezuela etc but hasn't got any and are using their strategic reserves.

It's likely the G7 will eventually pay for the East-Med pipeline.

Sanctions have done way more harm to the West than it's harmed Russia, they are making more from energy exports than they were before the war started, though the strengthened ruble isn't exactly doing any favors.
Russia and China have started a new reserve global currency with others BRICS countries, and not many countries as the West hoped have backed the West.

I watch a couple of YouTube channels at the moment
(Listed below in order of most watched)

http://www.youtube.com/c/AlexanderMercourisReal/videos
http://www.youtube.com/c/AlexChristoforou/videos
http://www.youtube.com/c/TheDuran/videos
http://www.youtube.com/c/CRUXnews/videos
http://www.youtube.com/c/DefensePoliticsAsia/videos
http://www.youtube.com/c/TheNewAtlas/videos
http://www.youtube.com/c/iEarlGreytv/videos
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUnc496-PPmFZVKlYxUnToA/videos

- Better info than what you'll get from websites or the tv

AC,

Once again quoting BS.

Most of Kherson is on the west side of the river. Blowing the bridges stops the reinforcement of troops in the area and gives them nowhere to retreat. It is a precursor to a counterattack.

Russia is selling nearly as much oil as it was before but at a $30/b discount with the oil price now only $20 higher than it was pre-war. 83% of its gas sales were to Europe via pipeline which has now dropped by 70% this gas presently cannot be sold elsewhere.

Also, most other commodities sales have dropped and any tech or arms has dropped to zero.

Casualties are about 75000 killed or seriously wounded and tanks and vehicle losses are in the 1000s

Ukraine is getting stronger all the time, and Russia is bleeding out.

"Most of Kherson is on the west side of the river. Blowing the bridges stops the reinforcement of troops in the area and gives them nowhere to retreat. It is a precursor to a counterattack."

No it's not. The city of Kherson is on the Western side of the river, but the large majority of land is in the east, and FYI I've seen vehicles crossing the damaged Antonovsky Bridge already.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kherson_Oblast
How would they attack the larger eastern side to prevent the coming referendum if they blow up those bridges themselves?
Maybe most of the citizens of Kherson Oblast are on the western side, I'm not sure, but they will never cross and take the eastern side now without air cover if those bridges are gone.
It's not the only bridge crossing anyway, there's also a railway bridge 2klms upriver.

"Casualties are about 75000 killed or seriously wounded and tanks and vehicle losses are in the 1000s"
That's a back of the envolope number based on a 4 to ratio of killed to wounded and Ukraine 'claims' they've killed 15000 Russians.
The UK says 6000 which equals 30000 in total.

Beyond all this, it seems clear now that Putin was completely justified in invading Ukraine.
It seems clear the west planned for Ukraine to join NATO, just as they are planning to recognise Taiwan as independent, and cause a stink there as well.
These are the conclusions both Russia and China have come to, based on US belligerent actions.

As Russia Advances in Donbass Crisis Heats up in Kosovo; EU/UK Major Retreat on Russia Oil Sanctions
http://youtu.be/ZdeBTmhroM8

West eases efforts to restrict Russian oil trading as inflation and energy risks mount
http://en.portnews.ru/news/333133/
EU to soften sanctions on Russian banks to allow food trade
http://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/eu-soften-sanctions-russian-banks-allow-food-trade-2022-07-19/

- The US wants Russian oil to stabilize soaring prices, but it also doesn't want Russia to be handsomely paid for it.

Dear Critic,

«It seems clear the west planned for Ukraine to join NATO, just as they are planning to recognise Taiwan as independent, and cause a stink there as well.»

What's wrong with joining a defensive treaty, especially when you see your neighbour becoming more and more authoritarian?

The people of Taiwan, like the people of Australia, live in relative freedom. While our personal freedom in the "West" is painfully limited, no denial about that, it is still not anywhere as limited as that of the people with the misfortune to live in China.

While thanking God every day that we do not live in China, isn't it also our moral duty to oppose, with our own blood if needed, any attempt by China to conquer the relatively-free people of Taiwan and make them slaves like their own population?

AC,

Oil prices are dropping to levels close to Feb 24, and so is Russian oil production falling. Russia is selling its oil at a 30% discount to India and China. Gas sales are dropping to less than 50% of pre-war levels and non-commodities sales have dropped to nearly zero. Meanwhile, the war is costing Russia $bns every day which is not even covered by all its oil exports.

Russia minor advances in the Donbas are compensated by Ukraine's advances in Kherson and against Isium. Al this time Russia is losing tanks, vehicles and men.

The planned fraudulent referendum in Kherson is not worth the paper it is printed on and capture of Kherson west of the river will put Crimea with the range of HIMAS.

Russia is going to lose the unjustified war it started. The question is whether Putin will survive this loss.

Hey Yuyutsu,

"What's wrong with joining a defensive treaty, especially when you see your neighbour becoming more and more authoritarian?"

- It's certainly not a defensive pact if NATO moves eastwards and the US builds military bases with nuclear weapons in Ukraine 600kms from Moscow.

http://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early

Regarding Taiwan:

Taiwan's a part of China, and has been since the Japanese were defeated in WWII.
The Taiwanese people currently support the status quo not independence, their nation and people are intertwined with China.

The Republic of China, which overthrew the Qing Dynasty in 1911, took control of Taiwan on behalf of the Allies of World War II following the surrender of Japan in 1945.

The Chinese Civil War was fought between the Kuomintang-led government of the Republic of China and forces of the Chinese Communist Party, lasting intermittently after 1927.

The civil war resumed as soon as it became apparent that the Japanese defeat was imminent, and the CCP gained the upper hand in the second phase of the war from 1945 to 1949, known as the Chinese Communist Revolution.

The Communists gained control of mainland China and established the People's Republic of China in 1949, forcing the leadership of the Republic of China to retreat to the island of Taiwan.
Starting in the 1950s, a lasting political and military standoff between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait has ensued, with the ROC in Taiwan and the PRC in mainland China both officially claiming to be the legitimate government of all China.
After the Second Taiwan Strait Crisis, both tacitly ceased fire in 1979; however, no armistice or peace treaty has ever been signed."
The US supported the ROC in the civil war.

President Jimmy Carter - Speech on Relations with China - December 15, 1978.
http://youtu.be/37azeXBjYJc

"The government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China, and Taiwan is a part of China."

AC

Once again your logic is faulty. Lithuania is a Nato country even closer to Moscow and Estonia is 150km to St Petersburg, and now Finland and Sweden with powerful armies are to join Nato more than doubling Russia's border with Nato.

Russia's economy is circling the drain and is burning through cash reserves at a huge rate. In 5 months it has burnt through $75bn and while it still has about $250bn its oil and gas revenues are dropping and its costs of fighting are more than $1bn per day.

Dear Critic,

OK, so NATO didn't keep their word not to expand eastward. Tsk Tsk.
I understand that not keeping one's word raises suspicions, but that does not imply that these suspicions are correct and that NATO is anything but a defensive pact. As threats increased when Russia became more authoritarian, also when it attacked Georgia, NATO's defensive strategy had to adjust. I agree that the U.S.A could have other motives, but NATO is much more than just one country.

"The government of the United States of America acknowledges the Chinese position that there is but one China, and Taiwan is a part of China."

Yes, bloody spineless Americans. But why should you, of all decent people, support these American cowards, who essentially behave the same by still occupying Hawaii?

You give me loads of history, correct facts, but why should that matter? The people of Taiwan (and Hong Kong) want to be free, they are no different than you and me, they don't want to fall into the jaws of that most terrible oppressive regime, that same regime that destroyed Tibet, that same regime that carries out a holocaust of the Uighur people this very moment, that regime that arrests and tortures people because of their religion, etc. ,etc. Would you allow these good people of Taiwan to be devoured just because such-and-such happened historically some 70 years ago?

I support the freedom and independence of any group of people who do not want to be part of a larger conglomerate. Don't you too? This is true of China, this is true of the U.S.A, this is true of Australia, this is even true if the Ukrainians of Lohansk, Donetsk and Crimea are GENUINELY wanting to break away from Ukraine.

I cannot fathom why Putin thought invading Ukraine was a good idea.
If Russia wins, it will hold a ruined country that will cost a fortune
to rebuild. It will be faced with a sullen population and a bitter
Resistance army that will be unrelenting.
The British SOE might even reopen for business.
What a mess !

Easy,

As Germany did in Poland, Hitler thought that he could invade quickly and grab a chunk of land and get away with it.

Unfortunately for the idiot Putin firstly his army wasn't up to the job and secondly Ukraine was far stronger than it had been in 2014 and stopped his army dead, and finally the resolve of the west to support Ukraine was far beyond what Putin expected.

His army is getting hammered and now they are pushing for peace.