Dear Pericles,

You wrote;

“But, back in Iran, there is an interesting battle under way between the essentially modern - and secular - jingoism of Ahmadinejad, and the deeply traditional clerical figurehead. It's been "on" for a while, and is in itself fascinating to observe.”

And I agree at first reading that would appear to be the dynamic but I sense a more nuanced relationship. For instance Ahmadinejad's quite disturbing rantings foretelling of a Shiite Messiah certainly dents any secular credentials.

If Khamenei did have a deficit in the eyes of many Iranians it would actually be his religious credentials. More a child of the revolution than from a deeply clerical background he is not looked towards for spiritual guidance any where like his predecessor was. In fact there was a fair degree of dissent, including from other Ayatollahs, around him being appointed a marja. Further he refused refused the offer of marja'iyat for Iran instead taking the lesser role for Shias outside of Iran.

Don't get me wrong, in our eyes he presents as deeply conservative and religious but in reality he is a far more toned down version than Khomeini.

When Ahmadinejad called for wiping Zionism off the map Khamenei responded with a measured “"the Islamic Republic has never threatened and will never threaten any country."

It is easy to see Ahmadinejad as a George Bush Jnr, confrontationalist and born-again, while Khamenei is probably closer to the Queen, head of the religious order and holding the ultimate power of dismissal.

He has total control over foreign policy but finds it useful to engage Ahmadinejad to prod the West many of whom can't look past Ahmadinejad to really see who pulls the strings.

So far he is holding his nerve.

A pretty neat analysis csteele, particularly the Ahmadinejad/Bush scenario.

However, I think you might be overstating the significance of Ahmadinejad's messianic raves.

>>For instance Ahmadinejad's quite disturbing rantings foretelling of a Shiite Messiah certainly dents any secular credentials.<<

In my view his purpose is entirely political, as opposed to religious. Give that the vast majority of Iranians are Ithnashari Shiite, who hold the return of the Hidden Imam as the central tenet of their version of the faith, in my view he is doing no more than tapping into that wellspring of hope/fear.

I could be wrong, but that's the way I read it. In a recent essay on the topic in the New York Review of Books, Malise Ruthven observed "For Ahmadinejad, populist expectations surrounding [the Hidden Imam's] imminent return (an attitude described as 'deviant' by conservative clerics) serves to boost his presidential ambitions."

Watch this space.

Dear Pericles,

You wrote;

“However, I think you might be overstating the significance of Ahmadinejad's messianic raves.”

You could well be right, indeed I remember quite vocal questions about the truthfulness of Bush's apparent conversion to the born-again brand of the Christian faith, and I'm not sure I would want to put my house on its validity.

But while both men certainly have an eye trained on their backers and the general voters I'm not prepared to dismiss either of them buying into the Messianic trip.

I'm also sure that Bush's closeness to the 'Raturists' would have been deemed troubling if not 'deviant' by 'conservative clerics', who in the American setting would include the mainstream, traditional churches.

While they certainly believe in a 'rapture' style event it is always of the Post-Tribulation variety and so dismiss the pre and mid tribulation raptures as unscriptural. Not so Bush's most strident supporter base.

Ultimately we need to decide who is the more dangerous beast, the man with deeply held religious beliefs or the one who would do anything, say anything, or become anything to gain power. I tend to think the latter though open to your assessment.

What tickles this old secularist is the knowledge that Ahmadinejad's messiah will be arm and arm with Christ when they return together, this is according to Ahmadinejad own beliefs.

Within the current Iranian leadership and particularly compared to Ahmadinejad's religious and confrontational rhetoric I'm happy viewing Khamenei as the 'pragmatic moderate'. Probably his most important relationship though is the one he holds with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards. He was appointed supervisor in the eighties and they have protected him against both the clerics and the reformers. While that relationship holds and remains mutually beneficial he will prevail.

I should add I am a far more comfortable with a nuclear capable Iran under his leadership than I was with either Pakistan or North Korea. But when he goes things may well get a lot more troubling.

Oh hell, here we go again.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE8101UK20120201?irpc=932

It didn't take long for the sanctions to impact food imports.

Bend over and take it Kahmenei or watch your people starve.

Are we going to stand back and watch this ratchet up until another US Secretary of State gets to say the deaths of half a million Iranian children was 'worth it'?

Damn this can be a pretty depressing world some times.