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The Forum > General Discussion > NBN business plan begins to unravel.

NBN business plan begins to unravel.

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It is becoming increasingly apparent that the "business plan" of the NBN is based on very optimistic assumptions. Last week it became apparent that the 70% take up of the NBN packages on which it based its revenue stream was unlikely, and now there is serious doubt on its estimate of the cost of building the network as the price of labour is almost certain to rise.

"NBN Co chief executive Mike Quigley said recent natural disasters and the low unemployment rate posed a threat to the NBN Co business plan to build the wholesale network for $35.9 billion.......we will obviously go back to the shareholder -- the government -- and say this is what the position is, how would you like us to proceed."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/nbn-raises-labour-concerns/story-fn59niix-1226010402211

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/nbn-raises-labour-concerns/story-fn59niix-1226010402211
Posted by Shadow Minister, Wednesday, 23 February 2011 2:52:09 PM
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Too early to rejoice, Shadow Minister.

They have the police on their side, and so the easy alternative business-plan: to force us to buy into the NBN at gun-point.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Wednesday, 23 February 2011 8:17:55 PM
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5 10 15? How many such threads , the price has been as high as 45 billion in some, even the Australian say 36 billion.
I will be pilloried again SM,you will infer I do have understanding .
You will claim understanding and balance you do not have.
You,while completely unable to find fault with your team will say I am biased to the point of bigotry.
I leave you to it, this thread is about propaganda not debate.
About point scoring not investigating.
Go for it, Sir tell my why I am wrong.
Regards
Posted by Belly, Thursday, 24 February 2011 4:35:16 AM
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So belly, how much will you be paying for your NBN?

What options, plans etc, will be available to you?

What contract terms will be available to you?

Will you have to upgrade your computer to take advantage of the NBN?

I don't think this is about 'point scoring' at all.

It's about whether or not we should take the gamble to spend another 35 to 40 billion$ THAT WE DON'T HAVE.

The question that most ordinary Australians have, myself included, is, what's in it for me.

How much will I have to pay to have NBN at my house?

Will I have to pay this 'unknown amount' on top of what I already pay for my Internet services?

I say, look at the Clem 7 tunnel.

Clem 7 is a dud!

It cost billions, turned investors dollars in to cents all because the people refuse to pay a toll simply to use roads that should have been funded by the billions that QLD was GIFTED from mining royalties during the huge boom.

Now I ask you, did the government adopt similar consultancy practices as clem 7 to determine the viability of the NBN?

I have never been asked whether or not I want NBN. If I was, the first question I would ask is, how much will it cost?

Well, guess what, NOBODY KNOWS!

You see, politicians have no concept of what money buys. They don't pay phone bills, I doubt they would even know what plans are out there.

To them, it's just another 20 bucks a week. Well guess what, an increasing number of Aussies simply don't have another 20 bucks a week.

The NBN is a unknown quantity which makes it a huge gamble and one that we simply can't afford.

I am not saying no to the NBN, I am simply saying that we need a lot more info before we can go commiting that amount of money onto our overdraft account.
Posted by rehctub, Thursday, 24 February 2011 6:42:21 AM
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Dear Belly,

What Rehctub wrote is only half the story.
It is not only about money.

Of course nobody likes to pay for something they do not want to have, but the NBN is bad even if it was free, or even if we somehow received money for it instead of having to pay for it. It is social-engineering at its worst and it leads us in the wrong direction, away from the simple real-life further into virtual-land.

As I mentioned in other 5 10 15 threads (and you never replied to this offer), because you live out there in the bush and have a very poor phone and internet connection, I am happy for my tax-money to fund you a super-duper-deluxe-first-class connection, so long as you spare us, who live in cities and suburbs (that is 91% of Australians) and already have all that we need in terms of communication, that pain of losing our existing connections that we are happy with and having to be connected to the fibre-monster.
Posted by Yuyutsu, Thursday, 24 February 2011 9:51:46 AM
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Belly,

Your sad, old bleating of the same message is getting tired.

The NBN business plan (the sanitized version that has been released) offers a 7% return by 2025 predicated on:

1) - 70% customer uptake to generate the required revenue,
2) - Installation costs based on real costs over a number of years adjusted for inflation.

What is clear from recent publications is that the uptake is very likely not to reach 70% and thus the revenues will be lower than projected, and that the huge labour requirement is likely to raise costs higher than expected.

In summary, you have a huge project with a starting low rate of return that is likely to have reduced income and higher costs.

Even blind Freddy can see that this project has the same chance of success as the Clem 7, the Lane Cove tunnel, and the Cross city tunnel, which were all bankrupt within a year.
Posted by Shadow Minister, Thursday, 24 February 2011 10:32:14 AM
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