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The Forum > General Discussion > Electricity bill.

Electricity bill.

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The Problem with Solutions
No one seems to understand that fossil fuels are needed to construct the renewable infrastructure and very few seem to understand just how much solar/wind/batteries/hydro is needed to replace the present infrastructure. It is not just as simple as saying the present maximum demand is 1X gigawatts so we will install 1x gigawatts of wind and solar generation.

Before we go into that, fossil fuels are needed to produce the cement, steelwork, aluminium, copper, plastics fibreglass etc etc. Also they must be mined processed and manufactured into components. That is an enormous project on its own and at the same time you are trying to reduce emissions !
You cannot build such a system while at the same time reduce emissions.

However you have not taken into account that the sun does not always shine, there are cloudy days and the wind certainly does not always blow. The solution to that is you have to have other generating equipment elsewhere to pick up the wind and solar. Multiple sites spread over thousands of kilometres are needed.

Batteries are always suggested as the obvious backup sources and they are very useful for technical services in the network such as frequency control and instant availability if a large bank of cloud passes by.
However as the usual meaning of base load supply is concerned they are a mirage, for a reason that never gets mentioned. Except the MHR Craig Kelly spoke about it recently.
Take this scenario;
It is winter and the sun is setting at 4pm, around the same time as is usual in winter the wind is dropping, and commercial buildings are switching the lights off. Drivers are arriving home and putting their electric cars on charge, about 7kw each, the microwaves and ovens are cooking dinner and domestic water heating will switch on at off peak time.
The falling generation and rising demand requires the demand to passed to the batteries and all night they hold up the supply, heating water heaters, charging cars and supplying TV sets and air conditioner until all to bed.

Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 24 December 2020 1:02:40 PM
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Next morning switch on the jug, the toaster and as it is cold switch on the air conditioner. Just about then the sun comes up and the solar cells are producing about 30% of their maximum, the wind starts picking up and the day starts.
Now the batteries are discharged and the operators need to charge them for the next night in case it is another cold still night. The system has to find the about equivalent amount of power that is daytime demand. The system is flat out supplying the country there is no surplus that big !
Well next night hope the wind is blowing a gale, whoops not over 25 knots or they shut down or you face it with flat batteries.

However, what if the next morning was still and overcast.
Would not happen everywhere so the sites in remote areas will have to supply the large demand areas such as Sydney and Melbourne as well as their nearby loads.
Will they be able to recharge the batteries as well ?

Do you now see the problem ?
Will the whole system be affordable.
Key Alan B and thorium generation, and I think he has a point !
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 24 December 2020 1:05:15 PM
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Some people are just disconnecting from the grid completely because they are sick of the idiot electricity market and associated government red tape. High power appliances are problematic such as refrigerators and washing machines but solutions can be found. Some are perhaps attempting to mandate electric vehicles and force people back onto the grid due to the very high energy requirements. Perhaps electric vehicles are the cause of large increases in electricity costs. Strangely I've found that the connection costs are about $1 per day this means that there is a limit to how much you can control costs no matter how conscientious you might be with usage. At $400 for the connection cost per year you might soon be better off buying generation and storage systems that last 15 years.

See below- How often do you need to replace batteries in electric cars.
8 to 10 years for small cars
5 to 6 years for big cars

http://www.edfenergy.com/electric-cars/batteries
http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/renewable/the-afterlife-of-electric-vehicles-battery-recycling-and-repurposing/
http://drive-green.co.uk/ev-info/electric-car-battery-faq/
Posted by Canem Malum, Thursday, 24 December 2020 2:02:46 PM
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There are 20,000 electric cars in Australia right now.
So that is a peak demand if all start charging at 10pm the usual
off peak time would be about 50 Mwatt. However only some would need
a full charge. A friend of mine charges his car about twice a week
from a 10 amp GPO in his garage.
The average distance driven by all cars in Australia per day is 40km.
It will become a major factor when the numbers get a lot higher.
It will take a long time at the present rate although Norway has the
fastest uptake at 70% of all new car sales.
If only EVs by 2030 then who knows.
Even taking into account the cost of battery replacement the all up
cost of an electric car is cheaper than a petrol car PROVIDED you do a
substantial mileage each year, despite initial high cost.
Battery warranty is 8 years.
From figures I have seen people doing 50km each way each day are well
in front. Service costs are near zero. Tyres only running cost.
My friend whose car is nearly 8 years old has never had a service.

Lets face it oil fuels will end as the fracking oil declines with
the bankruptcy of the companies in that field if you pardon the pun.
Already Shell & BP want out.

I predict someone will now post "What happened to peak oil ?"
It happened in 2005, didn't you know ?
Posted by Bazz, Thursday, 24 December 2020 3:02:24 PM
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Batteries have a somewhat fixed number of recharges (need to be replaced every 100k-150k miles)- the no maintenance aspect is positive and could offset some of the costs- the price of new car battery packs is high I believe (Leaf is $5k Tesla $10k)- they also need to do a lot of work to re-engineer the car to support battery technology- I think that many people that use their cars for more than just carrying the shopping will be disappointed. Not sure how a Tesla would go towing a trailer or a boat. I suspect the resale value of vehicles will need to be adjusted to accommodate old batteries.

I still find it difficult to get over the fact that battery technology is low density energy technology by it's very nature and cannot compete with petrol for energy density- for this reason electric cars will likely be replaced very soon- by CO2 split petrol- those with petrol cars won't be affected in this scenario.

Electric motors however are much more efficient than ICE engines- although solar panel technology is not.

Despite the impression electric vehicles don't run on "free" electricity- the electricity still costs money- 30c per kilowatt hour.

The economic benefits of electric cars is still perhaps inconclusive.

At the end of the day it requires a minimum energy to drive around a one tonne vehicle whatever it's motive power.

Whatever technology wins out in the end will be interesting
Posted by Canem Malum, Thursday, 24 December 2020 9:55:34 PM
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Merry Christmas Canem.
Not sure what you mean by this;
replaced very soon- by CO2 split petrol- those with petrol cars won't be affected in this scenario.

I don't think you were talking of hybrids.
The only country that has made a go of tight oil is now up against it
as the costs of drilling and fracking are eating their sales.
Because of the financial difficulties Wall St has lost interest.
We have to face it as tight oil production declines it reveals how
conventional oil production has declined.
If fracking stops suddenly then we will be in real trouble.
In the US there is a company that takes the car battery and replaces
the failing cells. Have not heard of them for a while. Maybe the
exact fit cells are not available for the newer cars.

The relative efficiency of petrol and electric cars is interesting.
Some calculations show that mine (coal) to power station to battery
to wheels has less energy loss than well to refinery to service
station to engine to wheels. A large part of the loss is in heat
generated in the petrol engine.

However we go there will be major change as oil based products
decline.
The aviation industry will hang on as it has plenty of room to
increase its prices for a reduced clientele. Certainly we are in for
some changes in the energy system.
Aside from the vehicle area it seems to me that wind and solar with
or without batteries is a no goer if we want to use electricity as
we do now, heating and cooling our work places and homes, multistory
office blocks and housing, & public transport and private transport.
Where else can we get it at a price we can afford ?
I can't see a solution other than nuclear.
Posted by Bazz, Friday, 25 December 2020 8:47:38 AM
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