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The Forum > General Discussion > Climate Emergency

Climate Emergency

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Just [fair dinkum] been out in the garden, two liter bottle of water, no true
Trying to save a few flowers in pots and some spinach, love the green stuff
JOSEPHUS, ITS DRY OUT THERE
can you enter no rain in Coolongolook for two weeks
'What never heard of us? biggest little petrol stop on the highway
Posted by Belly, Sunday, 15 December 2019 2:56:52 PM
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Here are records from the 1800s not after the 1920s,
joannenova.com.au/2019/01/forgotten-history-50-degrees-everywhere-right-across-australia-in-the-1800s/?fbclid=IwAR0W2Jcg_se2u90iGevnvbJpZs38lr0PwGGtJvFKI5t78ZqzAamSxK_i9gY
Have a look at the town records throughout Australia in the 1890s.

Extreme heat in 1896: Panic stricken people fled the outback on special trains as hundreds die.
It is as if history is being erased. For all that we hear about recent record-breaking climate extremes, records that are equally extreme, and sometimes even more so, are ignored.
In January 1896 a savage blast “like a furnace” stretched across Australia from east to west and lasted for weeks. The death toll reached 437 people in the eastern states. Newspaper reports showed that in Bourke the heat approached 120°F (48.9°C) on three days (1)(2)(3). The maximum at or above 102 degrees F (38.9°C) for 24 days straight.
By Tuesday Jan 14, people were reported falling dead in the streets. Unable to sleep, people in Brewarrina walked the streets at night for hours, the thermometer recording 109F at midnight. Overnight, the temperature did not fall below 103°F. On Jan 18 in Wilcannia, five deaths were recorded in one day, the hospitals were overcrowded and reports said that “more deaths are hourly expected”. By January 24, in Bourke, many businesses had shut down (almost everything bar the hotels). Panic stricken Australians were fleeing to the hills in climate refugee trains.
It got hotter and hotter and the crowded trains ran on more days of the week…
Posted by Josephus, Sunday, 15 December 2019 8:50:33 PM
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Hi Josephus,
it sounds horrible! Truly disastrous, proving that Australia is a land of droughts and flooding rains and always was.

No one doubts horrible heatwaves have not hit the continent before.

But what made that drought so horrible? Did they have mains water pressure there yet? Modern technology? Maybe not. Maybe it felt worse than it was because they lacked certain modern tech that we take for granted.

Also note: actual BOM scientific measurements seem to date from 1910 afterwards. So while you might have a few scattered data points, you don't have a systematic review of temperatures across Australia.

Also note: have you compared their records from then to today? Have you seen the drought map?
RED = LOWEST RAINFALL ON RECORD! It looks like about 10 to 20% of the continent. LOWEST on record since 1910. Now there's a statement!
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/

We KNOW CO2 traps heat from repeatable, demonstrable physics experiments in labs about 3 decades BEFORE your Wilcannia story. We know the math of how much CO2 traps how much heat. We have pretty good climate sensitivity models as to how much the earth amplifies that 1.2 degrees of warming per doubling of CO2.

What do you find so hard about accepting any of this?
Posted by Max Green, Sunday, 15 December 2019 9:35:18 PM
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So Max spent two years telling us to 'Do the Math'. He spent two years telling us how the math was done by picking some mythical figure out of the sensitivity ranges. He spent two years telling us that McKibben had done the math. He spent two years telling us that it was sound and that we only had 565gt left to burn. He spent two years telling us he had a clue about what he was raving about. He spent two years telling us that anyone who didn't buy his fables was a fool.

And then....boom...he's finally forced to admit that there is no math. There never was any math. No one had ever done the math because it was not possible to do the math. Implicitly he admits that the stories abut how the math was done ("Bill McKibben did the math on the highest probability .....". ) were just figments of his imagination. Just fairy-tales he made up to try to hide the fact that he was about as wrong as its possible to be.

And at the end of all that, he blames me for asking him to prove his fairy-tales. Somehow I'm supposed to have known that his lies were lies and then not have asked him to justify his lies.

Dealing with a fool is one thing. Dealing with a fool prepared to straight-up create fairy-tales to hide their foolishness is quite another.
Posted by mhaze, Monday, 16 December 2019 5:02:56 AM
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Josephus you strengthen my sides views
Surely you understand? the broken records are records coldest warmest hottest in history?
It says extremes are now more common than ever before the long list of broken records OFTEN break a record set just years or months ago
Fact
UN meeting did not get much done , profit before planet won out
But we lost, humanity lost the ability to grow food in some parts of the world lost
Species lost some no longer can survive as their environment crashes
What are Koalas feeding on now? over two million hectares of dead forest?
Posted by Belly, Monday, 16 December 2019 6:07:11 AM
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MHAZE criticises the modern scientific method, especially if it involves computer models. It doesn't matter that the bridges he drives over, planes he flies on, medicines he might take and even the the internet he writes on all function because computer models first designed and tested them.

Why do computer models work so well? Maths. Physics input into the model as math. Parameters and feedbacks plugged in as math.

The computer models did the math.

For the record, MHAZE just calls all this 'fantasy'. There are various studies from various proxies from our deep climate past. Some rarer methods seem to have contradicted the vast majority of the studies which cluster around the 3 degree mark for climate sensitivity.

The verdict is in. 3 degrees. The scientists have done the math, via the computer models and proxies. Poor MHAZE, he had SUCH a bad case of Dunning-Kruger's he actually thought he'd spanked me and sent me packing. But now the more he denies they've done the math, the more ridiculous, stubborn and anti-science he looks!

Once again:-

"Here we present a new emergent constraint on ECS that yields a central estimate of 2.8 degrees Celsius with 66 per cent confidence limits (equivalent to the IPCC ‘likely’ range) of 2.2–3.4 degrees Celsius. Our approach is to focus on the variability of temperature about long-term historical warming, rather than on the warming trend itself." January 2018 http://www.nature.com/articles/nature25450

"RANGE, RANGE, RANGE" MHAZE shouts from the rooftops. And I'm just trying to get him to calm down and look at what that range is: a very pronounced bell curve with a HUGE middle section and very unlikely outer edges. But he's not man enough to admit it.

Then the models also indicate that anything over 1.5 degrees would be bad for our economic prosperity, subtract from that the known physics of the radiative forcing of the carbon to push us to 1.5 degrees, and you get today's climate clocks.

In other words, despite MHAZE running around screaming "RANGE" and "FANTASY" the experts HAVE done the math, and we should listen to them, not pissants.
Posted by Max Green, Monday, 16 December 2019 7:42:13 AM
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