‘morning Poirot,

Nice footwork Poirot. So “You Think You Can Dance”?

We all note that you didn’t acknowledge my statement that this was in fact Swan’s MYEFO that was assessed by the IMF?

Instead you did the old Ah but, yeh but, no but, well but!

It doesn’t matter if the SMH accused Joe of cooking the books because that was from the SMH and they don’t get it either, are you now trying to blame the SMH for telling porkies to you?

The fact remains that your IMF quote was based on Swan’s last MYEFO. So who’s bubble just got popped Poirot?

spindoc,

Pull the other one, the IMF were looking at what's happened in the last six months.

From AFR - "Australia has posted the fastest budget deterioration over the past six months of any of the world’s 29 most advanced economies tracked by the International Monetary Fund."

Joe hockey has presided over the fastest budget deterioration anywhere in the advanced world. The report shows the effect of Mr Hockey doubling the budget deficit, adding $68 billion over the forward estimates in MYEFO.

And if you really wish to grasp the deception bandied around by our esteemed Treasurer and his MSM minions, then you might like to take on board his and their recent sleight-of-hand passed off in the media as a "Treasury Analysis", a paper full of doom and gloom, prepared by "his" Media Adviser, Gemma Daley.

It wasn't a "Treasury Analysis" at all.

It was more of Hockey's spin paving the way for Hockey's budget.

Poirot,

Pascoe, “what’s with the International Monetary Fund publishing an out-of-date forecast for the Australian economy?”

“As it was summarised by the AFR, the IMF officially reckons the Australian “economy is likely to remain in the doldrums this year and next” with GDP growth of 2.6 per cent in 2014 and 2.7 per cent in 2015, according to the forecasts released on Tuesday night.

Excuse me – the Australian economy is in the doldrums? That’s not what the Australian Bureau of Statistics is saying. Yet the IMF report was dutifully and widely reported as if it was credible news.

The IMF view is pretty much in line with the doom-laden forecasts of Treasury’s mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO) way back in early December.

Since the MYEFO show, our economic indicators have been overwhelmingly on the positive side with a very good chance that the 2013-14 financial year will show trend growth or better – an extraordinary achievement.”

Like I said, the IMF used the old Swan MYEFO as their base line, it’s out of date until the next budget.

Try again Poirot.

If it was not for Hockeys spending we would be 64.4 billion better off.
Our GDP has gained 26 billion in six months but they have spent 64.4 B.
That is gigantic spending in six months. Our gains in GDP are going nowhere.

spindoc,

"Try again Poirot."

Okey-dokey...how's this...

Pascoe - "It's getting harder and harder for the Treasurer and Minister for Gloom, Joe Hockey, to keep faking it. No matter how much he scowls, the evidence keeps mounting that his MYEFO (mid-year economic and fiscal outlook) forecasts were a crock.

The latest exhibits for the defence of the Australian economy are today's building approvals and balance of payments numbers. Our net goods and services surplus soared 30 per cent to $10.75 billion in the December quarter. Dwelling unit approvals in January rose by 1.3 per cent in trend terms and 6.8 per cent seasonally adjusted over the previous month to be ahead a whopping 28 and 35 per cent respectively over the year.

And these are just the latest numbers showing that the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook was overly pessimistic. The reporting season showed earnings up nicely, government revenue is growing more than expected and tomorrow's national accounts should show a good rise in labour productivity that is likely to be up by more again next quarter.

So where's the "budget crisis" Hockey was sprouting last May, or the more general "budget emergency" that has become a government catch cry? It doesn't exist as advertised."

http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/on-the-budget-and-the-economy-joe-hockey-is-faking-it-20140304-341qf.html

Hockey is continually talking down the healthy economy Labor left in place (while ratcheting up the deficit which the IMF was tracking)...strange shonk, he is.

How's that?

Positive economic data upsets Hockey's doom and gloom budget narrative
The GDP figures showed annual productivity rose 1.7% in trend terms – reversing a mild decline over the past 12 months. But even better, looking over a longer term, which is much better at gauging the state of productivity as it can bounce up and down a fair bit, five yearly productivity growth is at its highest point since 2005.
Remember when the Fair Work Act was going to kill productivity due to excessive regulation and inflexibility? Yeah, relegate that prediction to the same bin as the wages boom.
Today’s figures show nominal GDP growing annually by 4.4% in trend terms and 4.8% seasonally adjusted. At the current rate, nominal GDP looks good to be at least one percentage point higher than predicted in the Myefo. That will lead to a much better tax revenue – especially when you consider private corporation profits rose 2.8% in the past 12 months – the best result since 2011.