Fester,
I think I see the source of the discrepancy: you're contriving the need for a constant output. If that were what's needed, the economic case for nuclear power would be much stronger.

But demand for electricity in Australia is far from flat: there's a peak in the evening, after which demand falls away sharply and remains low until another (smaller) peak in the morning. Demand is usually low in the afternoon because although consumption is high at that time of day, much of it is being supplied from rooftop solar instead.

The CSIRO report questions the the LCOE calculation basis, saying that as share of renewables rises, more and more firming capacity is needed. It also raises "very different climate policy risks" by various generators, to which a carbon tax should be applied.

So, CSIRO is effectively saying the cost of carbon-taxed, fossil-fueled firming should be included in LCOE calculations in the interim towards an anticipated attainment of 100% renewables firmed with storage. The supposed lower cost of renewables, from my reading, also doesn't mention RE certificate sales so presumably talks only about generation income to operators as being the only cost of renewables.

How Blakers Lu and Stock were given such unquestioning credence without a peer-reviewed paper reflects poorly on CSIRO, which now looks infected with "The Transition" group-think. Below are other non-peer-reviewed papers worth consulting:

http://static1.squarespace.com/static/58254e216a496325c2d90145/t/58b80ccd9de4bbe99bd309cb/1488456957086/Blakers+et+al+review.pdf

http://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2018/07/future-solar

Aidan,

I agree that there is variation in demand, but there is also a certain amount of power required around the clock, hence my costing challenge to you. As you would realise, the cost of such an endeavour would be many times that from coal, gas or nuclear.

You could build a few Chinese or South Korean nuclear plants for little more than the cost of coal, then you you could run your Haber ammonia plant profitably around the clock with a clear conscience. Without substantial nuclear, going CO2 free is economic suicide.

A new lurk by shameless rent-seekers and stupid politicians at an abandoned mine at Strathalbyn, SA, is to use electricity - from the grid! - to produce compressed air which will be stored in a “purpose-built underground cavern” to be kept at a constant pressure using “hydrostatic head from a water column”. It works a bit like pumped hydro according to the conman running the show. The “commercial demonstration” (only) has already conned the lame Marshall government out of $3 million. It will probably be a huge flop like Flannery's 'thermal rocks’’, another joke perpetrated on gullible South Australia.

The leading lunatics on unreliables, Germans, intend to phase out all coal mines within 19 years, and do the same with their remaining nuclear plants by by 2022. The only uproar after the frowsy frau's announcement came from ratbags claiming that the promised actions were not soon enough.