You get war over there, but it won't be confined to there there will be shootouts and bombings around the world. There are both sides of religion here as well.

Hi Foxy,

Many thanks for the link to the Forbes publication, it pretty well endorses my assessment of Jan 4 on this thread.

On indulgence I’d like to extend my assessment to look further at the geo-political and military implications of radicalization of the Middle East. This of course is based upon my earlier presumption that the West can now disengage at will.

As I see it there are only four players remaining in the ME. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel and Iran. This is because they are the only remaining countries that are “governed” and as such they are the only States that can make strategic or tactical political decisions.

Syria cannot, nor can Lebanon, Iraq, Palestine, Egypt, Afghanistan, Emirates or most of the North African States from Somalia right through to Mauritania.

If we are correct on this, the only high level dynamics to consider are those between the four key States.

Israel can undoubtedly call upon support of almost any description from the West, possibly NATO but nothing from the UN.

Saudi Arabia is aligned with the West but exists in a state of schizophrenia. On the one hand it is a recipient of Western military support with US bases and is a major trading partner of the West. On the other hand it is “home base” for one of the harshest Islamic regimes under a “benevolent dictatorship”.

Jordan is “piggy in the middle” and home to a large Palestinian population, is weak politically and militarily.

Iran is not aligned with the other three major players and is now isolated from ME politics, but is strongly aligned with many of the radicalized groups at conflict throughout other Arab nations. Iran has only one role and that is to use “aligned” Jihadist groups to stir the pot within already failed States.

Russia or China could move in to claim the resources and regime support however, it remains doubtful if Russia in particular has the stomach for opening up more conflict fronts with Islamic Jihadists, it has more than enough on its plate with Chechnya et al.

Cont’d

Cont’d

Serious intervention would be particularly difficult for Russia for two other reasons. One that the ME now has less strategic energy security value and it would be hard Politically to revisit the Afghanistan debacle.

This leaves the West free to disengage at almost any level at a time of its choice. The failed and conflicted States can get on with the annihilation of their nations and their populations.

Those who wanted the West in general and the USA in particular out of the ME can reap what they have sewn.

If push comes to shove with Iran, which I cannot see happening. Iran will face the channeling of western military might through both Saudi Arabia and Israel. The US has an abundance of hi tech standoff and drone technology to eliminate every shred of Iranian Air Defense systems, fast patrol boats and Navy who are fish in a barrel (Gulf). Leaving the Israelis to take out strategic systems and mop up the bits with Saudi Arabia. The two Carrier Squadrons thy have there would do nicely.

Ah but what about nuclear weapons?

As we saw in the “Cold War”, nuclear weapons have only deterrent value. Anyone, even terrorists, know that by removing the deterrent by actually using nuclear weapons, everything they have ever fought for will end. There is no negotiation value in the loss of an entire nation.

By having Iran on a tight enough leash on the development of their nuclear capability, neither the West nor Russia will ever allow that capability to go beyond what they (or at least Israel) can take out immediately.

In such an event, Israel would occupy the Golan Heights, Southern Lebanon, Sinai Peninsula, much of Jordan the West Bank and Gaza. The rationale would be an exclusion zone to “contain” the radicalized warring neighbors within their chosen boarders. The Palestinians would be subsumed into the Israeli State, get educated, have jobs and become ethnic citizens as are many Palestinians living in Israel already.

If deemed strategically prudent, the Suez Canal would be quarantined and Egypt could do nothing about it.

SPQR, you are not seriously proposing that Bush, Blair and our very own 'Traky-Dacks' Howard could in some way be capable of rational thought processes, are you? Remember George said this;

"I'm telling you there's an enemy that would like to attack America, Americans, again. There just is. That's the reality of the world. And I wish him all the very best." --George W. Bush, Washington, D.C., Jan. 12, 2009.

and he was seen as the leader of the bunch, speaks volumes for mental capacity of Blair and Howard.

579: There are both sides of religion here as well.

For my mind, if they want to go over & fight, all effort should be made to assist their going. Of course, then they should never be allowed back, should they survive.

Any of these people caught creating or advocating violence in Australia should be shipped to the ME with their families also. No trial.

I advocate a halt to all Muslim immigrants, no matter how they get here, until the War is completely over.

Dear spindoc,

Thanks for your astute comments and for
providing such an indepth assessment.
I also agree with your take on Russia having enough
on it's plate. A few years ago I purchased the book,
"Russia's Islamic Threat," by Gordon M. Hahn, published
by Yale University Press in 2007. As Barry Rubin,
Director, Global Research in International Affairs Center
stated:

"It's a truly remarkable
book about one of the world' most dramatic, bloodiest,
and least known conflicts. The book explores how
Russia became bogged down in a war over controlling its
Muslim Turkic region of Chechnya. It tells the
astonishing story of a battle truly symbolic of current
world crises: a struggle pitting Islamism, Nationalism, the
remnants of Comunism, and the modern nation-state against
each other."

Godron Hahn cuts through the maze of these
complex issues to tell a fascinating story.
Yet for a variety of reasons, very little work on this
subject has appeared in English