The uptake for small business, that's those coming forward to take place of those who have closed, is down by a staggering 95% since labor came to power in 07.

Almost 250,000 small business jobs have been lost.

This was as clear as the nose on your face, or at least my face, as I knew what small business wanted/needed, and it wasn't taking an axe to IR as labor did, but I was once again dismissed, told I was over reacting, and not to worry, as there are always people there to step up and take the place of those who close.

Well, I hate to say it, but I told you so.

Just remember one very important fact.

Most small businesses employ people, as opposed to most big businesses who all to often only employ numbers.

Labor can't be blamed fully for small business closures because it is statistically a very high percentage of small businesses DO close because of not doing due diligence for the business in the first place.

Not sticking up for the totally incompetent Government but this one has 2 sides to it.

And where are those 250,000 lost jobs . They are not in the unemployment figures.
I think butch is confusing online shopping with stores closing.
We have an online bulk butcher advertising here.

Unemployment figures are cooked.If you work a couple of hrs per week,you don't get defined as unemployed.

Cooked indeed!

I believe it was the Howard government which came up with that particularly delectable recipe - and it proved so popular that it's still on the menu.

It's nott so much the closures, or even the loss of jobs that I refer to, rather, it's the fact that the void is not being filled.

Small business is simply far too risky now, and that's a damned shame, as they are huge sponsors of localized events and the every back bome of many smaller communities, communities that will most likely be ghoast towns once mining has moved on.

As for unemployment, it's actually 1 hour per week, and even covers unpaid work.

Yes it was a Howard doozy, but it needs to be changed as anyone who truely believes we have 5% unemployment, is easily miss led.

No one can survive on a few hours a week, so they must be registered as unemployed and receiving benefits. Like a lot of small business receive benefits.
You can't have full time unemployed and half time unemployed.
Some only want a few hours a week. with-out being registered.
Figure fudging would not work.
With more and more online shopping it will take its toll, strip shopping will probably disappear. It's just an adjustment of the times.
I have been an online banker for 17 years.
The goal posts will continue to move.

The goal posts will continue to move

Yes 579, they will, but then, so will our population.

So where do you propose the jobs will come from?

Mining is retracting, so too small business.

The likes of Ford, Qantas and NSW rail are all shedding staff.

Small retailers have been over powered by the big two, while governments have simply sat back and watched.

You can now buy cloths very cheap in places like K Mart, who by the way, are also owned by Coles.

Quite simply, without confidence, small business will not prosper and the consequences of that could be horrific.

Labor have stripped all confidence from small business, with their one size fits all IR failure.

I do not know how you can blame Labor for lack of confidence. The world is suffering from a lack of confidence.
The more population will mean more online shops. Business is going through change, as happens from time to time. GMH is putting in robots, for car assembly.
Change has happened since the cave man. We still all survive.
The world will always need iron ore.
Online shopping is a smash hit, you don't have to fight for a car park.
Shopping malls will continue to expand, and strip shopping will demise.
You can't go into small business and expect to make a fortune.
The public will decide where they go to shop. And it is far easier to do your shopping in the one place. Without having to shift your car.
Job vacancies and unemployment are in good shape.
Expected 5.75 % mid 2013

I've found that in my line of work, which can be described loosely as "Handyman" my colleague and I usually get the job ahed of big maintenance firms simply on price, for smaller jobs we're usually about 1/2 the price of the big outfits even though we are at the upper end of the price range ourselves. I think that's they key here, competition, my wife is in the same position, she does freelance project management work and short term contracts in the public infrastructure sector and she's taking work away from big firms or accepting their overflow when she's not busy. I think what I'm getting at is that is that small business is changing to a more ad-hoc or collaborative mode of operation where groups of sole traders or family firms will work together on a short term basis rather than the static, bricks and mortar model of the past. The set up costs of a tech heavy business such as my wife's are also insignificant, I think she's spent something like $4,000 on software, a second hand Mac, a smartphone and a decent printer, with Skype and E-mail she rarely has to leave the front room, whereas 20 years ago she'd have needed tens of thousands of dollars worth of gear and an office space to put it all in

While I tend to agree with you Jay, where does that leave us, as SB has always been our largest employer.

579, I do blame labor for loss in confidence, as it is they who took a big stick to IR which put a wall between employees and employers.

Many who were very happy with the previous arrangements can't grasp the fact that labor have come along and changed a perfectly good working arrangement.

I've seen it before, when labor took an axe to IR back in the early 90's, then, once JHoward won his second term, business regain confidence and business boomed.

It was no coincidence that confidence went south again once labor took their big stick approach to IR.

History has a way of repeating itself, but it's a long road back this time, as I doing small business will recover from this hit.

As far as shopping malls go, they will fail once the big two get gold lotto and the news agents fail.

Loose them, and we loose the centre.

Yeah Rechtub,
I prospered under Howard too but being a lover of peace I was a nervous wreck, the emotional damage that administration (in concert with One Nation) did to the nation wasn't worth the extra few dollars. It's actually funny to note the lack of real political biffo in an age when all candidates are viewed with utter contempt by the man on the street and the parties are universally awful, this should be a cause that'd get boots on the street but who is offering a way forward for the independant operator?.

Butcher is correct given the number of new business registrations has plummeted....not talking about failed in the first year efforts,….. it is not even worth the venture it seems.

Arjay is correct regarding the massaged unemployment stats and Poirot is right in painting the devoid of reality stats having their genesis in the Coalitions spin history.

But 579 is simply implausible….no reality there.

Just one comment about the unemployment figures.

Given the vast majority of households are supported by two pay packets, when one goes there is no government assistance or recognition in the stats because you can't get the dole if your spouse is still working. There are tens of thousands in that situation.

What Arjay said doesn't make sense. A couple of hours a week and you are classed as employed.
Does that mean they do not get top up money from the dole.
Or does that mean they do not get any assistance at all.
Explain your self.

579, to my knowledge the unemployment numbers are calculated from those enrolled as unemployed, then, if any work has been performed during a cycle, then these are considered employed.

As others say, there are many who have lost their jobs, or, they are between jobs who are not considered unemployed.

The system is flawed, however if you choose to accept the numbers this system provides, then by all means, keep dreaming.

The other area of concern is, if we do have low unemployment, as you say, which means pretty much anyone wanting a jobs has one, how then do you explain the reason why so many of these people are doing it so tough at the present moment.

Persons that are registered and do paid work, have their dole reduced a percentage of the earnings. That does not make them employed.
Small business that does not make ends meet get a top up from centerlink.
Redundancy packages have to be used before you get the dole.
Any one doing it tough with low interest rates, have overcommitted themselves.

Any one doing it tough with low interest rates, have overcommitted themselves.

This comment is proof you have no idea how the real world works.

For starters, low interest rates only benefit those who own houses and, given so many rent, how do you expalain thier situations.

I don't know where you live, or where you get your opinions on our present situation, but may I suggest you take a good hard look around and you just may see what most others see.

Some people are even having to go bankrupt as they simply can't afford their medical bills, either because they can't afford insurance, or, the insurance they have does not cover their illness.

Now in a country like Australia, that's an utter disgrace, and if this mob stay in control it will only get worse.

BTW, I will bet not one of those going bankrupt arrived on a leaky boat recently.

Butch what you are saying is people are not being paid enough. They can't make ends meet, bankruptcies, medical insurance.
I say some people just can not budget, or are not being paid enough.
People relying on two pay packs, have no idea of economics. That shows no matter how much they have they continue to overcommit themselves.
No matter what the situation, some were destined to fail, for no other reason than they can not control basic economics.

A few points;
In the US many shopping malls are closing, the tenants having gone broke.
There is even a web site about closed malls.

In the local centre there has been a small turnover, but it does seem to have increased.
The reason people have over committed is because the government insists
that lending authorities lend on two incomes.
Therefore developers produce houses that need two incomes to pay for them.
The winding back of small business means many of those 2nd incomes disappear.

Government services must decrease as the interest bill increases.
Our government dept is some $170 billion I believe.
However there are outstanding Aus Govt bonds of $250 billion.
These bonds are held by someone and they will want their interest
and their money back at some time.
This an overhead on Aus.com.au and we must suspend spending in other
areas until we can get it down to manageable levels.
That is what any business would have to do.
At present the solution is to print money, but strangely other
countries are finding that it does not work any more.
The other solution, stop all overhead (perks, entitlements) and apply
austerity measures, does not work either.
These two traditional economic measures now no longer work.
This is what has Europe and the US in trouble.
Because of our mining income we have put back the same thing happening
here, but I suspect we are now seeing the early signs that the rest
experienced from 2008.

work either !

The only thing keeping Australia afloat is the mining sector with some input from agriculture as well but really quite small employment numbers.
When ( not if) China hits the wall and reduces it's imports from the Australian quarry, thing will get very tough here.
This has nothing to do with labour or liberal governments except that they have both led us down the path of globalisation and deregulation and that has reduced out capacity to "go it alone".
If you think things are bad now, think of the fix the Greeks are in with Spain, Portugal, Ireland and eventually the rest of Europe.
Small business will survive but will have a hard time till the real GFC hits us.
Then as the rest of the world collapses into chaos, it will be time for small business here to step in and provide jobs again.
We are going to have to learn all over again how to "make things" instead of pushing paper around from office to office on fancy electronics but needs must.
The best thing that can happen would be the total disintegration of the banking sector and it's replacement with a solid government bank.

What a depressing thread.

Having started three modest businesses that have created a small but measurable level of employment for others in the past fifteen years, I don't believe the situation has changed that much. All three are still operating, by the way, thanks for asking.

When you start a business, you research, understand and take into account all the cost variables - overall cost of employment, including all those taxes, penalties and risks etc. - and factor them into your business plan.

If your revenue is likely to exceed your costs, people plus technology plus cost of capital - then you have the makings of a business. If they don't, then you don't. If you have to rely on government grants/handouts/special treatment, then you should think twice before starting it. Then walk away.

(This rule does not apply, of course, to businesses that suddenly make a mint from an amazingly coincidental government decision. Pace Mr Obeid. Allegedly)

Then again, if you are in a business where those variables have changed in a way that invalidates your plan, don't stand around whingeing and crying poor, get out as soon as you can.

The amazing thing is that the void you create by getting out will be very quickly filled by someone who has a greater hunger to make things happen, and/or a smarter appreciation of what constitutes a viable business, and/or a smarter way of operating that business.

Don't get me wrong here, I think the present government's IR policies suck, big time. There seems to be an almost willful blindness as to what business is all about, and this creates a few additional headaches that you need to take into account when starting your business. But don't forget also that Joe Hockey was once the Minister of Small Business and Tourism, and he was also totally ignorant when it came to the small business part of his portfolio.

He was great, on the other hand, at opening luxury resorts and being entertained by hotel management throughout the land. Smart enough, at least, to remain firmly in his comfort zone.

Pericles, the whole point of this thread is to highlite the fac that the uptake, thats this stepping up to fill the void, has declined to the tune of a staggering 95%.

This is where my concern lies, and if this trend continues, and there is no reason to suggest it won't, we will be in awful shape in five to ten years from now.

Even Martin Furgeson himself says many businesses are under extreme preasure due to cost blowouts. He refers mainly to big business, mining ect.

We must act now if we wish to save ourselves from what the likes of urope are going through, as once we loose mining growth, then what.

Close the gate when the horse has bolted rings a bell!

I don't know any sector that is happy with IR at present, and that's a good enough reason to start again.

Mining contributes 20% of GDP.
What is this 95% you are on about.
Business can only stay in business while they have patrons. If you bye on line, and imported stuff, you suffer the consequences.
Shopping malls are expanding in this state, it's the convenience factor.

I have just got back from a shopping trip to the local centre.
There is a building nearby soon to be demolished for home units.
One of the shops in the building has a guy trying to sell his trolley
bags. He used to be in a family business in the shopping centre and
three other centres. They have had to get out of the business and they
have all their stock there in this short term rental shop.
The bags are all being sold at very much lower than the price I had
seen in other shops.

He said that people are not traveling or making do with bags that they
already have. He was one of the turnover shops in the main centre.
This I suspect is very typical of what is happening in retail.

579, I think if you looked into it the shopping centre expansion you
mention it was probably contracted a couple of years ago.

Robert le Page said;
Small business will survive but will have a hard time till the real GFC hits us.

Probably true. Until China has a major production collapse nothing
much will change. That will probably not happen until energy prices
impact onto their GDP in a significant way.

Then small business will come into its own.
Not in shopping centres however, they will be closing as they have
started to in the US. How far into the future, who knows ?
It will not happen over night but it will happen.

There is no easy answer to all this and until governments realise
that the traditional tactics no longer work because the cost of energy
has taken up all and more of the national profit.
Even though energy costs had been doing that for some years they just
kept on borrowing believing that it was all temporary.
It is not it is PERMANENT !

Well, yes, rehctub.

>>Pericles, the whole point of this thread is to highlite the fac that the uptake, thats this stepping up to fill the void, has declined to the tune of a staggering 95%.<<

As I understand you, this means that for every 100 businesses that close down, only five start up, yes? I'm keen to see those actual numbers, if you happen to have them handy

Also, the conclusion you seem to have drawn is that IR laws are to blame - do you have any evidence for that too? There are many reasons why small businesses close; I'd be amazed if IR figured very high on the list, except as a convenient scapegoat.

Meanwhile, this might interest you - it is relatively recent, and has a couple of interesting observations to make.

http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/managing/blogs/the-venture/ability-to-fail-quickly-an-important-skill-20120806-23osz.html

"Australian entrepreneurs had the second-highest fear of failure, just behind the Republic Of Korea, in innovation-driven economies, the 2011 Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) shows. Thankfully, Australia had the second-highest Total Early-Stage Entrepreneurial Activity, second only to the United States."

Sounds as though we are still pretty keen.

Here are some actual numbers, rehctub, being the figures for new business registrations, courtesy of ASIC, for the past three years.

2009: 146,654
2010: 159,982
2011: 167,454

And so far this year? 157,460

http://www.asic.gov.au/asic/asic.nsf/byheadline/2012-company-registration-statistics?openDocument

The important number from your point of view is of course the net new businesses. This can be found in the same set of stats, which show the "Total Number of Companies" in the accompanying chart.

This shows that the net increase in companies open for business has been steady each year:

2009-2010: 69,385 increase
2010-2011: 76,245 increase

And so far this year? an increase of 77,126 companies.

That indicates that there are twice as many new companies registering, as there are deregistering.

Of course, these are merely the raw numbers of registrations and deregistrations. For complete accuracy, there needs to be an additional layer of information that shows active businesses. But personally, I don't know where to find that detail.

Do you?

579.

Mining contributes 20% of GDP?
Actually it's about 10%.
It also provides about 240,000 jobs out of a national figure of 11,500,000. For comparison, the Real Estate industry employs about 200,000.
Except for the big bucks involved and the political influence it wields, the industry is not quite as vital as it may seem.

rehctub,

About 300,000 new businesses open every year and a similar number close.
That's why they don't show in in unemployment figure because the jobs are still there - they only move between businesses, just as they always have done and will continue to do in future.
Stating one half of the story is a bit alarmist, don't you think?

Pericles, I will try to find the link, but the info I used was revealed at a recent small business summit.

579, to accurately estimate the jobs mining creates, you must also accou t for the jobs created indirectly from the mining sector, from the camp caretaker, through to the engineering supplies.

The number would be quite staggering, in fact, many booming businesses would simply close without the input they receive from mining.

I work in a mining town, and what I have witnessed in the way of change, is mind blowing to say the least.

Of cause, as these businesses expand, they can't find staff as there's nowhere to live, unless of cause you want to use all your income for rent.

Sounds as though your alarmism is based on a state issue, and not AU as a whole. Abbott was trying to push the same line, but the stats are against you.

When a small business falters and closes it's the fault of the "MANAGEMENT" of the small business. They have NOT done their due diligence, thus their business becomes unviable.

This is the most BASIC facet of capitalism, and one I support 100%. Capitalism is about survival of the fittest and best .... if a company can't cut the mustard (for ANY reason whatsoever) it DESERVES to fail.

As figures presented late in this thread show .... the original "belief" by the original poster regarding small business is a load of rubbish. Small business in Australia is doing quite well indeed, and is heading towards the crest of a boom which will be upon us within several years time. I own and operate a small business, and know personally hundreds of small business owners ..... they are smiling and know the future is bright in Australia.

The knockers are invariably doing it because they see a political or ideological gain, and they SLANT their criticism so that it targets their ideological/political enemies. Most small business operators stay away from that sort of rubbish, because they know the "facts" and are too busy making damn sure they do the due diligence regarding the viability of their businesses. Good on them.