The Forum > General Discussion > So what if Greece defaults.
So what if Greece defaults.
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Posted by pepper, Monday, 13 February 2012 11:50:53 AM
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Good question.
"So what if Greece defaults" Personally, I don't believe that Greece will be allowed to default, and that the various parties will eventually fumble their way through. However, since a default is still possible, a glance at the consequences show them to be wide-ranging. First, Greece would leave the Eurozone, and be forced to re-invent the Drachma. The exchange rate would, of course, be woeful, which would have some medium-term beneficial impact on industries such as tourism. But the immediate fall-out, in which many thousands of contracts would need to be re-negotiated in Drachma, would see the international court system clogged with claims, none of which would do Greek businesses any favours. Then there would be the threat of hyperinflation, with output down, unemployment up, and ever-higher demand for the ever-decreasing stock of goods and services on offer. What next? The reality of a country forced into default would definitely spook the rest of Europe. Bank-runs would not be out of the question, capital would leave risky spots and head for safer havens (read: Germany), and bond yields in still-dodgy economies such as Portugal would once again go through the roof, triggering a repetition of the Greek situation elsewhere. Would the EU collapse as a result? Doubtful. Unwinding such a massive bureaucracy doesn't come easy, especially as there is actually no mechanism that allows even one country to leave. The amount of lawyers' fees involved in sorting that out would probably be enough to buy Greece outright. Let alone the time it would take. The EU has never been a particularly fast-moving body... What about us? Well, our direct trade with the Eurozone is minimal - some estimates put it as low as 4% of our exports by value. The problem, though, is the flow-on effects of a slow-down in European imports from China, which could well cause that economy to slow down, in which case we'd get swept away in the backwash. But I'm a believer in the perpetual-muddle-through school of economics, and expect us to have put all this behind us by, say, 2018 or so. Posted by Pericles, Monday, 13 February 2012 1:46:00 PM
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You're probably right Pericles, but isn't it a delicious picture of all those EU bureaucrats waiting in line at the soup kitchen. It would be worth quite a lot of personal pain to see it.
The real worry is a couple of my kids, & 10 of thousands of others, who have built homes in the last 8 or so years, who could easily end up with negative equity, & ruined lives & dreams. So, I suppose we have to be on the side of the Germans, who have been milking this for all the advantage the low euro gives their industry. If the stuff does finally hit the fan, it will probably be more to do with the German maneuvering than the Greek debt, that started it. Posted by Hasbeen, Monday, 13 February 2012 3:02:11 PM
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a more important question is how many years of Labour before Australia ends up like Greece. The carbon tax will surely get us closer especially as the handouts in order to bribe voters will probably be more than the tax collected. Only economic vandals could continue with such lunacy.
Posted by runner, Monday, 13 February 2012 4:02:00 PM
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the perpetual-muddle-through school of economics, and expect us to have put all this behind us by, say, 2018 or so.
Pericles, They'll probably end up doing it the australian way, sell everything to foreigners. Posted by individual, Monday, 13 February 2012 6:01:42 PM
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fishy foundations..of the euro
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QV59gVIh6FE The government of Greece is collapsing http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/greek-mps-warned-of-catastrophe-as-athens-erupts-in-violence-6804817.html along with the burning of Athens.. we note the rise of commie party socialists. The Goldman Sachs installed prime minister is staying close to his chopper. goldman cooked the book's http://revolutionarypolitics.tv/video/viewVideo.php?video_id=17578 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tCe80hsx-ig then insider trading shorted greek debt http://articles.businessinsider.com/2010-02-15/wall_street/30029418_1_goldman-sachs-goldman-first-swaps No Greek is going to put a Euro in a bank account for fear of it disappearing. Have you noticed the Greeks are demanding war reparations from Germany for WW II There is nothing like bringing a pre-existing debt into the equation...ya gotta love historians/lawyers http://digitaljournal.com/article/319064 http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/8/52969 the bottom line.... http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-fed%E2%80%99s-european-%E2%80%9Crescue%E2%80%9D-another-back-door-us-bank-goldman-bailout The 28 MPs underlined that at an Italian-German financial conference held in Rome in 1942, the Axis powers arbitrarily decided..that occupied Greece,..as it had fought on the side of the Allies,..was obliged to fund the country’s occupation..*through a "loan". The MPs stressed that the now united German state owes Greece, a Second World War victor, roughly 54bn euros before interest, underlining that Greece was the victim of unparalleled cruelty inflicted by the Nazi forces. The signatories stressed that Greece has been the subject of an obvious injustice because it is the only country to which Germany..*has not paid reparations...(AMNA, Athens News) the twittering twitwits http://mashable.com/2012/02/13/riots-in-greece/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Mashable%2FSocialMedia+%28Mashable+%C2%BB+Social+Media+Feed%29 but heck we are off to the next war http://whatreallyhappened.com/reuters judge nepolitanio out of the fox' hen house http://revolutionarypolitics.tv/video/viewVideo.php?video_id=17763 a remider of the stanford project http://www.prisonexp.org/ a bigger picture http://www.examiner.com/nonpartisan-in-national/1-us-banks-gamble-5-million-per-us-household-532-trillion-total the latest black flag op from mossad...media unit..pre iran/syria? The timing only serves Israel's interests, not Iran's. http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/middle-east/Israeli-prime-minister-accuses-Iran-of-being-behind-car-bombings-in-New-Delhi-Tbilisi/articleshow/11875290.cms how about that vatican bank thing eh? http://news.yahoo.com/monsignors-mutiny-revealed-vatican-leaks-140524856.html Posted by one under god, Tuesday, 14 February 2012 7:50:08 AM
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They actually would be better off defaulting and returning to the Drakma 1. They negate the above 2. They can set their own currency value and exchange rate 3.The EU would cringe at this because the value of the Euro would dive [ helping to reset the Drakma ] and a list of benifits too long to quote here. 4. The EU would loose control of Greeces political stability let alone tying their currency to everyone else. Remember, as per usual, you control a countries finances, you have absolute control, socially, politically, ecconomicly - Greece becomes a slave to the EU. We should all ask the burning question ' where is this money comming from?' WHO are the Eu bankers?, Who elected them?.