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Climate Change
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Posted by Anthonyve, Sunday, 15 July 2012 10:28:58 AM
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Anthony, csteel et al,
I cannot find the original paper by Alklett & Hooke but here is a later paper by Mikael Hooke at Uppsala (got the spelling right). http://tinyurl.com/7cnlv7s The original url had 256 characters ! He does not give an opinion on what the rise in temperature would be. Looking at the tables of coal reserves Aus is well down the list. We do not have big reserves. Except in our own eyes. Posted by Bazz, Sunday, 15 July 2012 12:04:51 PM
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Dear Bazz,
No I wasn't using different figures. Alklett was talking about total oil production not just crude and unless you can find me a more reputable source than the IEA then I will let the numbers stand. Be that as it may I thank you for the link. This is a more nuanced effort than Aklett's original work and certainly deserving of attention. But that is to be expected after a couple of years to refine the message. Yet as the paper says "Several scenarios already agree poorly with reality over the recent years and some can even be ruled out.". While I'm not ruling out the proposition I think you would agree Alkett's original effort agreed 'poorly with reality'. Your latest paper From Hooke argues "that many SRES scenarios need to be revised, generally downward, regarding production expectations from coal. " They certainly should be revised since the original scenarios were done in 2000, but downward? Still not convinced. For instance over that dozen years we have had an explosion of Coal Seam Gas projects not only in Australia but around the world. 12 years ago this was still a fairly embryonic and even now it has a long way to go before it can be regarded as mature. Technology and the market has opened up a previously untapped and for the most part untappable source. Another such resource is the artic circle where companies are seeking exploration leases to take advantage of a much diminished ice pack due to rising temperatures. Will price and technology continue to open up previously unviable sources to cater for demand? Of course. Do the scenarios need to be constantly revised to fit what is learned real world data? Again of course. Just as those who can never see an end to rising house or stock prices we may well be caught out when an energy peak is reached. But should the uncertainty of when that might happen be used to justify inaction on Climate Change? Most definitely not. Posted by csteele, Sunday, 15 July 2012 1:24:39 PM
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Anthonyve,
That's the kind of culling we need to consider. http://www.hans-hass.de/Englisch/index_english.htm if people think that's not right then can they please exclude those of us who agree with curbing population growth from any further aid contribution to those who don't want to stop breeding to no end. Posted by individual, Sunday, 15 July 2012 4:38:53 PM
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There have been a lot of subsequent posts to my note on the New Scientist article on 12 July.
I have a question: did anyone who continued the debate ever bother to go and read it? Especially Hasbeen, who challenged me exactly 14 minutes later, which wouldn't have given him much time. In fact, has anyone who posted on this topic ever read the scientific papers on Global Warming, both pro and con - all those peer reviewed publications? Or are you all just working with secondhand, thirdhand, nthhand commentary? I get a bit tired of discussions on The Forum where everyone just eternally repeats their opinion without updating. My post was intended to draw attention to new information. Apparently a waste of time. Posted by Cossomby, Tuesday, 24 July 2012 10:37:34 AM
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I'm interested that you mention about the efficient use of off peak for car battery Recharging.
I just recently read a presentation from Abetterplace.org about how their charging management software does exactly that.
It sounded impressive and extremely well thought out.
Anthony
http://www.observationpoint.com.au