Ebola:
Hypothesis: Taking into consideration all the known factors such as geography, history, culture, education, and medical, that there exists a point where Ebola infection achieves "critical mass" in Africa.
The point where there is literally nothing short of nuclear strikes that can be done to stop it becoming a virtual African pandemic.
Questions:
Do you think this is valid?
If so, what or when do you think such a critical mass might be?
What do you think might/could/should/WILL then be done?

I believe that it probably does exist, but that they're not close to it yet.
That it will one day occur I consider almost inevitable but wouldn't dare put a timeline to that.
I think the ultimate reaction would be an attempt at the total isolation of Africa, a completely futile exercise but the only politically acceptable one.
I don't believe Ebola is any real threat to Australia, or the West in general, it may well appear but would be effectively dealt with before it got more than a toe-hold at best.
Asia is a different question altogether, the sub-Continent in particular.
Some Sth American nations might also have trouble with it but they tend to be casually ruthless when they want to be so it would only be temporary.
The Middle East? That one I wouldn't care to guess, although, like Sth America, I suspect they'd deal with it eventually.

One thing about the current outbreak which did raise a question in my mind was this:

The news reports are telling us about countries who have sealed their borders to other countries--as in, no one from the excluded country is permitted to cross the border.I wonder whether modern day Oz, cowered and emasculated as it is by the PC and we-owe-the-world crowds, would ever be able to do the same.

I seem to recall that suggestions that we move decisively to stop persons from PNG --who were often carriers of TB --dropping in unannounced to nth QLD clinics to avail of cheap/free treatment in Oz were greeted with cries of shame, shame. shame or the like.

How would we go if faced by a Ebola outbreak in PNG or Indonesia?

Just like all recent pandemic infections, I would suggest scientists would come up with a mass immunization program to contain the infection in one area before it spread too far.

They already have cured some doctors with Ebola, so it is only a matter of time before mass-produced effective medicines are available.

It is in ours, and other large countries interests, to send medical help to these war-torn, 3rd world areas so we can fight this sort of infection before it gets to us.

The mad thought about dropping a nuclear bomb on Africa would lead to worldwide radiation fallout problems that would make the Ebola virus seem weak in comparison.

Leave the solution to the medical scientists and personnel ......

Suseonline,

You are upbeat but your medical advice is ill-advised and dangerous. Since you often say you are a community nurse you should be very conservative and reserved in proffering advice outside of that approved by the Department of Health. -Simply cite the contact.

You imply that a vaccine is imminent, but doctors don't even understand the nature of the disease as yet nor how it is getting across from animals to humans. What is happening is that experimental drugs are being applied in a circumstance of known certainty of death. Those are not vaccines and it is possible that it is the standard treatment fro medical emergencies of keeping the patient hydrated and so on that is resulting in the odd (and it is odd) continuation of life.

The first concern with infectious disease is to contain it is it not? You wouldn't be allowing anyone with measles on aircraft, or to wander abroad would you? Governments are advising against travel to known and suspected geographical areas of possible infection.

Governments are trying to reduce the panic that is already causing a flood of refugees. Keep that in mind.

What if the disease becomes established in our bat population, where it could never be eradicated?

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/561941/20140806/ebola-outbreak-out-control-video-bats-virus.htm

and this,

<Nipah virus next flying fox risk after Hendra
SEPTEMBER13,2013
A DEADLY disease closely related to Hendra virus with "pandemic potential" could enter Australia via fruit bats, new research has found.

The Nipah virus, which has not yet been found in Australia, has wrought havoc across Asia, killing scores of people and forcing mass culls of pigs.

An outbreak in Malaysia in 1999 caused the death of 106 people of 265 infected, and led to more than one million pigs being culled.

The killer virus could enter Australia via fruit bats flying across the Torres Strait, a study led by Dr Andrew Breed from the University of Queensland has found.
..
"..both Hendra and Nipah virus are worrying because they have high mortality rates and are not well understood," he said.>
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/nipah-virus-next-flying-fox-risk-after-hendra/story-fnihsrf2-1226718059582

OTB, where did I give 'advice'?
I just gave my opinion as a contributor to this forum, just like you did.
I realise the general idea behind some comments on this subject are that we should shut Africa down forever.......just in case.

All vaccines and medications have to be tested on humans at some stage of their development , so I would imagine that the successful treatments of the few who received them for this virus would be a good indication of what lies ahead.

I watched a program on the Ebola epidemic on one of the news channels on Foxtel, which had a doctor working in the area in Africa discussing this issue.
I can't remember the channel, so can't site my 'sources', but then I am not saying anything specific about the treatments anyway.

This doctor could have it wrong of course, and you, being our resident know-it-all , could know better.....

Bruce, its a brutal disease but my impression is that in its current form not to bad to contain. Avoid contact with body fluids from anybody having flu like symptoms and a big start is made. In very heavily populated and very poor areas that may be easier said than done.

I'm more concerned about the form some of those diseases take if they mutate to a point where they can transmit via airborn particles. Hendra with its mortality rate would be a very different thing if itnwas more easily tansmitted.

As for treatment, no medical expertise but I'm geting the impression from the little I've seen is that relative health before infection combined with good fluids management while sick might be whats making the difference with ebola. I doubt very much that the sample sizes involved with the use of the drugs has been big enough to give any indicatiin yet of success or otherwise. Some who have had the drugs have lived, some have not. Some who have had the drugs have been flown to western hospitals with the best support available, if my earlier point has any truth to it then those people should have by far the best chance available.

R0bert