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The Forum > General Discussion > Professor Ian Plimer: lies, damned lies, and statistics?

Professor Ian Plimer: lies, damned lies, and statistics?

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From a book extract published in the Australian, Plimer asks the question: “the alarmist media stresses that changing sea ice and continental glaciers indicate rapid global warming. Is this really so?”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/features/glacial-chill-ebbs-and-flows/story-e6frg6z6-1226224280587

The first seven paragraphs are basically lifted from of a press release by the Uni Of Copenhagen

http://news.ku.dk/all_news/2011/2010.8/arctic_sea_ice/

Do they Agree with Plimer: NO. Why?

“..there is a clear connection between temperature and the amount of sea ice. And there is no doubt that continued global warming will lead to a reduction in the amount of summer sea ice in the Arctic Ocean"

Next we have this quote:
"Glaciers such as the Bolivian Telata glacier reflect long-term warming during the current 10,500-year-long interglacial and that glacial retreat was in progress thousands of years before industrialisation"

Is Plimer correct: No. Why?

From the CNRS: the French National Centre for Scientific Research 10 June 2011
Causes of melting tropical glaciers identified
"over the past 10 000 years. ..the surface area of the glacier decreased and its front retreated by 3 km. The glacial retreat has accelerated since the beginning of the 19th century, retreating by 2 km since 1820…Melting since 1820 is not linked to variations in insolation but to other mechanisms. "

http://www2.cnrs.fr/en/1873.htm

Perhaps Plimer got his information from elsewhere: perhaps this:

Past and Contemporary Climate Change: Evidence From Earth's Ice Cover
E. S. Mosley-Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center.

Is Plimer consistent. NO. Why?

The tropical ice core composite carries the signature of 20 th century warming particularly the last twenty years. Glaciers between elevations of 4 1/2 to 6 Km show characteristics of melt. The MVP and LIA do not appear in Tibetan glacial records (they are not a global phenomena).

http://www.agu.org/meetings/fm10/lectures/lecture_videos/A42D.shtml

And finally we have this:
Antarctic ice core (Siple) 330 PPM CO2 1900;
Mauna Loa Hawaiian measurements 260 PPM in 1960;
"Either the ice core data is wrong [or] the Hawaiian carbon dioxide measurements are wrong"

Is Plimer correct. No. Why?

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2

1960 317 PPM

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/siple2.013

Study 1 1903-1925 300ppm
Study 2 1903 294.8ppm

The history of fallacy continues; the science is still missing.
Posted by sillyfilly, Tuesday, 20 December 2011 12:47:49 PM
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ohhhh good god
with sio much 'proof'
the tax must be good

but hey what is the tax fixing?
is it c02 or methane causing this warning

or is it anyone of 20 other global warming gassses
doing this warming...why tax only one gas!

cause they want to keep producing the other gasses

cause the spin is in..its our breathing
the gas from the bubbles in our daily bread
its the gas in ya beer and champain..

not the emmisions of industry or farming...
or from your farts..its not you..its me

yes pilmer is wrong
when you look narrow vieuw
pick on one aspect..and ignore the rest
or use his few errors to invalidate the rest

by the same measure
one crook..statement..exposed from your side
invalidates you lot..ok here it goes al gore/20 meters sea rise

now give me back my tax
call of ya hate/bias campain
its too selective...reply all lord monkton has said

your so good at spinning a destraction..
at a single strand
when we face a whole..web..of lies

then a cure all that fixes nuthin
koyoto is a joke..but withdrawing from that joke is going to cost canada 20 billion...[and we mugs were the last to sign before it died...but not its affections within the treaty]

how is us [20 million]..paying a punitive tax
going to save 7 billion big poluters..too big to care

heck our payments alone
are more..than the total world's..obligated promises
Posted by one under god, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 5:57:26 AM
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i like the selectivity..of sea ice/graciers
when the real issue is warming[plus the tax to fix it]

if those who actually live there arnt concerned
why listen to adgendas of those seeking to excuse their guilt

so we dont notice the other facts?

NCDC data shows that the contiguous USA
has not warmed in the past decade,..summers are cooler, winters are getting colder
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/11/05/ncdc-data-shows-that-the-contiguous-usa-has-not-warmed-in-the-past-decade-summers-are-cooler-winters-are-getting-colder/

Only 1 of 9 regions has a positive decadal trend
for the Annual mean temperature,..the Northeast.

This data is from USHCN2, from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Note that I have not adjusted it or even self plotted it in any way.

The output graphs and trend numbers are from NCDC’s publicly available “Climate At A Glance” database interface, and these can be fully replicated by anyone easily simply by going here and choosing “regions”:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/cag3/cag3.html

I find the fact that summer temperatures were negative
in five of 9 regions interesting.

But most importantly,
the trend for the CONUS for the past 10 years
*is not flat,..but cooling.

ya want links
lets look at the facts

enough spin and ignorance has been spoken
and the name calling and arrogance is off the scale

complicity..collusion..treason..theft
changfing numbers..selective data..
liers

lol climate scientists
no such thing

take some fact
spin the spin..reviuew the peers spin revieuw
splatter it into the media..give us the right reason..we will do eGSACTLY what the spinning peerrs want[more power more govt money..more subsidy more bailout

banks need more govt money
so lets give them a new tradable commodity

cash back
out of thin air?
bah

you making me sick
Posted by one under god, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 6:59:53 AM
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is silly filly a filly
or just the frill for an adgenda

who knows
27 posts in 3 years

» 20/12/2011 12:47:49 PM From a book extract published in the Australian, Plimer asks the question: “the alarmist m.....
» 25/01/2011 1:53:22 PM Very Interesting; so how do the models (correctly "scenarios") of the IPCC compa.....
» 25/01/2011 12:48:01 PM Dear snowman, good name for someone trying to do a snow job. A pithy little reply with no .....
» 25/01/2011 9:54:40 AM Dear John McLean. This is just another prime example of inept analysis (for which you are .....
» 15/10/2009 7:49:47 AM Just a few little snippets here: particularly for IanC and Curmudgeon. Firstly, from Carl.....
» 11/09/2009 2:29:48 PM What a wonderful, succinct and appropriate summary of where we are at in the AGW debate. T.....
» 3/09/2009 2:47:30 PM It's absolutely amazing that anybody still has an issue with AGW. This has been evidenced .....
» 22/01/2009 12:51:31 PM Dear mil-observer: re: "atmospheric hot spot is missing and the ice core data refute.....
» 22/01/2009 9:47:33 AM What an amazingly undeducated commentary from several bloggers about the lack of evidence .....
» 15/01/2009 8:26:45 AM If David Evans and his cohorts from the Australian Climate Science Coalition have any cred.....

edited to word limit

» 4/08/2008 1:39:23 PM "Who has measured the mass of rock hidden beneath arctic and antarctic snow and ice?&.....
» 28/07/2008 2:08:02 PM Love some of this guff, particularly references to Prof Andy Pitman. Pitman agrees with th.....
» 25/07/2008 2:20:42 PM David Evans has had a good run for his money over the past week, however most of his asser.....
» 25/07/2008 2:05:43 PM David Evans has been oft quoted here as a basis for argument on climate change. However as.....

27 comments in total:
21 article comments,..6 general comments.

how many new general topic starts?
Posted by one under god, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 7:07:51 AM
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thought i would re-read/
analies silly frillies first post

the first post
edited
heck last post to topic for the day
gulp

anyhow..that went well
http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/thread.asp?article=7672#119510

so two more went in

and silly frilly filly..went away
till the next time
a silly frilly *filly was needed

arjay wasted valuble wordlimits
reacting to her silly filly name
[as planed]..

see thats how they shut down many...
by making the name so easy to play
a destraction from the play..

next came speak up
[speaking down petro fuels]

http://forum.onlineopinion.com.au/user.asp?id=51216

total of 4 posts
just getting going
when for some reason he left

Comment History
» 18/03/2009 11:04:45 AM Are you saying that Obama
is influenced by the Devil runner? And that Bush was influenced .....

» 18/03/2009 10:46:27 AM Rudd was left with a strong economy
which is why Australia has done as well as it has to d.....

» 25/07/2008 5:01:51 PM It doesn't matter to me
if you are a skeptic or not of GW. IMHO it just makes sense that w.....

» 15/05/2008 10:30:36 AM If you tell someone that they are awesome
enough times they will believe it even if they a.....

by this time i was over egsaming anymore
and think its far easier to do nuthin
like the rest of ya

yeah your right
frilly filly

its all too silly

how much tax ya want from me now

take it all
here take my blood
take my kids..kill them in futile wars

easy aint it

here take my wallet
its empty for some reason

oh i dont need the cards
i turned it all into cash

im ready for the trainwreck
sorry..in plain speak..the crash
Posted by one under god, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 7:45:59 AM
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Dear sillyfilly, once your warming case goes over the top of the bell curve there is insufficient energy in the system to bring it back up.

It’s over. You will just make yourself ill trying to get some dead cat bounce.

You have been placed in a bubble with the rest of the warmers where you can do no harm. Industry is quietly getting on with carbon business; politicians are slowly withdrawing their sponsorship, public interest and support is in decline, academia is suffering career limiting embarrassment and the media are looking for a soft landing.

There is something about reality you are just not getting and you are sounding increasingly…….. er, silly really.
Posted by spindoc, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 8:50:24 AM
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When arguing with some people -
best to remember that you're not trying to
convince them to actually buy into silly notions like
facts and reason.

Do yourself a favour and save your breath.
Christmas is just around the corner, and hey -
it's the cricket season, tennis is coming up,
there's plenty of other things to argue about ...

As for our politicians? politics it seems to me for
years or all too long has been concerned with right
or left instead of right or wrong.
Posted by Lexi, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 10:18:04 AM
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Thanks Lexi, yep, I'll have some of those facts and resons please.

Can I have a load of dead polar bears, six melting glaciers, five extinct reefs, four large tornado's, three metre sea levels, two melting ice caps and cheat at the IPCC.

Merry christmas les gullibles.
Posted by spindoc, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 11:36:48 AM
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Dear spindoc,

I should think you'd be a little more particular
on the company you keep.
Posted by Lexi, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 1:25:04 PM
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Climate is happening. Be it a natural cycle or hastened by man's activities. Now, what can we do about it ? Considering that we can't stop neither with a tax nor with reducing greenhouse gasses. Even if every single one of the 6 billion mutts polluting this atmosphere would somehow (someone tell us how) stop polluting, climate change would continue. This is the nature of climate. It's only some humans who think they can stop this by pocketing money from those who already live in miserable conditions.
Lies, damned lies ? Well, it'll be like this. We'll be damned if we do & we'll be damned if we don't do something (whatever that something is) about climate change. One thing is certain. A money grab to cover incompetent governing by calling it a carbon tax isn't going to do anything for the planet for the next 20 generations. On the contrary, the more money we give to our government the more the parliamentarians will jet around the globe causing more pollution.
Posted by individual, Wednesday, 21 December 2011 4:57:57 PM
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ALL I CAN SAY IS GLOBAL WARMING IS TURNING OUT TO BE REALLY COOL.It is a gigantic hoax and a monumental fraud being used to subjugate us all and bring in their facist NWO.Bob Brown and the Greens want "Global Governance".They are all evil people and we must defeat them!
Posted by Arjay, Thursday, 22 December 2011 5:43:39 AM
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You're not the dude who wrote the script to Batman, are you Arjay?

(BANG!) (CRASH!) (KAPOW!)
Posted by Poirot, Thursday, 22 December 2011 5:48:42 AM
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Chinese 2,485 year tree ring study shows natural cycles control climate, temps may cool til 2068

A blockbuster Chinese study of Tibetan tree rings by Liu et al 2011 shows, with detail, that the modern era is a dog-standard normal climate when compared to the last 2,500 years. The temperature, the rate of change — it’s all been seen before. Nothing about the current period is “abnormal”, indeed the current warming period in Tibet can be produced through calculation of cycles. Liu et al do a Fourier analysis on the underlying cycles and do brave predictions as well.

In Tibet, it was about the same temperature on at least four occasions — back in late Roman times (those chariots!), then again in the dark ages (blame the collapse of industry), then in the middle ages (the Vikings?), then in modern times (blame the rise of industry).

Clearly, these climate cycles have nothing to with human civilisation. Their team finds natural cycles of many different lengths are at work: 2-3 years, 100 years, 199 years, 800 years, and 1,324 years. The cold periods are associated with sunspot cycles. What we are not used to seeing are brave scientists willing to publish exact predictions of future temperatures for 100 years that include rises and falls. Apparently, it will cool til 2068, then warm again, though not to the same warmth as 2006 levels. (http://joannenova.com.au/2011/12/chinese-2485-year-tree-ring-study-shows-shows-sun-controls-climate-temps-will-cool-til-2068/)

So why hasn't this fairly obvious type of study been conducted in many locations? Well, alarmist feeding scientists would not have a pay packet, wouldn't that be a shame. Now nearly everyone will have a pay packet that will not go as far.
Posted by Cowboy Joe, Friday, 23 December 2011 10:46:51 AM
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how hard is it to explain why...!
we live in houses..because they hold the heat?

we live in our houses
on a planet..thats warm inside it
heat rises...heat has been escaping
into the deep freeze we call outerspace...for ever
[ever since the hot-lump got ejectulated from the sin[sun]

anyhow bear with me
see a hot coal...in a cigarette
throw away the faaagg...and imagine the small glowing bit at the end

represents our earth
the smoke the heat evaprating into outer space
gone forever...indeed if all that warm..if the heat stopped..
we would freeze to death in an instant..i like warm...[happyness is a warm planet to live on]

warm baby warm
yet in a few years
the cold comes in...or volcanoes block off the sun
meaning all we put into sun power...wont work..for 18 months

2/3 rd will die
because of the guilt your shame
cause you lied..those 2/3rd did..[will]..die

yes its a lie
now they got their tax
let the lie die..till we get a need for the next lie
too the next tax...[heck one teeny salt tax..in india..or a tea tax in usa...and your great parents rioted in the streets

they must feel so proud of you now
lol
Posted by one under god, Friday, 23 December 2011 11:15:56 AM
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OUG,
The so-called lie probably isn't a to the morons because if you really believe something, be it true or false, then it really isn't a lie. The real problem therefore is the stupidity of people not thinking lie or no lie. If you could save your life by telling a lie then you would but if you believed someone's lie & repeated it then you wouldn't be lying, would you ?
The tax supporters fall into this group. Julia only believed what some self-preservation agenda academics told her.
I say let those in favour of the carbon tax pay but leave those who don't, alone. I don't pollute a fraction of what some of the bureaucrats pollute. They can pay, I don't want nor should I pay.
Posted by individual, Friday, 23 December 2011 9:12:37 PM
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but individual
YOU DONT HAVE TO PAY...!

recall
its ONLY 500
who must pay

so lets name them
and hold the debt..restrict any payment of that debt
on them..just them...and if they try to get out of it

sue juliar et'al
for lying!
Posted by one under god, Saturday, 24 December 2011 8:25:17 AM
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its ONLY 500
who must pay.
UOG,
And those 500 refuse to pass on the extra cost ? Yeah, right ! There goes another herd of pink elephants.
Posted by individual, Saturday, 24 December 2011 3:41:28 PM
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Under one god -

"or is it anyone of 20 other global warming gassses doing this warming...why tax only one gas!"

It's general knowledge but for your info, the term "carbon" when used in reference to AGW is a generic one that includes ALL the greenhouses gases.

If you had bothered to keep your eyes, ears and mind open you would have known this.
Posted by wobbles, Saturday, 24 December 2011 3:49:36 PM
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oh dear dislectic bleswob
carbon tax..is on c02 emmision's
recall the imagry..
all them 'smokestacks'..belching steam?]

methane from homecomposing..
isnt carbon

nitrouse oxide...
[from farmers putting..nitrogen..for soy..into the soil]
isnt taxed..as c02..[think of the amasing amason dissappearing just to grow soy..alone...or palm oil...rampant deforrestations...

in fact farmers..are carbon neutral
but not nitrouse oxides neutral..
[a far worse greenhouse gas]

the list goes on..endlessly
with other absurdities that refute ya thesis

but your cure-all..catch all?
carbon...dont make me laugh

mate
your wrong...
drop the penny wong act

orica et'al..[chemical companies]
mining/farming..fishing forrestry
will continue releasing their poisens
many actually creating carbon tax credit

if not them
then the market will lease them..to you
for a price..anyhow were got our fixed minds made up for us

i wont notrice your absurd disslexicisms
feel free to ignore mine

merry xmasss
peace on earth
[and all that]
Posted by one under god, Sunday, 25 December 2011 8:50:28 AM
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