Yabby;
Your figures are way out.
I have not seen what Hubbard predicted for 1970 but as you can see
the peak was in 1970 at 9637000 barrels, 9.63Mbd not 1.5Mbd.
Assuming he did predict 5.9Mbd then from 14 years earlier not too bad.
He was in error in that he predicted 2008 at 100 Mbd for the world
when it was actually 76Mbd actually.
I think he was well up on technical developments as he was head of
Shell's research.
I wish I could predict lotteries or horse races, or indeed the share
market that well.

Decade Year-0 Year-1 Year-2 Year-3 Year-4 Year-5 Year-6 Year-7 Year-8 Year-9
1850's 0
1860's 1 6 8 7 6 7 10 9 10 12
1870's 14 14 17 24 30 33 25 37 42 55
1880's 72 76 83 64 66 60 77 77 75 96
1890's 126 149 138 133 135 145 167 166 152 156
1900's 174 190 243 275 320 369 347 455 488 502
1910's 574 604 609 681 728 770 822 919 920 1,037
1920's 1,210 1,294 1,527 2,007 1,951 1,700 2,112 2,469 2,463 2,760
1930's 2,460 2,332 2,145 2,481 2,488 2,723 3,001 3,500 3,324 3,464
1940's 4,107 3,847 3,796 4,125 4,584 4,695 4,749 5,088 5,520 5,046
1950's 5,407 6,158 6,256 6,458 6,342 6,807 7,151 7,170 6,710 7,054
1960's 7,035 7,183 7,332 7,542 7,614 7,804 8,295 8,810 9,096 9,238
1970's 9,637 9,463 9,441 9,208 8,774 8,375 8,132 8,245 8,707 8,552
1980's 8,597 8,572 8,649 8,688 8,879 8,971 8,680 8,349 8,140 7,613
1990's 7,355 7,417 7,171 6,847 6,662 6,560 6,465 6,452 6,252 5,881
2000's 5,822 5,801 5,746 5,681 5,419 5,178 5,102 5,064 4,950 5,361
2010's 5,474

Belly as you can see it was Yabby that was wrong not Hubbard.

Bazz, my figure is quite accurate and comes directly from
Pulitzer prize winning author Daniel Yergin, in his recent
800 page epic factual disussion of energy of all kinds,
called Quest.

If you want to be informed on the subject, I suggest that you
read a number of sources. Yergin sure did his homework on the
topic.

One of the chapters is indeed on what Hubbert did and did not
predict.

Yabby, I knew the figure you quoted must be wrong.
I doubt if Yergin would get it that wrong either.
I got that table from the US Govt EIA.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=A

Nothing more to say.

Bazz, I think that you are getting your wires crossed.

In 1971, Hubbert predicted that in 2010 the US would be producing
1.5 million barrels a day. The actual figure was 5.9 million
barrels, so he was out by a factor of 4.

We are mixing up US & world figures.
Also check if Yergin is referring to Tons as some stats are in tons.

I have not seen Hubbards figures for 2010, so what you are saying is
that the depletion is not as fast as Hubbard expected.
Yes, I think that was probably because of the Alaskan field.

The internet seems to have been fixed.
However production is still 4 or 5 times discovery.
That can only lead to one end.