Yes hasbeen, I know it well as I was on South Molle 85 to 87 myself and we found two methods of predicting the weather that worked equally well, the first was what is now BOM, the second, stick your head out the window. In fact the second option was usually the most reliable. I remember going to the reef one day on the Capricorn in what must have been 5 m seas. In fact I was in with the skier that day and he and I were the only two not sick. Funny thing is, the trip back a few hours latter it was a mill pond.

I have so many fond memories of SM, from carrying big Arty home from the staff bar in the front end loader, or seeing old Dawn crack a whammy cause someone changed the menu board, hitting golf balls on to Daydream of the frot deck of the Islander, or taking the Caricorn to Bowen play cricket with Sauly and crew.

From memory you guys used to take the Capricorn and the Reef into Long Island Sound during cyclones.
It was a great life and what they got away with with the stores would see them in jail today.

But, because the BOM are so unreliable it's hard to take anything they say for granted, especially when so much is as stake, both environementally and financially. Get it wrong and we could well waste so much money that we could not recover. There are simply too many clonficting opinions from experts.

Would love to catch up one day to talk about the old days on South Molle. I live in the Redcliffe area.

Dear Hasbeen,

That was certainly a long winded way to make your point but story telling like that is an Australian art form so it is hard to begrudge it.

I will try and keep my tale a little more succinct.

I lived in Darwin for nearly 3 years before Tracy. Each wet we would always get one or two cyclone warnings. My father, who worked on the rigs and knew a bit about weather especially manning craft that could not run or shelter from its worst, would always take precautions in line with the warnings. Many of our neighbours would laugh it off. I clearly remember disparaging remarks about the Weather Bureau's record and the utter disregard for alerts. Two of them lost their lives on Christmas night 1974 and one woman was severely psychologically scarred from spending that night alone in her toilet. We met her in New Zealand many years later and she was still having horrific panic attacks at Christmas.

Weather is unpredictable and the Bureau is on a hiding to nothing from grumpy cusses like you when it issues its warnings. Whinge away when it doesn't happen but scream to high heaven if an event is worse than predicted or a warning not given.

These are hard working people who care about doing a profession job knowing lives may well depend on their forecasts. They deserve our gratitude not the derision sad sacks like you want to sling their way.

ConservativeHippie,

You refer to how climate change pales in comparison to population growth and with problems our grandchildren face. Regrettably you seem to think I don't regard the environment that humans live in as an issue.

In fact if people view the youtube on the link you put in - including a National Press Club presentation by Clive Palmer (2014) re the repeal of the carbon tax, he says: "We want to claim a better future for our children." In what way Mr Palmer - so they can vote for your party at the next election? Too many people today are not concerned about the impacts of climate change - and the damage humans are causing to the environment in general.

The report, I referred to is a joint report by the BOM and the CSIRO - so there is a higher level of credibility as a result and is very detailed. I've downloaded and started to read the document. Climate change has occurred on earth due to natural causes, however, on the basis of considerable evidence and strong evidence in the area of climate science research, changes observed over the past few decades show impacts are mainly caused by human activity.

Climate change has arisen from combustion of fossil fuels (known as hydrocarbon fuels) and land change use. These alter the Radiative Balance of the earth, by changing atmospheric compositions, enhancing the natural greenhouse effect, or by changing the reflectivity of the earth's surface or atmosphere.

Activities that contribute to an enhancement of the natural greenhouse effect are:

Combustion of fossil fuels, which releases greenhouse gases, clearing of forests, which releases carbon dioxide through increased biomass decay, deforestation, soil tillage and land degradation, which releases carbon from the land system and reduces its capacity to absorb and store carbon.

http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/Browse_by_Topic/ClimateChange/whyClimate/human

As I put it when we have so many "free" experts in science, why bother to employ scientists at all? The government can't keep denying science forever - they are running out of fresh air.

Steele my problem was because I listened to the BOM, not disregarded it.

If they can get a 48 hour warning wrong by 38 hours, it is fair to say they are about as useful as tits on a bull. They definitely should err to the side of caution, not advise no problem & be wrong

I agree many people are "bloody idiots" when it comes to cyclones. I used to get annoyed at people who wanted to experience one. Yes most are not really dangerous, but about 20% are going to kill someone.

With the satellite images they had in the 80s it is actually unforgivable to get it so wrong. Fortunately we can now pull them up ourselves, & do our own tracking.

Incidentally that little story was done for another site that asked for it.

Rehctub I would love to get together. I emailed Graham a couple of years back asking him to give you my email address, but nothing happened. You try, perhaps you will have more success.

I'm down Beaudesert way. I don't get "UP NORTH" too often, but I could make an exception.

No worries hasbeen, I will email Graham.

The island is closed now,Only open to groups, so too is Linderman, although it's about to be leveled and rebuilt by the Chinese. My two years on the island hold some of my fondest memories, from big Arty wobbling down the staff area with the dirts on when someone stuffed up, to Terry the engineer going off when the generator was playing up, and who will ever forget the yachties with their tenders hanging in the breeze off the jetty when the tide went out. So much to talk about, we have to catch up.

So Nathan, from your post history I'm assuming you're quite young.

As kid growing up in the 60's - 70's, we thought nothing of burning off, or chopping down trees, or even killing birds, fish and the likes of Sting Rays just fir something to do. In fact I don't even think the word environment was mentioned throughout my entire schooling life, although I was no scholar either.

Factories would pump their raw liquid waste into rivers and streams, and a chemical spill was seen as waste, not an environmental problem. My generation changed that.

Nowadays we think before we chop down a tree, or kill anything just for something to do. We have also learned to recycle our rubbish with some degree of success and implemented laws that make it unlawful to dump commercial and toxic waste willy nilly, a practice that was common in the 70's and 80's.

The point is that people from my generation have been environmentally conscious fior many years now so perhaps rather than preach to the converted, young ones should pick up the can and run with it, take it to the next level to some degree, but to keep suggesting people of my generation don't care is just not correct.

We've done our bit, which has seen younger ones inherit a much healthier environment than we as kids did, so I'm more than happy to hand over the baton when ever you're ready.

So good luck with it!

Tropical cyclones have historically had a reputation for being unpredictable. Much effort has been dedicated to improving the forecasting skill in both location and intensity. The Bureau of Meteorology routinely issues forecasts of cyclone location and intensity at 12, 24 and 48 hour time-steps. All official forecasts are verified by comparison with the best track, the official estimate of the location and intensity of a tropical cyclone. A best track is prepared for every tropical cyclone, after the fact, using all available data.

Cyclones vary considerably in their predictability. Some exhibit rapid changes in intensity or change course, speed up or slow down, primarily in response to changes in the surrounding environment. Cyclone Lena (1993), for example, was moving to the west but made a U-turn and returned close to its original path. The 24-hour forecast error for Lena was 258 km, more than double the 1999/2000 - 2003/04 average. Cyclone Gwenda (1999) intensified from a category 2 to category 5 cyclone in 24 hours but subsequently weakened from category 5 to category 2 in less than 24 hours before crossing the coast a few hours later. Others follow a steadier course and more even development cycle such as Vance (1999) making forecasts considerably easier. Also cyclones at the category 1 stage are typically difficult to locate as the centre may not be apparent from satellite imagery, compared to stronger systems that have a well-defined eye. Those systems that markedly change their course or intensity close to the coast present the greatest challenge to forecasters and decision-makers in the community. Community awareness is much higher when a cyclone develops well offshore prior to crossing compared to one that rapidly develops near the coast.

From the BOM itself.