The Forum > General Discussion > Jihadi Surge
Jihadi Surge
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The ME has always been a source of tragedy and so it continues. The changes for the worse we are now seeing are I think, recognition that the entire geo-politics of this region have changed.
IMHO, the intervention in the ME by the “Coalition of the Willing” was strategic and not tactical. By that I mean the western developed nations were dependent upon ME stability to keep oil supply lines flowing. They had to delay the consolidation by radicals until such times as energy security alternatives could be brought on stream.
The US now enjoys surplus crude and coal to sell and seems likely to exceed Saudi crude oil production by 2018. Since then the North Dakota field has been also estimated as the biggest oil find in 50 years, 85% of production is crude and 15% is gas. The USA already enjoys 60% lower energy costs that the EU and the UK has issued 176 Fracking licenses in the last month.
Russia and China have both signed to explore Pre-Salt off-shore reserves with South American Nations. In addition, 21% of all fossil fuel mergers and acquisitions internationally in the nine months to October 2013 were by China.
As the shackles of CAGW are cast off, the developed world has gone fossil fuel berserk. Germany has already increased coal consumption by 17% p a, and announced 9 new coal fired power stations, three of which will burn Lignite!
This in my view signals that the ME has already lost its tactical energy advantage and all the signs are that the West can now disengage at will. Tragically this is likely to see the ME descend into anarchy with absolutely no hope of western intervention.
There are now very few issues in the ME that the west will engage in, economically, militarily or in terms of social justice and equity,
Without western support and the evolving multi-sectarian conflicts, I think the western strategy will be restricted to containment.