Belly,

Your statement "But Australian Politics in in motion, in flux. Change could come over night." is more than a little optimistic. While there are spikes in opinion from various day to day issues, the trend in opinion has been downwards for 2 years. Turning this around will need a series of consecutive popular wins for Juliar to establish confidence and trust. This is assuming no further scandals in the Labor caucus.

The coalition needs to tune its message, but not much. It needs to focus on the mechanism of dismantling the carbon tax, the NBN etc.

The other strings in Abbott's bow that haven't changed is Juliar's disastrous border control policy, Craig Thomson and a raft of other small issues.

Well I can only give you my honest opinions.
I find, now I may be wrong, your style blind mostly to truth.
My views are wrong some times but truly held and deeply considered.
I am prepared to at some future date to be judged by them.
My over view of Australian Policies 2007 till now followers.
Rudd promised much, he went in to power with not every member up to scratch.
And with his, well known, while in the Queensland government, controlling attitude.
His support came/comes from voters not party.
Internally rather than externally he lost leadership.
In my view partly at the hands of his very poor replacement.
Conservatives ride a wave of, even within the ALP discontent with Gillard.
Kept afloat ONLY BY ANTI Rudd forces behind locked doors.
Some of who want to lead them selves.
This mornings link, highlights your side.
It points to promises made that just will/can not be kept.
Much, in truth, of Abbott's promises chill your side.
Some of your team wait knife in hand, for his slip.
IF he is elected he will as the link says, not be able to do much his own party, its supporters ,will see to that.
One of us is quite wrong, based on your last post and my last two I await judgment.

Belly,

While I believe that your opinions are honest, I also believe them to be wrong.

Even in 2008 at the height of labor's popularity when Rudd began dismantling the Pacific solution and the boats began to increase, while most were dismissive of the effect on labor's popularity, given the huge margin, I clearly said that as 80% supported the pacific solution, that if this went badly, it would quickly erode confidence in the government, and while not being a deal breaker in itself would make the next election much harder.

What I didn't expect was the continued litany of failures with the pink batts, the school halls, the broken promises etc.

The labor brand is so badly damaged that a couple of victories is not going to revive its fortunes. My guesstimate is that a decade in opposition is required to expunge the party of its odium and its incompetent front bench.

You will note we are talking again.
I believe in Civility.
Quite a rough nut known for saying what I think, truly think.
I understand our views ask that you understand mine
Truly I believe you take an issue, sometimes a non issue and inflate it like a bloon.
In truth pink bats school halls,you heave them on to a heap and say failure,got it right except for no more, not one bit more, than ten percent.
I do agree, that Minister failed.
I think public servants failed and still do the $900 to over seas,or the dead,showed we need a better public service.
Yet I feel honored by your telling me I am wrong.
I am unwell, would not bet on being here in 5 years, but in ten, those still around,in hindsight,will see these days as lost ones.
CONSERVATIVES will wish to forget them.
Some of Labors platform NBN Carbon tax will become,long before that your teams policy's.
Judge me on this, if this Parliament runs full term both Gillard and Abbott will not be leaders next election.
A Conservative Government will not roll back the NBN or Labors Carbon reduction scheme.
Yes I understand its a big swipe but confident it will be proven right.
Still bet even you can not tell me why Julia Gillard is still PM.
Cash for clunkers,so very many idiot ideas yet she leads still.

Belly,

I also prefer discourse without rancor.

As for your theory that the coalition will adopt the NBN and carbon tax, this I seriously doubt. The reason is that these two labor policies have at their core, many of the big "government knows best" social engineering features that are anathema to free markets.