Paul,

For all your bluster you seem extremely ignorant of parliamentary processes. If MT resigns from parliament there will be a by-election and another liberal MP will be elected, especially given the ALP's and the greens growing antisemitism.

Shadow he can resign, effective immediately, and since there would be no pair for the seat of Wentworth (you don't know what that means look it up), Labor could bring on a no confidence vote in the intervening period between resignation and by-election, and oust the Mad Monks minority government. With MT resigning A no confidence vote would be strongly supported by the minors and independents, the vote would be interesting to say the least.

The Liberals would most likely retain the blue ribbon seat, but with a backlash from the voters, a swing in the order of 20% is possible,MT got 68% TPP. Malcolm is very popular in Edgecliff and Double Pay. Green vote in Wentworth about 20%. There would be no by-election, it would go to a general election.

Shadow, For all your bluster you ARE extremely ignorant of parliamentary processes.

Paul,

Yet another rookie error. A no-confidence vote requires a majority and if MT resigned the government would have 74 votes and the speaker whilst all other parties have 74 incl the independents. And if the speaker stepped down, a majority would be impossible.

As for Wentworth going to Labor with a 20% swing as Shorten promises higher taxes for business and the wealthy plus NSW Labor and the Greens lobbying against Israel in the most Jewish electorate, I guess that you have been smoking your socks again.

Dear Shadow Minister,

Weren't you the one who predicted a huge Tory win in
the UK elections and that Labor didn't stand a chance?

Foxy,

Don't put words in my mouth. The Tories won by a smaller margin, but they did not lose.

"My best guesstimate (with a fat margin of error) would be for the lead at the election being in the region of 10% with labour losing 20 seats." Considering that would only increase their lead by 3.5% that is a good margin but by no means massive and proportionally less than Abbott won by in 2013. The Tories lead instead dropped to about 3%

By comparison, the gap in Wentworth on a 2pp basis is 35% which is nearly 10 x the swing that Corbyn managed.

Dear Shadow Minister,

Actually the Tories did lose. They needed 326 seats to
form a majority government. The fact is they only managed to
win 318 seats, down by 12 and they will have to rely on the
Democratic Unionist Party DUP to get things done. If any of
the DUP'S 10 MPs don't support them they'll be in a mess.
Labor on the other hand won 262 seats - an increase of 30.

Predicting elections is a risky business at the best of times.