Interesting analysis, Pericles.

Here is one that is interesting too, from Felix Zulauf.

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Felix-Zulauf-Swiss-rally-risk-assets-Greece-crisis-pd20120213-RER8N?OpenDocument&src=sph

Loth as I am to disagree with a Swiss "Asset Manager" Yabby, he does come across as a little glib in some areas.

"The thing is, Greece doesn’t make a lot of products. It makes feta cheese and olive oil, and it has tourism. If Greece became 50 per cent cheaper than Spain, Italy and Portugal, after a year or so, the economy would recover."

"In a year or so", I would suggest, every country that has business dealings with Greece will still be fighting out in court a settlement of all the promises that were broken at the moment Greece exited the Eurozone. It is one thing to get international bankers with their broad-based risk to take a 60-70% haircut on Greek bonds, but quite another for an Italian furniture company to forgive 50% of its Greek accounts receivables without a fight. Over 11% of Greece's imports are from Italy, by the way, and the Italians aren't so flush themselves at the moment either.

Not to mention, the streets of Athens would still be filled with teargas, rather than hordes of jolly tourists.

It is of course impossible for a Swiss to say anything at all without slagging off the Germans - even after all the Nazis did for them in WWII, hiding all that gold... but I digress.

"Germany is trying to force everyone onto an austerity course, but that’s only reinforcing the downward spiral of the periphery"

If you were a German businessman, you'd be a bit sick watching your thrift being used to support businesses conducted with (what they would call) Indolenz. But there is much sense in Zulauf's observation that generalized austerity cannot be the only option in play.

But we do seem to agree on the timeframe.

"...markets in the United States and Europe are in a long, sideways value compression period, similar to what we saw from the mid 1960s to the early 1980s. This current one started in 2000, and will probably last into the second half of this decade."

Yup. Wake me in 2018.

Seeing this subject is out of my expertise all i have to say is, with the influx of Greek imports hoping for a better life., all i am hoping for is to get back to some good fish and chips, like the Greeks were experts at.

579 "I am hoping for is to get back to some good fish and chips, like the Greeks were experts at." That's what happened the Greeks lost their touch at making decent F&C's overcooked the fish and used the oil a day or two too long.
579 if you want the Worlds best fish and chips, i don't make that claim lightly, get along to Mangonui in New Zealand's Northland. Not a big place, you can find the fish and chip shop on the water, sit out the back on a warm sunny morning overlooking Doubtless Bay. Everything is freshly cooked, nothing re-heated. Sure beats the streets of Athens at the moment.

perry im not much impressed with your 6 year plan
[2 normal election cycles..or 5 if they go the wrong whorse]

lets go a quote..""generalized austerity
cannot be the only option in play.""

a agree
''there is much sense..in Zulauf's observation''

but much depends..on what other options
a sovereign govt is enmtitled to use
when bound and tied..
by eu beurorocrats


you cant be serious...""If you were a German businessman,
you'd be a bit sick watching your thrift..being used to support businesses conducted with..(what they would call)..Indolenz."""

ahh yes a great germaniac word
but lets go the first bit..germ/maniac thrift?
be serious..germania..lends it..[only if not repaid..doth the bussymessman need pay]

till then
all new money..is rolled over [direct from the banker lending it..to the banker accepting it as repayment..for the last loan..

this ever buigger
ever neqw debt..is just going to the same old scammers
new loan..to repay old loan...

[its not as if the lenders hadnt noticed
the debt getting ever bigger..or that the newest loan..was only repaying the old loan[with ursury on top]

stop sending good credit
after bad debit..to repay the old money lent
ontop of tghe iold loan lent and spent...if indeed it ever went to the lazy greek pensioners or not

which im sure it didnt
all that green debt..from all that green fear
solved temporilly..by some germainiac wind or solar subsidy
again gifted not to the poor..[just like the poor never got free solar subsidies here

govt bailing out big business again
now lending to repay the lasdt short term loan

rollover got us into this global deception
knowing they could grow the debt..at ever higher intrest
its like running on a bankers running machine..run[lend]
but only owe ever more..ever bigger debt..till that one day

they say
stop giving with one hand
taking with the next..its not bailing out greece

only greecing..the skids
on a downward spiral
upon upward spiraling debt

ITS ONLY BAILING OUT GERMANIAC
AND FRENCH MONEYLENDERS./.!

its not..'bailing out'
greece!

its stickey/tricky..
fly/paper grease

greecing up a huge lie

Why is stock markets concerned at what is happening in Greece.