csteele,

Just as an aside to the main argument here, any "dramatic jump in wealth" in the third world is usually accompanied by a degree of westernisation. India is a case in point, with a massive migration from the land to the cities, introduced monoculture farming making it harder for families to eke out out a living by subsistence farming employing a diversity of crops.

Here's the upshot, in that "Western" diseases become an additional plague to the population.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2012-07-23/obesity-produces-diabetic-epidemic-in-india/4148616

csteele,
Figures I have read show India to be well above replacement level as a whole. However belly is right, we need to put family planning high on the list with aid western countries give to developing countries, especially with those that are most susseptable to famine.

A lot of Asian countries are heading in the right direction but African countries are over populated. The Asian experience is that given the education and the means, women will not have so many kids and families will be much better off.

Dannelle made the point earlier that females stop ovulating when food is scarce, so each time we hand out extra food it means they begin ovulating again and so produce more mouths to feed. Of course we cannot stand aside and let people die but we need to concentrate more on prevention by providing the means of contraception.

Unfortunately I see that it will be too late for many and there is every likelyhood that mass deaths will occur before some populations drop. Will keep an eye on the present drought in the North and see what happens. It looks like Canada is only partially affected at present. This means that grain may be available to Africa this year and Aus is looking good for a good harvest as well.

*It wasn't only Bush my friend.*

I agree with you on that one, Csteele. I mentioned Bush, as his signficicance was mentioned in the Economist article. But you are correct, the tentacles of the Vatican, stretch all the way into our own Govts, right here.

Nobody shouts more about this on OLO than I do and Harradine was a classic example of how the church can wield its power, under our very noses. Right now we have another example in WA. A brand new hosptial being built in WA by taxpayers and the Catholics will be the operators. Bad luck to you, if you want the snip or your tubes tied.
One doctor was actually kicked out from one of their hospitals, after
performing such a procedure.

At least we Australians can go elsewhere, unlike poor people in other parts of the world like the Philippines, where they have litle choice but to keep popping out babies. Parts of Africa are much the same.

Independents can wield far too much power in politics ...

There is something very wrong with this picture.

I fail to see how we can avoid some truths about third world country's.
India, on its way to being a giant economy still has its poor living in the gutters.
Yes America can be charged with that too.
But corruption sees very little getting to those in need , even the aid we send.
Lets look at the food aid concerts, been a few mass death droughts now, and we send food.
Only to see it stolen or profit made from it, and the birth rate replaces those who died,fast.
Look at Somalia, would they have more with half the numbers of people?
I strongly think those Dennie the problem add to it.
And that one day we will see much less freedom as measures to control a great deal we choose not to are enforced, maybe not all bad.

I will be surprised if there is sudden change in birthrates.
As I see it, it requires two things to happen.
The child death rate has to fall and at the same time an old age
pension has to be introduced.
Together they can look after people in their old age.

As far as the pension is concerned, I doubt if the countries where it
is needed most will ever be able to finance it.
We are now in a new financial regime permanently, even if governments
have not yet woken up to the new normal.