The Lowy Institute has put a different light on China that could counter some of the fatalistic 'all-is-lost' scary stuff regularly thumped out by the media and individuals who tell us we should suck up to China or else.

Being the world's largest economy is still on the cards for China, but 'vastly surpassing' the U.S. is out of the question. China will never have a 'meaningful' lead over the U.S. While it still could be the world's largest economy, China will remain far less prosperous in terms of products per person. Growth will slow to around 3% by 2030, then average 2%-3% until 2050, because of its "uniquely draconian" past population policies, reliance on investment-driven growth and slowing productivity growth.

China's population is ageing. The birth rate is rapidly declining - 1.3 births per woman (2.1 is the replacement rate). By 2050, the workforce will have shrunk by 220 million.

Geopolitics means that China can no longer rely on unfettered access to Western markets, as the Asian tigers South Korea and Taiwan can.

The ability to rely on infrastructure projects is reaching its limits in terms of driving growth. Overinvestment, by 2040, will see public capital per worker at $US120,000, or about 50% higher than most countries.

ttbn,

The economy of China is not looking good at the moment, with the crash of the property market which was 29% of its GDP and coronavirus running rampant China will be lucky not to hit high negative growth. Already the government is opening the taps to spend itself out of recession against the background of Greece's levels of debt.

With the war in Ukraine, all commodity prices have shot up which is adding huge costs to the Chinese economy, and the last thing China needs is secondary sanctions if it supports Russia.

SM,

Yes. Not the sort of facts that the scaremongering media wants us to know. There are also many buildings flung up in a capital growth frenzy that are empty and look like remaining empty.

It could be said, I suppose, that Xi and his CCP might start to panic and lash out at the West sooner rather than later. The other scenario is that they will be too tied up with domestic problems - there are already hundreds of demonstrations every day throughout the country - to be able move against us,

The CCP is dealing with the West, Australia in particular, in a same way it deals with the Chinese people - bullying. We are resisting the bullying; so are many Chinese people, unreported by the MSM. All might not be the way it is made to seem by the CCP - or probably just Xi himself - and the sabre rattlers of the gutter press.

Global warming, Covid, Ukraine, & China all bulldust from the MSN.

Is there any reason to ever buy a newspaper, or watch a mainstream news?

Hasbeen,

I haven't had reason to get my fingers inky by reading papers for years. I still put the TV news on out of habit, because I don't have to pay for it, but the unimportant drivel that affects almost nobody puts me to sleep. My wife and I get some of our most beneficial sleep during what passes for news. These days you can find out what you need to know from better sources than the lefty MSM, when you want it.

Another problem for China is that its economy is a dependent one: 90% of its exports are produced for foreign firms, using components outsourced by their marketers in America and Europe; and its productivity is 7 times below that of America's. In 2021, it was reported that that China was experiencing an exodus of foreign firms, despite what is being said by commercial lobbyists and business consultants.

You just do not hear or see this information in the main stream media.

ttbn, promotes a downcast "alternative" view of China, but does not say where this alternative view comes from. Its not coming from the MSM, as ttbn admits he is in la la land having a nanny nap where the news is on the telly. Old chap, where does this view of yours come from?

Paul,

The information is available if you look beyond cartoon networks.

This financial blog gives a reasonably accurate assessment.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l9ja8gH7Vjc

What SM, take notice of some Pommy unknown on YouTube. Seems to be flogging his investment scheme. Who is he?

Paul

Your reading is as bad as your writing. The source is in the first three words of my post, "The Lowy Institute". Did you spend most of your schooling in the corner, wearing a pointy hat?

As for the "downcast" view. It is an upbeat view. China might not be the threat the CCP and the scaremongers make it out to be. The biggest threat could turn out to be the senile U.S. president. There has never been a better time for wannabes and tinpot dictators to rattle their cages with an idiot in the Whitehouse, plus the Woke West in general, throwing away their power with climate change fussing, gender bending, phasing out cheap, reliable fossil fuels, and a lot of other pathetic rot.

Fortunately, Donald Trump is working hard to oust the idiot. He, or Ron de Santis, might be the only people who can save Western civilisation, provided it can survive until 2024.

That link was interesting. It explains why those building that we saw
demolished a month or two back were removed.
If they were like the ones shown, then a building like that without
lifts installed is unusable. Lifts cannot be built in later.
They were never intended to be occupied.
Wouldn't the scam have been easier to just sell off the plan and disappear ?
Perhaps buyers had alredy become wary of off the plan, so the next step
was to start construction and build a shell.

A friend in a business that dealt with Chinese companies said you
cannot take anything at face value with Chinese, you have to have
everything completed and on documents and legally checked right up
until the ship sails.
Miss one thing and they will rip you off.

Pauliar,

I know you struggle with concepts but most bloggers survive through advertising, which most people skip through. While much of this information you could glean from such as The Wall Street Journal, this Joe Blogs is particularly good at condensing the recent events into a 15-minute synopsis. Not all his blogs focus on China but given the crisis in China affects the whole world, it is worth a mention from time to time.

However, if you want to spend hours ploughing through high brow articles you can. Or as I mentioned before, there are plenty of alternate sources.

I am reasonably confident that not only do I have a clear idea of what is happening in China, but also that you are clueless. If you can disprove anything he posts please do so, otherwise, stop being a crybaby.

Here is another off the cuff thought !
Re more boots on the ground in Ukraine;
What if those boots belonged to a country not a NATO member, perhaps
not even European ?
Putin could not blame US, NATO or EU.
Ideally it should be a UN Peace Enforcing armed force.

UN, who or what is that ?
Seems to be name I heard some while back.
Has it ever done anything useful so we might remember it ?

The "Wall Street Journal" how mainstream can you get. shonky who was that "blabber" you were pushing from YouTube, he wasn't worth wasting 15 minutes of my life, so I cut him short.

ttbn, as per usual I missed your opening sentence, in fact I missed your opening post all together, see above about wasting ones life. Lowy Institute I'll give you that, they tend to do a bit of research before pontificating on something or other, unlike shonky and his "blabber". I laughed once, but lets have a second crack-up;

"I (shonkyminister) am reasonably confident that not only do I have a clear idea of what is happening in China" The laughs are never ending, Jesus Christ, YOU wouldn't have a clear idea of which way to put your undies on in the mornings, do you still stick em' on your head?

Paul,

You missed the post altogether, yet you can criticise it. You are certifiable: too crazy to bother with.

ttbn, don't be so hard, having read your post it seems rather creditable, and its not one of those long diatribes over several efforts that the kudos kid likes to stick us with. AND, I was shocked to hear your vote ended up in the Labor pile in the SA election, after the obligatory kissy, kissy, with the Lovely Pauline first, but you're getting there.

Pauliar,

Stop being a fwit crybaby. First, you say the information is not in the MSM and then when I refer to the WSJ you say that I'm being too mainstream? Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. I think that in a dictionary when they define a moron, they should include your photo.

If you don't like the blog of a financial advisor to whom nearly 50 000 people subscribe, and refuse to even watch the video or even try and educate yourself then you are not just stupid, you are deliberately choosing to be stupid.

Here's a blog from a financial analyst living in China who takes the daily financial information available in China and sums it up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MtDsEhVZ1zk

Or perhaps you could for the first time provide a link to something relevant.

Well, quite finished there SM, no longer content with posting diatribes from your favoured Murdoch Gutter Press, which is crazy MSM, you now resort to posting links to lunatic blabbers on YouTube. In my original reading of ttbn's opening post there was more to it above the ad for breast enlargement, than first met the eye, he had made reference to the Lowy Institute which I had missed, which I accept as a creditable source of information. You on the other hand with links to lunatic blabbers is unacceptable as you peddle your hatred of China, and all things Chinese.

Chinese investors in real estate are just the same here as those described in SM's link: buying houses and not occupying them, or letting them out, but just hanging onto them as investments to sell at the best time.

There is one a few minutes walk from me: $1.5 million plus worth, that was a new build, that has never been occupied in the 8 years I have been walking past it. It is in dreadful condition - paint-peeled rotting woodwork; when there is a dearth of rental properties for people desperate for somewhere to live.

Federal Liberal politician Kevin Andrews recently wrote an article about the number of these empty houses in his electorate, acknowledging that this is what absent Chinese investors do. Selfish pricks, no use or benefit to Australia.

Pauliar,

Since the google adverts are based on your search history, the question is why you are looking for breast enlargement? Are you transitioning to a hermaphrodite or just looking at porn?

Secondly, since you don't get any information from the mainstream media or other experts do you simply live under a rock and make up bullsh1t?

Pauliar,

I don't hate Chinese or Russians, just the Fwit (ex)communist leaders that are screwing it up for their people and the country.

You clearly love the CCP and thus hate the people suffering from their despotic rule.

Pauliar,

Try this:

https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/evergrande-s-latest-update-is-bad-news-for-australia-20220323-p5a737

Nah shonky, I don't want to subscribe to your MSM, so I can read your nonsense. I suspect many greedy property developers developers the world over are in trouble, rising interest rates and high inflation don't help greedy speculators.

I have no love for the CCP as you claim, but I see no viable alternative at this time. Imagine if Biden, worse still, imagine if Morrison were running China, what a disaster the Chinese people would be suffering. Despite all the hostility from the failing West, led by America, and supported by toadies such as Australia, Australia is America's number one toadie, China has been relatively restrained in its response to provercation.

Have you dumped Putin, he was one of your pin up boys a short while back.

Pauliar,

I see your answer to actually reading facts is to smoke a fat one and revert to paranoid conspiracy theories.

Don't be such a Fwit.

shadowminister

In the less than 2 years you have been posting on this forum you have shown youself to be clueless.

Thanks ttbn for the thread- interesting new information. Kudos.

Pauliar,

In the 14 years I have been posting on this forum you have shown yourself to be an idiotic liar and a fraud.

shonky,

Checking your comment history it says less than 2 years. Do you have multiple nicks?

Pauliar,

I can't always tell whether you are pretending to be an ignorant prick or you aren't pretending.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/03/14/chinese-stock-crash-us-losses-top-11-trillion-as-beijings-russia-ties-spark-investor-concerns/?sh=46fd63873554

I see that the Chinese stock market is crashing and has lost nearly 50% over the last year or so. As overseas investors have lost a lot of money the US stock exchanges are cracking down on the dodgy Chinese accounting practices and will delist all Chinese shares unless the Chinese companies meet strict auditing requirements.

From above, foreign investment in China has dropped by nearly 95%

shonky,

Your first post on the Forum was 10/8/2020 and it was to me, less than 2 years ago. You are definitely delusional. And hostile as well.

Pauliar,

Since I have explained this to you before either you have dementia or are as usual deliberately being an obnoxious twat and a fraud.

I changed my handle from Shadow Minister to shadowminister and doing so created a new history that I have been unable to restore or access.

Have you yet been able to comprehend any of the links I posted for you?

Shonky,

Stock markets are only an indicator of the level of Capatalist greed. The American stock market was going gang busters until it crashed in 1929. Then the Capatalist will seek retribution for his lack of confidence on the working class.

Pauliar,

Where did you dig up this turd? Your little red book?

You conveniently forget that it was this capitalism that lifted 800 million Chinese out of poverty after socialism had starved more than 10 million to death.

What you see is the life savings of most of China going up in smoke due to the Chinese communist party's incompetence and meddling.