The Forum > General Discussion > How to demonstrate your sincerity as a global warming 'sceptic'
How to demonstrate your sincerity as a global warming 'sceptic'
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Scientists know that, on very short notice, it is possible that a cataclysmic meteor could strike the earth and devastate life on this planet at least as badly as GW. Surely then, according to the notion of "giving the planet the benefit of the doubt" we should be bending the worlds economy to building defences against the potential threat of such meteoric disasters?
The point is that there is no point dreaming up nightmare scenarios and then thinking "anything is better than that, so, no matter how unlikely that scenario, we should expend all our energies to avoiding it." There are just plain too many "nightmare scenarios" to deal with this way. The only sensible approach is to risk manage the challenges we face. That means assessing the risk of each challenge; the consequences of each challenge; and the cost of doing something about it; then weighing these issues up against other challenges before determining how we use our limited resources.
In the case of GW there may well be a consensus that it has broadly occurred over recent years, but no one can sensibly argue that there is anything like a quantitative consensus on the consequences, or our ability to influence it. Without answering these questions it is folly to commit ourselves to an economically catastrophic ETS, which is likely to considerably harm our ability to adapt to whatever global warming brings.
Even worse will be to lock in an ETS by signing an international treaty, when as any but the incredibly naïve know, outside the West, few countries will seriously enforce it. If you accept that, then the conclusion is almost inevitable that an international ETS will have the same effect as a tariff on the clean industries of the West and will instead promote the far more polluting industries of the developing world.
A globally endorsed ETS scheme will actually worsen the worlds emissions problems.