Is it already too late to save Australia from the effects of global warming? That seems to be the subtext of a recent New Scientist article titled "Australia - the continent that ran dry." (New Scientist, 16 June 2007, pp8-11)

See:

http://environment.newscientist.com/channel/earth/mg19426085.300-australia--the-continent-that-ran-dry.html;jsessionid=ILFEJJFFNBKK

The same edition also contains an editorial by Tim Flannery, professor of earth and life sciences at Macquarie University and 2007 Australian of the Year. The editorial is titled "Australia - not such a lucky country."

Quotes:

"….But by far the most dangerous trend is the decline in the flow of Australian rivers: it has fallen by around 70 per cent in recent decades, so dams no longer fill even when it does rain. …. I believe the first thing Australians need to do is to stop worrying about "the drought" - which is transient - and start talking about the new climate."

"While the populated east and south of Australia have parched, rainfall has increased in the north-west. ….models indicate that the increased rainfall is most likely caused by the Asian haze….This means that as Asia cleans up its air, Australia is likely to lose its northern rainfall…."

Some reality checks.

The PREPONDERANCE of evidence suggests that human-induced global warming is a real phenomenon. We'd be silly to ignore the RISK of a calamitous change in our climate.

The big emitters – China, Europe, India and North America – MAY cut back on greenhouse emissions IF they are convinced it is in THEIR interests. None of them are going to cancel a single coal-fired power station to save Bangladesh, Africa or Australia.

It may make you feel better to vent some spleen on Howard. But, in reality Australia is such a piffling player that it makes little difference what we do to cut emissions.

So what should we?

Should we devote more efforts to adapting to climate change than to fighting it?

Do we need to limit immigration because we may face water shortages?

Should we encourage our children to emigrate because Australia may become uninhabitable?

What?

"Is it already too late to save Australia from the effects of global warming?"
It has to be saved from the hordes of farmers first.

A supplemental question is this:

REALISTICALLY, what is the probability that the major emitters (China, Europe, India, North America) will PERSIST with steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions before catastrophe strikes Australia?

Steel, maybe we do need to cut back on agriculture? What other steps should we take?

if i may make a modest proposal?

i believe australia should have a population of 10 million or less.

but we have 20 million, rising, no politician dares say "enough", and the average ozzie suffers from cultural castration: the limit of their imagination is a fairy godmother in a position of power in canberra.

what to do?

send a copy of "soylent green" to your local pollie, with your approval for the demographic modulation therein.

Steven

“Should we devote more efforts to adapting to climate change than to fighting it?”

Absolutely.

“Do we need to limit immigration because we may face water shortages?”

Absolutely.

“Should we encourage our children to emigrate because Australia may become uninhabitable?”

No. But neither should we discourage emigration.

“REALISTICALLY, what is the probability that the major emitters (China, Europe, India, North America) will PERSIST with steps to reduce greenhouse gas emissions before catastrophe strikes Australia?”

I don't know. But the unknown factor is just what the effects of climate change will be, not whether the world can reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the necessary extent via good international relations and policy development, as we did with ozone depletion.

I have absolutely no doubt that we won't be able to achieve that. Steps to reduce CO2 emissions will steadily improve. But so will the rampant growth in the number of polluters, especially in China.

The only thing that is likely to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions is peak oil, ie the price and availability of oil. But there will still be coal.

It is beyond our control in Australia, or worldwide. It’s time to put 100% of our current climate change effort into developing a sustainable footing for our society and country.

The most important prerequisites are population stabilisation and an abandonment of the continuous growth paradigm.

steel, I don't understand your view on the hordes of farmers. Aren't you happy to have the cleanest, safest and arguably the cheapest food right here in Australia. Not impressed that agriculture provides 20% of our export income?
What threats do farmers pose?