The Lowy Institute has put a different light on China that could counter some of the fatalistic 'all-is-lost' scary stuff regularly thumped out by the media and individuals who tell us we should suck up to China or else.

Being the world's largest economy is still on the cards for China, but 'vastly surpassing' the U.S. is out of the question. China will never have a 'meaningful' lead over the U.S. While it still could be the world's largest economy, China will remain far less prosperous in terms of products per person. Growth will slow to around 3% by 2030, then average 2%-3% until 2050, because of its "uniquely draconian" past population policies, reliance on investment-driven growth and slowing productivity growth.

China's population is ageing. The birth rate is rapidly declining - 1.3 births per woman (2.1 is the replacement rate). By 2050, the workforce will have shrunk by 220 million.

Geopolitics means that China can no longer rely on unfettered access to Western markets, as the Asian tigers South Korea and Taiwan can.

The ability to rely on infrastructure projects is reaching its limits in terms of driving growth. Overinvestment, by 2040, will see public capital per worker at $US120,000, or about 50% higher than most countries.

ttbn,

The economy of China is not looking good at the moment, with the crash of the property market which was 29% of its GDP and coronavirus running rampant China will be lucky not to hit high negative growth. Already the government is opening the taps to spend itself out of recession against the background of Greece's levels of debt.

With the war in Ukraine, all commodity prices have shot up which is adding huge costs to the Chinese economy, and the last thing China needs is secondary sanctions if it supports Russia.

SM,

Yes. Not the sort of facts that the scaremongering media wants us to know. There are also many buildings flung up in a capital growth frenzy that are empty and look like remaining empty.

It could be said, I suppose, that Xi and his CCP might start to panic and lash out at the West sooner rather than later. The other scenario is that they will be too tied up with domestic problems - there are already hundreds of demonstrations every day throughout the country - to be able move against us,

The CCP is dealing with the West, Australia in particular, in a same way it deals with the Chinese people - bullying. We are resisting the bullying; so are many Chinese people, unreported by the MSM. All might not be the way it is made to seem by the CCP - or probably just Xi himself - and the sabre rattlers of the gutter press.

Global warming, Covid, Ukraine, & China all bulldust from the MSN.

Is there any reason to ever buy a newspaper, or watch a mainstream news?

Hasbeen,

I haven't had reason to get my fingers inky by reading papers for years. I still put the TV news on out of habit, because I don't have to pay for it, but the unimportant drivel that affects almost nobody puts me to sleep. My wife and I get some of our most beneficial sleep during what passes for news. These days you can find out what you need to know from better sources than the lefty MSM, when you want it.

Another problem for China is that its economy is a dependent one: 90% of its exports are produced for foreign firms, using components outsourced by their marketers in America and Europe; and its productivity is 7 times below that of America's. In 2021, it was reported that that China was experiencing an exodus of foreign firms, despite what is being said by commercial lobbyists and business consultants.

You just do not hear or see this information in the main stream media.