Dickie

ENSO is pretty much neutral and the 'little girl' is fading. Odds-on that her little brother will return next year. Since he is more long lasting than his sister, we can expect a continuation of the upward global trend (statistically speaking) in unowhat - some regions more so than others.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

It's a little more complicated, but you get the drift I am sure.

Thanks for that Q&A. I've requested monthly updates on the ENSO trends.

Cheers

Yes it is very complicated.It seems that both Dickie and Q&A don't have the answers,let alone ask the right questions.
Who would like to commit social and economic suicide with them,on the whim of an unproven theory?

"For every molecule of CO2 there are 2500 of other gases that make up our atmosphere.How is CO2 2500 times more powerful in retaining heat energy?"

Arjay

It is against my better judgement to respond to your "one up-manship" blatherings - particularly when you've manipulated Severinghaus's theories to accommodate your own bias.

Nevertheless, I shall (in my layman's terms) reiterate an example as my interpretation permits. I am happy to be corrected though I confess, preferably not by you unless you can remain on topic:

Methane, a powerful warming GHG, oxidises to CO2 and water.

Methane's atmospheric fate is some 10 years. CO2 is around a hundred -perhaps longer.

Scientists' remain concerned over the potential escape of emissions from the ocean's massive methane sinks, sinks which will react to an increased warming.

Atmospheric gases react with various oxidising agents in the atmosphere in which hydrocarbons are oxidised to CO2 and H2O. The most important of these oxidising agents is the hydroxyl radical.

Hydroxyl radical (OH) has the important property that it can react with reduced gases like hydrocarbons, removing one of their hydrogen atoms to form water (H2O).

Hydrocarbons become quite reactive when the first hydrogen has been removed and goes through a rapid chain reaction eventually resulting in CO2 and H2O.

Therefore, many of the "other gases" you refer to oxidise to carbon dioxide. That is one reason why scientists hold CO2 as the most powerful of all the warming gases and why you cannot reduce emissions of A/CO2 without reducing the emissions of all other fossil fuel gases.

Happily, new scientific revelations are frequently emerging to further enlighten the public.

However, the scientific fact will remain that "all things are bound together - all things connect."

Enough of your obfuscations Arjay - go figure!

Arjay,

I was responding to a question from Dickie ... it appears you have a problem with that, why?

____________

Dickie,

To clarify ... we can monitor changes in El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Walker Circulation using the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).

Power, S. B., and I. N. Smith, 2007 - Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18702, doi: 10.1029/2007GL030854

show that the lowest 30-year average value of the June–December SOI recently occurred. This coincided with the:

• Highest recorded value in mean sea-level pressure (Darwin)
• Weakest equatorial surface wind-stresses
• Highest tropical sea-surface temperatures on record.

They document what appears to be a concurrent period of unprecedented El Niño dominance. Their results, when coupled to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, suggest that the recent ENSO dominance might reflect a shift to a lower SOI mean.

This is important because it suggests that global warming now needs to be taken into account in both the formulation of ENSO indices and in the evaluation and exploitation of statistical links between ENSO and climate variability (natural and human induced) over the globe.

_____________

Arjay (again)

Contrary to your inane and misguided musings, this is good ‘question/answer’ because it could very well lead to the development of more accurate seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts.

Something of which farmers, irrigators, businesses and governments the world over (regardless of their left/right ideology you twerp) would be interested in.

Unfortunately, you just want to stick your head in the sand, raise your butt to the wind and generate a flatulent GHG rant – thanks for your invaluable input!

Here is another question for you RJ (asked elsewhere but not answered)...

Exactly whose interests are being served by the deliberate attempt of the ‘deny and delay brigade’ to engage in obfuscation, misrepresentation and gross distortion of the science

?