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The Forum > General Discussion > No Petrol Cars in UK by 2030

No Petrol Cars in UK by 2030

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Hasbeen your "Buy one if you like, but by 2030 it will be a useless ornament in your garage" comment wouldn't apply in my particular case because I have solar power. And since my car spends most of its time during the day (ie: daylight hours) in my garage at home the excess solar power I produce during the middle of the day would be sufficient to recharge it. Currently, it would cost me $0.07/kWh for the energy used to run an electric car since that is opportunity cost of charging a car instead of selling excess power that I generate at that flat rate to the grid like I currently do.

Indeed, the combination of the mass adoption of electric cars, domestic solar, bidirectional chargers (ie: electric car changing units that can supply power to the grid from the car's battery as well as draw power for recharging), internet controlled switching of the chargers and fine grained interval pricing of the buying/selling of power at the domestic production level gives rise to very interesting possibilities. With such technologies, which already exist, it would be possible to use a country's stock of electric vehicles as a gigantic battery for storing solar power to use at night or to boost supply during peak demand.
Posted by thinkabit, Thursday, 26 November 2020 5:11:45 AM
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At least they have stopped using the 'peak oil' lie that they've been using for decades. They are still lying about everything else, though.
Posted by ttbn, Thursday, 26 November 2020 12:50:08 PM
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thinkabit I can see you've been well brainwashed by some ratbag greenie mates.

I own solar panels too, the fool government effectively paid me to own some, others drive my river pump & keep my tractor battery charged. However I am not silly enough to believe any of them will be still working by 2030, or that replacements are likely to be economically available by them.

China has stopped buying our coal. If they stop buying our iron ore, likely, there will be no foreign exchange to pay for solar panels, or cars, electric or ICE. You won't need power anyway, there will be no TVs computers, mobile phones or a lot of other stuff we now import.
Posted by Hasbeen, Thursday, 26 November 2020 1:02:36 PM
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ttbn: You come across as someone who seems to think that EV's are a fantasy or myth- something that's promised but not likely to ever eventuate. Well, since the your original post was about the UK here is a link listing the EV's (both pure electric and plug-in hybrids) that are available for order TODAY in 2020. http://wattev2buy.com/uk-ev-market-price-list-electric-cars-uk. And Yes! That's 2020; not 2030, not 2025, not 2022, not 2021, but right now. As you can see there are plenty of them! Every major car manufacturer is in this list.

So EV's are reality! People can and do buy electric cars and manage to do all their driving with them. But the real important question about them is: Are they a good value proposition compared to internal combustion engine (ICE) cars or do people just buy them because it gives them some sort of eco-green warm and fuzzy feeling?

Well let's do some numbers to give an indication. I will be using Australian car prices from the internet and my own personal situation regarding kms driven/year and cost of power since I have these at hand. Our test case will be the base model Hyundai Kona Elite because this a small SUV suitable as a nice run-around which could appeal to a broad middle Australia demographic but most importantly it is available in both EV and ICE forms with hardly any difference between the two in terms of size, features and looks (except of course one has a electric motor while the other is petrol, consequently the weight and power outputs are a bit different and the ranges are quite differnt).
-> Kona 2 wheel drive petrol version: http://www.hyundai.com/au/en/cars/suvs/kona - power 110kW, torque 180Nm, energy consumption (in terms of petrol) is 7.2L/100km for the ADR81/02 combined average city/highway cycle test and the range I calculate to be about 700km since has a 50L tank.
--continued below --
Posted by thinkabit, Thursday, 26 November 2020 11:50:05 PM
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--from above --

-> Kona electric version: http://www.hyundai.com/au/en/cars/suvs/kona/kona-electric - has more power and torque with 150kW/395Nm however it weighs 400kg more, energy consumption is 131Wh/km - 153Wh/km (test standard dependent) with a corresponding range of 557km - 449kms. I will use 140Wh/km for the energy rate.

Now for the important prices and costs-

Up front cost:
- EV = $65887
- ICE = $34323
So the EV is about $30,000 more expensive up front.

Energy price:
- EV = let's say about $0.10/kWh if use own solar ($0.07/kWh opportunity cost plus I added $0.03 to cover the occasional use of grid power). But $0.24/kWh if I use grid power exclusively.
- ICE = let's say about $1.50/L for petrol

Annual Running Cost of Energy Consumed- assuming my normal average of about 15,000km per year (which I understand is above the Australian average of about 12,500km/year or about 35km/day):
- EV (if I use solar) = 15,000[km] * 140[Wh/km] / 1000[Wh/kWh] * 0.10[$/kWh] = $210/yr
- EV (if I use grid) = 15,000[km] * 140[Wh/km] / 1000[Wh/kWh] * 0.24[$/kWh] = $504/yr
- ICE = 15,000[km] * 7.2[L/100km] / 100[km/100km] * 1.5[$/L] = $1620/yr
So the EV costs me about $1400/yr less if I use solar and $1100 if I use grid when compared to the ICE version.

So assuming I owned the car for let's say 12 years then it would save about $15000 (roughly) in energy costs but when you add in the difference in the initial purchase price the ICE would be cheaper overall by $15,000 dollars due to the high initial cost. Or in other words, in this case, it would require the EV price to drop by about 1/4 of their current price before they make economic sense.
For electric cars in general, this is almost certainly going to happen over the next decade due to increased volume of production of the cars but also the increase in demand for batteries will lead to improvements in battery science/production.

-- continue below --
Posted by thinkabit, Thursday, 26 November 2020 11:53:18 PM
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--continued from above --
Just like all other new technologies they will become rapidly cheaper over time in real terms while they become widely adopted- eg: ICE cars, electricity, phones, computers, microwave cookers, etc. have all followed the same initial rapid drop in price.

In addition to my current personal use case above, it is interesting to ask how far per year do I have to drive for the EV to be cheaper than the ICE version over a projected 12 year life of the car? For the Kona above the answer is: 30,000km or about 82km/day.
A similar calculation for other vehicle models and circumstances is why taxis and light local delivery vehicles are now starting to be replaced by EV's since they are driven far enough per year to make them cheaper.

So hopefully you can now understand why what I said in my previous postings was quite correct.

As a final note: Of course the above was just a quick summary, in truth you have there are other issues that should be considered for a more thorough analysis-
- the cost of extra taxes/tax breaks (EV are expensive so maybe trigger the luxury car tax but maybe they're exempt or maybe the government even offers incentives- I dont' know.),
- any upfront cost that is recoverable by the eventual sale/trade-in of the car on disposal (I have no idea how much EV's depreciate- I suspect that it is highly dependent on the condition of the battery when you go to sell it),
- the change in energy prices over time (especially petrol for the ICE)
- service/maintenance expenses (the mechanical side of EV's are vastly simpler than ICE vehicles so maybe they are cheaper to maintain?)
- differences in insurance* (EV's are more expensive so they probably cost more to insure)
Posted by thinkabit, Thursday, 26 November 2020 11:58:45 PM
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