Josephus,
>Last year we were debating those that claim the Earth is getting hotter;
Why were you doing that? The evidence is clear!

>this year the facts seem to suggest the Earth is cooling
What facts? Did you miss the post where I pointed out this is from 2018 since which we've had 2 of the hottest 3 years on record?

Dear mhaze,

Oh, you were being that semantic. I see.

Usually when we talk about proxies for temperature or climate it might be something like ice cores not a direct measurement of heat transfer.

As I said in the beginning unless there is a phase shift involved there is a direct correlation between watts and temperature in this instance.

In this case it is the watts being produced which are the most fundamental unit as it is only the heat transfer into a measuring medium such as a mercury bulb which ultimately gives us our temperature reading.

So it seems we have chewed up a thousand useless words because of your little hangup.

Marvelous.

IT'S TOO LATE!

Aidan,

"from 2018 since which we've had 2 of the hottest 3 years on record?"

I repeat..."As to the question of where we're headed, I'd point out that the HadCRUT data set using HadSST4 data, probably the most respected of all the data sets, shows a declining temperature trend over the last half decade. Most of the data sets also show a decline."

I'd also point out that, given the margins of error involved, it could just as easily be argued that these post 2018 years don't even fall into the top ten category. Remember when NASA declared 2014 the hottest year ever only to have to walk that back when they admitted that, due to MoE, they could only be 34% sure of that claim.

SR,

When I first pointed out your error, I said "2.05e+10W isn't a temperature. Its a measure of power (hint: the W stands for Watts)".

The thousand words you talk about were you trying to find some way to deflect from said error.

mhaze,
Ah yes, the old deniers' trick of cherry picking evidence! 2016 was very very slightly warmer than 2020, and 2018 was significantly cooler, so cherry picking that half decade would show a cooling trend even though any longer analysis would show a warming trend.

>I'd also point out that, given the margins of error involved, it could just as easily be
>argued that these post 2018 years don't even fall into the top ten category.

Maybe there's a one in ten thousand chance they don't; it still doesn't override the warming trend!

>Remember when NASA declared 2014 the hottest year ever only to have to walk that
>back when they admitted that, due to MoE, they could only be 34% sure of that claim.

Hardly walking back; yes is possible that some prior year was hotter, but 2014 was more likely than any prior year to be the hottest on record. It's also possible, though unlikely, that 2014 wasn't cooler than every subsequent year. More likely, though still with <50% probability, is that it's 2020 rather than 2016 which is the hottest year yet.

BTW Steele's trivial error doesn't detract from his main point.

Aidan,

You pick out two years. I pick out 5 years. And I'm cherry-picking?

I fear you don't understand the nature of Margin of Error.When you see the values of average temperatures globally over a year, these are mere estimates within a range of values. Saying this year's estimate is higher than last year's estimate is neither here nor there. They all fall within the same relative range of values meaning that there is no conclusive evidence of warming over recent times.

Whatismore, given that the differences are so small, its mere sophistry to claim they mean something.

There is this misunderstanding abounding in the community that these are precise calculations. They are far from it and drawing conclusions on these estimates is fraught. Even if the numbers are vaguely accurate, the claim that temperatures have increased by 0.3c over the past 40 years doesn't mean much.

If one year is a tenth of a degree warmer than another, even if that were accurate, its a big yawn.

You make the same error that SR makes. Taking a proxy for temperature and then thinking that not only is the same thing but that it can be compared down to two decimal points.

When NASA said that they couldn't be certain that this year was warmer than that, it was because they are aware of the errors inherent in the data. If you were to keep that MoE in mind you'd be less inclined to assert that this or that year was the hottest.

Its much better to look at trends which ,over time, reduces or cancels out the MoE. The trick then becomes how long a trend to take. I prefer to take the last 12000 years, which shows that there's been a broad cooling trend since about 2000BC.